Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

The Return of Anthony Weiner?

In Mayor, Polls on April 23, 2013 at 10:42 am

Last week, former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY-9) who resigned from the House in disgrace in 2011, said publicly that he is at least contemplating a 2013 run for mayor of New York. This week, Quinnipiac University released their current poll of the race (April 15-18; 1,161 registered New York City voters; 740 Democrats) that shows Weiner in second position even though his popularity index is an upside down 33:41 percent favorable to unfavorable.

According to the data, Weiner scores support from 15 percent of the Democrats polled, compared to NYC Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s 28 percent. Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, former city comptroller William Thompson, and current City Comptroller John Liu follow with 11, 10, and 9 percent, respectively. Of the entire group, Thompson has, at 32:9 percent, the strongest favorability ratio but it is not as yet translating into stated support.

Days earlier, the Marist Poll (April 11-15; 873 Democratic New York city voters) showed almost identical results. According to this data, Quinn leads with 26 percent; Weiner was again second with an identical 15 percent, and Liu, de Blasio, and Thompson follow with 12 percent, 11 percent, and 11 percent, respectively.

Weiner still has some time to decide whether to run. Mandatory “designating petitions” can be circulated beginning June 4, with the requisite number being returned no later than July 11. The primary election is scheduled for Sept. 10. If no candidate receives 40 percent plus one vote, the top two will participate in a special run-off election scheduled for Sept. 24. The municipal general election is Nov. 5.

The leading Republican candidate is Metropolitan Transportation Authority Board chairman Joe Lhota. It is clear from the polling, however, that the Democratic primary and likely run-off will determine the identity of the next mayor. Lhota is substantially behind all of the Democratic candidates, even Wiener though the Republican does perform best against him. According to the Quinnipiac survey, Weiner is the choice of 51 percent of those tested versus just 26 percent who voiced support for Lhota.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) is ineligible to seek a fourth term. Previously, he was able to undo the city’s two-term limit, expanding it to three, but no such effort was expended to extend his tenure past 2013.

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