Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Indiana Poll Shows Indiana’s Lugar Trailing in Primary

In Senate on July 27, 2011 at 9:39 am

A new small-sample poll (July 23-24; 500 likely Indiana GOP primary voters) forecasts six-term Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar (R) to be trailing his Republican primary opponent for the first time. According to Basswood Research, conducting the survey for the Club for Growth (which claims not to be currently endorsing anyone in this race but cannot be considered favorable toward Sen. Lugar), state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) has a 34-32 percent lead over the incumbent with a huge 34 percent responding as undecided.

The poll also asked their respondents to answer the following question: “Would you say the following statement is true or untrue? Richard Lugar has done some good things for Indiana, but after 35 years in Washington, it’s time for a change.” In a most troubling result for the Senator, 69 percent of the Republican polling sample answered “True.”

Mourdock has only raised money in the $300,000 range for the campaign, but independent expenditure and issue advocacy groups like the Club for Growth will bring added resources to the Lugar challenge. A poll that shows the incumbent polling only at 32 percent, regardless of the opponent’s level of support, is a sure sign of serious political weakness.

Democrats have their own credible candidate in the person of Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN-2). Should the Republican primary turn ugly and Lugar or Mourdock win a close and divisive nomination, Donnelly could be well-positioned to pick up the pieces and snatch the seat away from the Republicans in the general election.

Much will happen here in the remaining ten months before the Indiana primary.
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