Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

New Political Heat in the Arizona Desert

In House, Redistricting, Senate on February 15, 2011 at 9:21 am

Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake (R-6)

More torrid political action is coming to Arizona. As expected, Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ-6) announced yesterday that he will leave the House at the end of next year to run for the Senate, now that Republican Whip Jon Kyl (R) has made his retirement plans known. Flake, who attracts some national attention for opposing earmarks and his fervent support of reducing government spending, may have the right message for a like-minded constituency at exactly the proper time. He certainly will be formidable in a Republican primary and, today, must be cast as the general election favorite too.

The Congressman’s short-term objective is to discourage other top Republicans from challenging him, thus making his road to the GOP nomination smooth and easy. Several already have officially declined to run, including former Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ-3) and freshmen Reps. Ben Quayle (R-AZ-3) and David Schweikert (R-AZ-5), in addition to retired NFL quarterback Kurt Warner. Another office-holder previously thinking about the Senate race has reportedly altered his plans. Russell Pearce, the Arizona Senate president, is said to be mounting a campaign for Flake’s open House seat, wherever it might be drawn, rather than enter the statewide fray.

The Flake decision also impacts redistricting. With an incumbent-less suburban Republican seat unprotected, it becomes easier for map drawers to make drastic changes in the congressional map.

Politics in the Grand Canyon State are still in a relative state of chaos, rendering it almost impossible to accurately forecast future elections. Considering this tentative back-drop, it appears that Mr. Flake’s decision to run for Senate is a sensible one.
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