Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Montana’s Baucus is Vulnerable

In Polling, Senate on February 21, 2013 at 10:53 am

A new Public Policy Polling survey (Feb. 15-17; 1,011 registered Montana voters; 371 “usual” Democratic primary voters) shows clear vulnerability for Senate Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus (D-MT). The senator, first elected in 1978, is preparing a run for a seventh term next year. Prior to his service in the Senate, Baucus spent four years in the US House of Representatives.

While the senator’s numbers aren’t particularly strong, he fares much worse against individuals unlikely to challenge him. Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D), who has repeatedly said he has no intention of running for the Senate, compares very well to Baucus if he were to oppose him in the Democratic primary. According to the survey results, the ex-two-term governor would bury the veteran federal incumbent 54-35 percent. Schweitzer’s personal favorability index registers a strong 56:37 percent positive to negative. In contrast, Sen. Baucus’ job approval ratio is an upside down 45:48 percent.

Three Republicans are highly competitive with the senator, but at least two of them won’t become candidates. Former Gov. Marc Racicot (R) leads Baucus 47-42 percent. Freshman Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT-AL) enjoys a 49-44 percent margin over the incumbent. Newly elected Attorney General Tim Fox (R) trails Baucus only 43-46 percent.

When paired individually against the two Republicans who have announced a campaign for the Senate — ex-state Senate Minority Leader Corey Stapleton and state Rep. Champ Edmunds — Sen. Baucus re-establishes healthy leads. He tops Stapleton 45-38 percent, while posting a full 10-point advantage over Edmunds, 47-37 percent.

The early data tells us that Baucus is in relatively good shape against his virtually unknown Republican opponents. The fact that he is below 50 percent against even candidates with low name identification, however, clearly shows some political weakness. If one of the big-name Montana politicians decides to enter the race, either in the primary or general elections, then the Senator’s victory chances dim seriously.

Republicans, who are looking to convert six Democratic seats in 2014 to wrest away the Senate majority, must look at all opportunities. Clearly, the quality of their eventual nominee will be a major factor in determining if they can dethrone Sen. Baucus after what will be 40 consecutive years representing the state in Washington. This is yet another race to watch.

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