Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Money Talks

In Financials, House, Senate on April 17, 2013 at 11:08 am

The first quarter financial disclosure statements have been filed for House incumbents and challengers and, as always, the fundraising amounts tell many tales. Naturally, the most prolific fundraisers are elected partisan leaders or committee chairmen, but this report is more indicative about those in marginal districts or who are committed to, or considering, a bid for statewide office. The axiom of the most committed candidates being the best early fundraisers again rings true during the current period.

Looking at the rank-and-file House incumbents and candidates, particularly those newly-elected congressmen, it appears that $300,000 raised for the quarter beginning Jan. 1, 2013 is the benchmark. Grading on a curve, anyone attaining or exceeding this level has earned first tier political status.

Best Fundraisers

The top fundraising House district can be found in the Denver suburbs, where 6th District Rep. Mike Coffman (R) and Democratic challenger Andrew Romanoff (D), the former state House Speaker and defeated Senatorial candidate (2010; losing the Democratic nomination to then-appointed Sen. Michael Bennet), both exceeded $500,000 in recorded campaign receipts for the first quarter.

Coffman raised $510,000, just behind Romanoff’s $514,000. The challenger has about a $100,000 edge in cash-on-hand. The court-drawn redistricting map presented Coffman with a much more Democratic district than the one to which he was originally elected in 2008. He was victorious in 2012, obviously, but did not reach the 50 percent plateau, winning re-election with 48 percent of the vote. The mid-term turnout pattern should help Coffman, but Romanoff is likely a stronger opponent than former state Rep. Miklosi, the congressman’s opponent last November.

The runner-up district is New York’s 11th CD, where Rep. Michael Grimm (R) banked $321,000, but announced candidate Domenic Recchia (D), a New York City councilman, out-performed him. Recchia raised $412,000.

Senate Contenders

Looking at these numbers through a Senate candidate prism, several sitting House members are beginning strongly. In what will be a hotly contested Georgia senatorial race among several House members and others, announced candidate Phil Gingrey (R-GA-11) raised more than $666,000 and has $2.4 million in the bank. This is considerably more than announced candidate Paul Broun (R-GA-10), who banked $209,000 and has only $217,000 cash-on-hand.

Among likely but not official candidates, Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1) certainly seems serious about a potential run, at least in the early going, gathering $846,000 ($1.8 million cash on hand, or CoH). Rep. Tom Price (R-GA-6), who appears less likely to run as time progresses, still had a very active fundraising quarter, bringing in $571,000 and has $2.1 million in his congressional campaign account. Rep. John Barrow (D-GA-12), who may run on the Democratic side, raised $417,000 and has $440,000 in his campaign account. Barrow had a very competitive 2012 re-election campaign, thus accounting for his lesser assets at the beginning of first quarter 2013.

In Michigan, presumed Democratic senatorial candidate Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14) banked $371,000 and has $813,000 in his federal campaign account. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI-8), said to be “seriously considering” entering the campaign, only raised $164,000 in the first quarter, but still has $1.4 million in the bank, meaning he can take more time to decide whether he runs for the Senate or House in 2014.

On the other end of the spectrum might be Rep. Steve King (R-IA-4). Last week he made some comments in an interview suggesting that his run for the Senate is anything but certain. The fundraising totals underscore that the odds now favor King remaining in the House rather than embarking upon a statewide run. He raised only $87,000 in the first quarter, and possesses just $90,000 cash-on-hand after a difficult 2012 re-election campaign. By contrast, Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA-1), already an announced senatorial candidate in the open seat, raised $1.1 million and has $1 million in the bank.

$300,000 +

The non-leadership, non-committee chair House incumbents and challengers raising $300,000 or more, are as follows:

AR-4 – Rep. Tom Cotton (R) – $523,000, freshman; possible Senate run
AZ-1 – Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) – $310,000; seeking re-election
AZ-9 – Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) – $324,000; freshman; seeking re-election
CA-7 – Rep. Ami Bera (D) – $300,000; freshman; seeking re-election
CA-36 – Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) – $360,000; freshman; seeking re-election
CO-6 – Rep. Mike Coffman (R) – $510,000; seeking re-election
CO-6 – Andrew Romanoff (D) – $514,000; challenger
FL-16 – Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) – $408,000; seeking re-election
FL-18 – Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) – $537,000; freshman; seeking re-election
FL-22 – Rep. Lois Frankel (D) – $302,000; freshman; seeking re-election
FL-26 – Rep. Joe Garcia (D) – $547,000; freshman; seeking re-election
GA-1 – Rep. Jack Kingston (R) – $843,000; potential Senate candidate
GA-6 – Rep. Tom Price (R) – $543,000; potential Senate candidate
GA-11 – Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) – $666,000; announced Senate candidate
GA-12 – Rep. John Barrow (D) – $417,000; potential Senate candidate
IA-3 – Rep. Tom Latham (R) – $301,000; seeking re-election
IL-8 – Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) – $351,000; freshman; seeking re-election
IL-10 – Rep. Brad Schneider (D) – $390,000; freshman; seeking re-election
IL-13 – Rep. Rodney Davis (R) – $390,000; freshman; seeking re-election
KS-3 – Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) – $333,000; seeking re-election
KY-6 – Rep. Andy Barr (R) – $362,000; freshman; seeking re-election
LA-6 – Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) – $501,000; announced Senate candidate
MI-14 – Rep. Gary Peters (D) – $371,000; potential Senate candidate
MN-3 – Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) – $359,000; seeking re-election
MN-6 – Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) – $673,000; seeking re-election
NH-2 – Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D) – $317,000; freshman; seeking re-election
NJ-6 – Rep. Frank Pallone (D) – $460,000; potential Senate candidate
NY-4 – Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) – $311,000; seeking re-election
NY-11 – Rep. Michael Grimm (R) – $321,000; seeking re-election
NY-11 – Domenic Recchia (D) – $412,000; challenger
NY-17 – Rep. Nita Lowey (D) – $317,000; seeking re-election
NY-18 – Rep. Sean Maloney (D) – $515,000; freshman; seeking re-election
NY-19 – Sean Eldridge (D) – $311,000; challenger
NY-24 – Rep. Dan Maffei (D) – $306,000; seeking re-election
OH-12 – Rep. Pat Tiberi (R) – $401,000; seeking re-election
OH-15 – Rep. Steve Stivers (R) – $339,000; seeking re-election
PA-8 – Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) – $302,000; seeking re-election
PA-13 – Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) – $416,000; announced candidate for Governor
PA-18 – Rep. Tim Murphy (R) – $318,000; seeking re-election
TN-4 – Jim Tracy (R) – $437,000; announced GOP primary challenger (Rep. Scott DesJarlais)
TN-8 – Rep. Stephen Fincher (R) – $329,000; seeking re-election
TX-11 – Rep. Mike Conaway (R) – $362,000; seeking re-election
TX-25 – Rep. Roger Williams (R) – $329,000; freshman; seeking re-election
VA-11 – Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) – $368,000; seeking re-election

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: