Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Sherman Up 17 Points in CA-30

In House, Polling on July 27, 2012 at 1:37 pm

In California, a just-released Feldman Group poll (July 14-19; 503 registered CA-30 voters) for Rep. Brad Sherman’s (D-CA-27) campaign gives their client a 46-29 percent advantage over fellow Democratic Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA-28) in this much-publicized general election incumbent pairing.

The new 30th District is a western San Fernando Valley congressional seat anchored in the cities of Sherman Oaks, Encino, Woodland Hills, and Northridge. Sherman represents 58 percent of the new constituency, while Berman only sees a 20 percent carry-over from his present district. The seat is heavily Democratic. Both men have spent a combined $6.8 million through June 30. The campaign has the potential of becoming the most expensive race in the history of the House of Representatives.

Under California’s new primary system, the top two candidates advance to the general election regardless of political party affiliation. The results yielded six Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, of which CA-30 is one, and two Republican on Republican.

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