Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Yes, No, Maybe So

In Election Analysis, Senate on February 22, 2013 at 6:05 pm

Some of the 2014 US Senate races are already beginning to take shape, while others have yet to develop.

In just the past few days, political insiders in central Georgia are reporting that Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-GA-2) is telling supporters that he is seriously considering entering the open Senate race. In Iowa, others are saying that while Rep. Steve King (R-IA-4) is moving toward running for his state’s open Senate seat, Rep. Tom Latham (R-IA-3) is more likely to seek re-election than run statewide.

Below is a quick snap-shot of the candidate situation in what are expected to be the more hotly contested Senate campaigns of the election cycle:

  • ALASKA: Sen. Mark Begich (D) – Seeking his second term
    • In: Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R)
    • Possible: Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan (R)
    • Unlikely: Gov. Sean Parnell (R)
    • Out: Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R)
  • ARKANSAS: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) – Seeking his third term
    • In: Lt. Gov. Mike Darr (R)
    • Possible: Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4)
    • Out: Rep. Tim Griffin (R-AR-2)
  • GEORGIA: Open Seat – Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) – Retiring
    • In: Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA-10)
    • Likely: Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-GA-11)
    • Possible: Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1), Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-GA-2), Rep. Tom Price (R-GA-6), Rep. John Barrow (D-GA-12), Sec of State Brian Kemp (R)
    • Unlikely: Former Sen. Max Cleland (D), former Sec of State Karen Handel (R), Mayor Kasim Reed (D)
    • Out: Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA-3)

  • HAWAII: Appointed Sen. Brian Schatz (D) running for unexpired term
    • Possible: Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1)
  • IOWA: Open Seat – Sen. Tom Harkin (D) – Retiring
    • In: Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA-1)
    • Likely: Rep. Steve King (R-IA-4)
    • Possible: Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), Fmr. Gov. Candidate Bob Vander Platts (R)
    • Unlikely: Rep. Tom Latham (R-IA-3)
    • Out: Gov. Terry Branstad (R), US Ag Sec/fmr. Gov. Tom Vilsack (D)
  • KENTUCKY: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) seeking his sixth term
    • Possible: Actress Ashley Judd (D), State Auditor Edelen (D), Secretary of State Alison Grimes (D)
  • LOUISIANA: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) seeking her fourth term
    • Likely: Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA-6)
    • Possible: Former Rep. Jeff Landry (R-LA-3), State Board of Ed. Dir. Chas Roemer (R)
    • Unlikely: Rep. John Fleming (R-LA-4)
  • MASSACHUSETTS: Special Election Replacing Sec of State John Kerry
    • In: Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5), Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8), former Congressional Nominee Sean Bielat (R-MA-4), Ex-US Attorney Michael Sullivan (R), State Rep. Dan Winslow (R)
  • MONTANA: Sen. Max Baucus (D) seeking his seventh term
    • In: Senate Minority Leader Corey Stapleton (R), State Rep. Champ Edmunds (R)
    • Possible: Attorney General Tim Fox (R)
    • Unlikely: Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D), former Gov. Marc Racicot (R), Rep. Steve Daines (R-MT-AL)
    • Out: Former Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT-AL)
  • NEBRASKA: Open Seat – Sen. Mike Johanns (R) – Retiring
    • Possible: Gov. Dave Heineman (R), Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE-1), Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE-3), Fmr. State Treasurer Shane Osborn, Mayor Chris Beutler (D)
    • Unlikely: Rep. Lee Terry (R-NE-2)
  • NEW JERSEY: Open Seat – Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) – Retiring
    • In: Mayor Cory Booker (D)
    • Likely: Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ-6), Senate President Steve Sweeney (D)
    • Possible: Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ-12)
    • Out: Rep. Rob Andrews (D-NJ-1)
  • NORTH CAROLINA: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) seeking her second term
    • Possible: Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC-10), House Speaker Thom Tillis (R)
    • Unlikely: Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC-2), Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC-5)
    • Out: Gov. Pat McCrory (R)
  • SOUTH DAKOTA: Sen. Tim Johnson (D) – has not announced political plans
    • In: Former Gov. Mike Rounds (R)
  • WEST VIRGINIA: Open Seat – Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) – Retiring
    • In: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2)
    • Possible: Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis (D), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D), former WV Democratic Chairman Mike Callaghan (D)
    • Unlikely: Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D), former Gov. Gaston Caperton (D), Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV-3)
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: