Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Upward Mobility

In Election Analysis, House, Senate on March 11, 2013 at 12:53 pm

Even at this early point in the 2014 election cycle, a grand total of 32 House members have either indicated they will run for another office or are mentioned as considering doing so. Below is a listing:

  • Arkansas – Rep. Tom Cotton (R) – reportedly moving toward a challenge to Sen. Mark Pryor (D), but has yet to finally decide.
  • Georgia – The free-for-all to replace retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) is touching a large number of Georgia House delegation members.
    • Rep. John Barrow (D) – has twice publicly said he has no plans to run for Senate, but may now be changing his mind. He is reportedly pressuring Democratic Party leaders to help clear the primary field so he has the maximum amount of time to raise general election funds without the pressure of a primary.
    • Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) – though he has received little coverage about a possible Senate bid, Mr. Bishop has reportedly been telling people in his 2nd District that he is seriously considering running for the seat.
    • Rep. Paul Broun (R) – announced Senatorial candidate
    • Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) – Georgia political insiders rate him as “very likely” to run for Senate.
    • Rep. Tom Graves (R) – announced that he will not run for Senate.
    • Rep. Jack Kingston (R) – clearly making moves to run for the Senate but has been known in the past to shy away from taking political chances. Today, he is a likely candidate, but that may change when next year’s filing deadline approaches.
    • Rep. Tom Price (R) – originally thought to be a sure Senatorial candidate, Mr. Price is now putting off making a decision until mid-May. Insiders are reporting the Congressman is expressing reluctance over leaving his position in the House, thus he may pass on the Senate race.
    • Rep. Austin Scott (R) – just this past week Mr. Scott received a mention about him considering the Senate race. Developing.
  • Hawaii – Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) – After being by-passed for the interim Senate appointment when Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) passed away, Ms. Hanabusa has publicly stated that she is considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to appointed-Sen. Brian Schatz or even Gov. Neil Abercrombie. She also has not ruled out seeking re-election.
  • Illinois – Rep. Aaron Schock (R) – seriously considering a race for Governor
  • Iowa
    • Rep. Bruce Braley (D) – announced candidate for retiring Sen. Tom Harkin’s (D) open seat
    • Rep. Steve King (R) – likely candidate for Senate
    • Rep. Tom Latham (R) – announced he will not run for Senate
  • Louisiana
    • Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) – likely Senate candidate against incumbent Mary Landrieu (D).
    • Rep. John Fleming (R) – considering a challenge to Landrieu.
  • Maine – Rep. Mike Michaud (D) – publicly confirmed during the past week that he is considering a race for Governor against incumbent Paul LePage (R) and Independent candidate Eliot Cutler.
  • Massachusetts
    • Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) – running in the special election to replace interim Senator Mo Cowan (D). Since this is a special election, Lynch will not have to relinquish his congressional seat if unsuccessful in his statewide effort.
    • Rep. Ed Markey (D) – in the same situation as Mr. Lynch
  • Michigan
    • Sen. Carl Levin’s (D) retirement announcement has set the congressional delegation into motion.
    • Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) – may now consider a Senate bid, but unlikely to run.
    • Rep. Justin Amash (R) – a definite statewide possibility
    • Rep. Candice Miller (R) – as a former statewide official with strong fundraising ability, Rep. Miller would have to be considered as a viable Republican contender in an open seat situation.
    • Rep. Gary Peters (D) – shaping up as a strong potential challenger to Gov. Rick Snyder (R), but is also a top option to enter the now open Senate race. He probably runs for one of the two positions.
  • Minnesota – Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) – there has been some talk about him challenging Sen. Al Franken (D), but is unlikely to do so.
  • Nebraska
    • Sen. Mike Johanns’ (R) retirement after one term has put the congressional delegation on political alert. All are awaiting to see if Gov. Dave Heineman (R) decides to run, about which he remains mum.
    • Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) – likely to run for Senate if Gov. Heineman does not.
    • Rep. Adrian Smith (R) – possible Senate candidate if Gov. Heineman decides against making the race.
  • New Jersey
    • Rep. Frank Pallone (D) – possible Senate candidate for retiring incumbent Frank Lautenberg’s (D) seat, but has yet to announce any plans.
    • Rep. Rush Holt (D) – publicly said he is considering running for the Senate, but is unlikely to follow through.
  • North Carolina – Rep. Patrick McHenry (R) – his name pops up as a potential challenger to Sen. Kay Hagan (D), and is really the only House member in a credible position to run, but has been very quiet about his 2014 plans.
  • Ohio – Rep. Tim Ryan (D) – publicly acknowledged considering a challenge to Gov. John Kasich (R), but is unlikely to run.
  • Pennsylvania – Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) – has told PA reporters that she will challenge Gov. Tom Corbett (R), but has not yet made a formal announcement of candidacy.
  • West Virginia
    • Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) – announced Senate candidate for the retiring Jay Rockefeller’s (D) seat.
    • Rep. Nick Rahall (D) – mentioned as probably the Democrats’ best potential opponent for Ms. Capito, but has yet to indicate that he will run. At this time, he appears to be making no concrete moves toward organizing a statewide campaign.
  • Wisconsin – Rep. Ron Kind (D) – often mentioned as a statewide candidate, for Governor in the case of 2014, but has yet to enter a race. The same pattern will likely re-occur next year.
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