Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Is the Republican Field Already Narrowing?

In Presidential campaign on July 20, 2011 at 10:18 am

Public Policy Polling (July 15-17; 730 US self-identified Republican voters) just released the results from their latest national political poll and though the 730 sample size is exceedingly low for a nationwide survey — thus raising the error factor considerably — the overall conclusions are plausible.

Capturing the sense that Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6) is surging into the top tier of the Republican presidential field of candidates, the PPP actually places her in first position at 21 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 20 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, included for the first time in a major national poll, places a respectable third with 12 percent. Retired businessman Herman Cain is next, attracting 11 percent.

The poll results are particularly good news for Bachmann and Perry. The data provides evidence of Bachmann’s upward mobility, just as political commentators, campaign professionals, and rank and file activists alike had previously professed. But, the question surrounding her fledging effort is: can she sustain this pace and momentum? Now favored to carry the upcoming Iowa Straw Poll event (Aug. 13), which is actually a major fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party since candidates pay thousands of dollars to participate, Bachmann could well be on the way to positioning herself to win the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses come February.

Gov. Perry, scoring in double-digits his first time out of the gate, is impressive and the numbers are a clear signal that he will be a serious candidate should he ultimately decide to run. Perry’s greatest asset is his record as the nation’s senior governor. Leading the rest of America in job creation, Texas continues to defy the poor domestic economic trends. In a campaign year where jobs will be the top issue upon which the general election candidates will run, Perry clearly has established his economic legitimacy. He has few deficiencies with which to contend, thus making him a strong potential opponent for President Obama.

The PPP poll again reveals some weakness for Romney. Commonly viewed as the front-runner in the race, this is the third poll that places him behind Bachmann and the first one to do so nationally. The other two state surveys that produced similar results, both Public Policy Polling studies, were in Iowa and New Mexico. Romney also has another glaring weakness. Regarding the healthcare issue during his tenure as governor, he instituted a quasi government run healthcare system for Massachusetts. According to the PPP study, only 17 percent of the respondents say they would be willing to vote for a candidate who supported a state-run healthcare program. By contrast, 66 percent said they are not willing to do so. Additionally, the fact that he again fails to break 20 percent in a survey continually reveals his low ceiling among the Republican electorate.

The second quarter financial reports for the presidential candidates are now public, and though most of the candidates had previously announced their dollar figures, it is again important to review the financial landscape.

The following link goes to a spreadsheet displaying all of the pertinent numbers: Presidential Financials 2nd Qtr 2011.
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For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com

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