Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Pennsylvania’s Q-Poll Reveals Pedestrian Obama Numbers

In Presidential campaign on June 16, 2011 at 10:16 pm

The new Quinnipiac University poll of the Pennsylvania electorate was just released and it shows President Obama with a discernible but not overwhelming lead over both former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and favorite son ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) within the Keystone State. The survey was commissioned over the June 7-12 period of 1,277 registered Pennsylvania voters. All of the interviews were conducted via telephone, both land line and cell. The Republican primary questions were asked of 523 self-identified GOP voters.

Against Romney, President Obama scores a 47-40 percent advantage, reasonably good but not outstanding for a sitting president heading into re-election in a state he previously carried. In 2008, the president carried Pennsylvania with a 54-44 percent margin. This poll also shows the president dipping below majority support, which is never a good sign. The state’s former two-term senator, Mr. Santorum, fares slightly worse than Romney before his previous constituents. Obama would top the former Pennsylvania senator and congressman 49-38 percent. These types of numbers in his home state confirm that Santorum is not a top tier national candidate.

In the Republican primary, it is Romney with the lead over both the former senator and ex-vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin. Mr. Romney tallies 21 percent to Santorum’s 16 percent, and Palin’s 11 percent. Businessman Herman Cain is fourth with 8 percent, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) next with 6 percent, and all other candidates have 5 percent or less.
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