Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Is the DCCC Wasting its Money?

In Redistricting on February 1, 2011 at 8:44 am

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already on the attack, running radio ads this week against 19 Republican incumbents whom they believe will be vulnerable next year. According to the message in most of the spots, the member in question is being attacked for supporting the Republican spending cuts, which the Democrats’ say will tangentially stifle job creation.

The problem for the DCCC is that in nine of the 19 targeted districts, Republicans have full control of the redistricting pen, and to a person these members will be running in much stronger GOP districts in 2012. In only two of the 19 will the Democrats be able to change the districts to enhance their own party candidates (in Illinois — Reps. Bob Dold and Joe Walsh). In the remaining seats, the Ds and Rs have split control meaning that a redistricting commission or a court ultimately will decide how the final lines are constructed.

Until redistricting is complete, it is difficult to fully grasp how the new congressional districts will form. Therefore, the DCCC may be paying to educate large numbers of constituents who won’t even be eligible to vote against their particular target in the fall of 2012. Likely, the more cost-effective, short-term advertising strategy for both parties is to demonstrate patience.
__________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s