Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Interesting Michigan Polls

In House, Polling, Senate on July 26, 2012 at 1:04 pm

With the Michigan primary fast approaching on Aug. 7, some new numbers suggest a tightening of the US Senate race while a separate poll provides a clue as to how a reapportionment-created incumbent pairing might end.

Rasmussen Reports (July 23; 500 likely Michigan voters) delivers findings that are much different from other previously published polls. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) has been consistently running substantially ahead of former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI-2). Looking at four polls conducted since May 1, including an earlier one from Rasmussen, Stabenow has led Hoekstra by an average of 12 points. In the latest RR July survey, her lead has shrunk to just six, 46-40 percent. When paired with Hoekstra’s Republican primary opponent, attorney and charter schools advocate Clark Durant, the senator’s advantage is 47-39 percent.

Durant has been trailing badly in polling but is now making a serious stretch drive effort, spending the more than $2 million he has raised for the race and benefiting from at least one $400,000 Super PAC expenditure. Hoekstra, however, is still the heavy favorite for the party nomination.

Turning to Detroit, two-term Rep. Gary Peters’ (D-MI-9) move to the 14th District in order to challenge his Democratic colleague, freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-MI-13), may yet pay dividends. Despite the large African-American population in the 14th, Peters’ strategy of splitting the black vote among several candidates appears to be working. According to an automated 685 likely Democratic voter survey for local Fox 2 News, Peters has a 45-27 percent lead over Clarke, with the three second-tier candidates dividing the remaining votes.

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