Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Archive for May 9th, 2013|Daily archive page

Two VA Polls: A Trending Cuccinelli

In Governor on May 9, 2013 at 3:57 pm
Ken Cuccinelli (R)

Ken Cuccinelli (R)

NBC News/Marist College and the Washington Post Media organization surveyed the Virginia electorate within the last week and though they report some different results, both show that Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe each can win the general election to be Virginia’s next governor.

The Washington Post Media poll (April 29-May 2; 887 registered Virginia voters) gives Cuccinelli a 46-41 percent lead and a major 51-41 percent advantage among an undisclosed number of “likely voters.” NBC/Marist (April 28-May 2; 1,095 registered Virginia voters; 692 likely election participants) posts McAuliffe to a 43-41 percent lead, but shows him trailing 42-45 percent among likely voters.

Remembering that Virginia holds it state elections in odd-numbered years, thus yielding a lower voter turnout, the “likely voter” category appears to be more important. There, both surveys agree that Cuccinelli has a discernible edge.

While the NBC poll shows positive personal ratings for both candidates — Cuccinelli 42:27 percent favorable to unfavorable; McAuliffe 32:24 percent — familiarity with each is low and both are largely a blank slate.

The Washington Post survey delved more deeply into the impressions of each candidate and found that people don’t yet associate anything in particular with either man. When asked what the respondents  Continue reading >

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