Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Archive for November 8th, 2012|Daily archive page

Outstanding House Races; Incumbents Who Are Gone

In House, Senate on November 8, 2012 at 12:24 pm

We have a couple lists for you today — House races that are still unresolved and incumbents who lost their re-election attempts.

Here’s the latest on the outstanding House races:

  • AZ-1: One that was in the balance late last night, but is no longer, AZ-1 was called late last night for former Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), who will now return to the House after being out for one term. She defeats former Republican state Sen. Jonathan Paton. This is a pick-up for the Ds.
  • AZ-2: Republican Martha McSally has pulled into the lead over Rep. Ron Barber (D) by a scant 426 votes, down from almost 1,300 earlier in the day. More than 20,000 ballots remain to be counted, so this race is far from over. A McSally victory would be a huge upset for the Republicans.
  • AZ-9: The new seat awarded the state in reapportionment is also in political overtime. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has a 2,715-vote lead over Republican Vernon Parker, but there are more than 70,000 still outstanding. This is another race that could go either way.
  • CA-7: Rep. Dan Lungren (R) and challenger Ami Bera (D) are locked in a tight battle. Currently, Bera has a 184 vote lead, but more than 50,000 ballots still remain to be counted. This race can still go either way.
  • CA-36: Things appear to be confused in the Palm Desert region. The election officers are reporting 100% of the votes counted with Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) trailing challenger Raul Ruiz by 4,557 votes. Only 162,247 ballots are showing as being cast, however, a number far smaller than the average number of votes per CD, which now typically gets close to, or exceeds, 300,000. The race has not been called, but Ruiz is claiming victory. Being down by almost 5,000 votes is obviously not good for Bono Mack. Though the race is not official yet, the clear trend is pointing to a Ruiz upset victory.
  • CA-52: Like California’s 7th District as noted above, more than 50,000 ballots also remain to be counted here. Of the votes tabulated so far, Democratic challenger Scott Peters has a 685-vote lead over Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) with more than 207,000 ballots already counted. This one could also go either way.
  • FL-18: Rep. Allen West (R) is down 2,456 votes, but provisional ballots remain and the congressman is asking for an investigation in Port St. Lucie for voting irregularities. Apparently, the West forces are claiming that many ballots were double-counted. We will continue to monitor this race, but the odds now clearly favor challenger Patrick Murphy (D), who has already declared victory.
  • NC-7: Another race that will likely be decided by a razor-thin margin features Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) and state Sen. David Rouzer (R) in southeast North Carolina. Currently, McIntyre leads by a scant 533 votes, but approximately 4,000 provisional votes remain uncounted, as do at least 500 military ballots. A total of 1,500 are from Rouzer’s home county of Johnston, a place he carried with a margin greater than 60% on Tuesday night.
  • UT-4: In yet another stunning display of political ability and acumen, Rep. Jim Matheson (D) again withstood another tough challenge, this time from budding national political star Mia Love (R), to win another term in the House. The margin is 2,646 votes and appears to be final. Reapportionment added a new seat in Utah and though this may be the state’s most marginal seat, it is likely that Pres. Barack Obama failed to even break 40%. Thus, Rep. Matheson had the opportunity of displaying yet another tenet in the art of political survival.

The following incumbents have officially lost their seats:

Senate:

  • MA: Sen. Scott Brown (R) to Elizabeth Warren (D)

House:

  • CA-15: Rep. Pete Stark (D), first elected in 1972, falls to fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell.
  • CA-30: Rep. Howard Berman (D) loses to fellow Rep. Brad Sherman (D) in one of the nation’s most expensive campaigns.
  • CA-35: Rep. Joe Baca (D), who left his home town of Rialto to run in this Ontario-based seat, loses to state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D)
  • CA-44: Rep. Laura Richardson (D) succumbs to her Democratic colleague, Rep. Janice Hahn.
  • FL-26: Scandal and the taint of scandal caused freshman David Rivera (R) to fall to Democratic challenger Joe Garcia.
  • IL-8: Rep. Joe Walsh (R), as was expected because of his poor draw in redistricting, loses to VA former Asst. Sec. Tammy Duckworth (D).
  • IL-10: By the slimmest of margins, Rep. Bob Dold (R) becomes another victim of redistricting circumstance. Tax accountant Brad Schneider (D) becomes the new congressman.
  • IL-11: Rep. Judy Biggert (R), who represented only 48% of this CD, falls hard to former Rep. Bill Foster, 42-58%.
  • IL-17: Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) was unseated by East Moline local official Cheri Bustos (D). Again, it was redistricting that became the overriding issue in this CD.
  • IA-3: In a paired incumbents situation, Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) loses after 16 years in the House to fellow Rep. Tom Latham (R).
  • KY-6: After barely surviving in the last election, this year Rep. Ben Chandler (D) does lose his re-match to attorney Andy Barr (R).
  • MD-6: Being redistricted deep into unfriendly territory in Montgomery County, Frederick Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R), now 86 years old, loses his seat to businessman John Delaney (D), an upset winner in the April Democratic primary.
  • MN-8: In another race that ended in an unsurprising fashion, former Rep. Rick Nolan, who left the House all the way back in 1980, now returns as a new freshman. He defeated freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) in a very heavily Democratic district.
  • NH-1: Capping off a strongly Democratic night that foretold a New Hampshire sweep, Rep. Frank Guinta (R) failed to win re-election against the woman he beat two years ago, ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D).
  • NH-2: In the more Democratic of New Hampshire’s two congressional districts, veteran Rep. Charlie Bass (R), who returned to the House in 2010 after being beaten four years earlier, loses as an incumbent for the second time. Lobbyist Ann McLane Kuster, who stumbled against Bass by just one point two years ago, comes back in 2012 to finish the job.
  • NY-18: In a tough race with a relative surprise ending, freshman Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) falls to Wall Street attorney Sean Maloney (D).
  • NY-24: A major upset winner in 2010, and facing an even more difficult district this time around, Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, like Guinta from New Hampshire above, finds herself on the losing end of a close race, also in a re-match. Former Rep. Dan Maffei (D) will also return to the House.
  • NY-27: In a district that was made the most Republican of all 27 NY CDs, former Erie County Executive Chris Collins (R) unseated Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) to return the seat to the GOP column.
  • NC-8: Former congressional staff member Richard Hudson will now return to Washington as a member of the House, following his unseating of two-term Rep. Larry Kissell (D).
  • OH-16: In a paired incumbents situation due to Ohio losing two seats in the national reapportionment formula, Rep. Betty Sutton (D) loses to freshman Rep. Jim Renacci (R), after a hard-fought race.
  • PA-12: Originally, Rep. Mark Critz (D) was paired with fellow Democrat Jason Altmire. While he survived the Democratic primary against another incumbent congressman, he couldn’t withstand the GOP general election battle. Critz lost to businessman Keith Rothfus, who held Altmire to only a 51-49% victory in 2010.
  • TX-23: Another re-election casualty was freshman Quico Canseco (R), who lost his difficult district, both politically and geographically, to state Rep. Pete Gallego (D).

Who is David Curson?

In House, Reapportionment on November 8, 2012 at 11:59 am

David Curson

Technically, we will have a 436th member of Congress, at least for the short-term. In Michigan’s 11th District, Republican Kerry Bentivolio won the regular election and will replace McCotter’ in January. The seat became vacant when former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) resigned before the election. But Bentivolio won’t be the immediate successor. Because McCotter resigned well before the end of the term, Democratic United Auto Workers union staff member David Curson won a concurrent special election that was held in the previous 11th CD, not the one created through reapportionment for this ensuing decade. Though Bentivolio won the full term, he lost the special election to Curson. Dr. Syed Taj, the party’s nominee for the regular term did not run in the special election.

Curson’s election means he will immediately be sworn into Congress and participate in the lame duck session, serving in November and December. His term will end at the beginning of January when the new House is inducted, and Bentivolio will then take the oath of office. At that point, Curson’s short-lived congressional career will come to an end.

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