Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

New Poll Confirms Big Perry Lead

In Polls, Presidential campaign on August 30, 2011 at 12:12 pm

Last week, Public Policy Polling (Aug. 18-21; 663 “usual” GOP primary voters) gave newly announced presidential candidate Rick Perry a substantial 33-20-16 percent lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-6). All other candidates scored only in the single-digit percentile. This week, the Opinion Research Council, polling for CNN (Aug. 24-25; 1,017 adults; 927 registered voters; 467 Republican primary voters), confirmed those results in almost identical fashion.

According to the new ORC/CNN data, Perry’s lead for the GOP nomination is 32-18-12 percent over Romney and Bachmann, respectively. Both the PPP and ORC/CNN studies are small-sample polls and carry high error factors, thus the exactness of the two conclusions becomes even more significant. Perry gained 14 points from the ORC/CNN’s early August survey (Aug. 5-8); Romney dropped five, and Bachmann increased her standing by three percentage points.

The ORC/CNN poll then included both former vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, both of whom could still conceivably become candidates, in their secondary presidential preference question. With the additions, Perry’s lead drops to 27 percent, Romney falls to 14 percent, and Palin places third with 10 percent. Bachman dips to 9 percent, which is the same number as Giuliani posts. It remains to be seen if the Perry juggernaut is long-standing, or just a bounce from his long-awaited and highly anticipated announcement speech.
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