Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Senate Candidate Update

In Election Analysis, Senate on June 21, 2013 at 12:36 pm

Continuing our periodic reporting about who is currently running for the Senate next year, below is the latest look.

The following 13 senators do not yet have an announced significant opponent:

  1. Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama)
  2. Chris Coons (D-Delaware)
  3. Jim Risch (R-Idaho)
  4. Pat Roberts (R-Kansas)
  5. Susan Collins (R-Maine)
  6. Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi)
  7. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon)
  8. Jack Reed (D-Rhode Island)
  9. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina – special election)
  10. Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee)
  11. John Cornyn (R-Texas)
  12. Mark Warner (D-Virginia)
  13. Mike Enzi (R-Wyoming)

And the remaining state match-ups:

Alaska
Incumbent: Sen. Mark Begich (D) – originally elected 2008
Republicans: Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell
Joe Miller – 2010 nominee who defeated Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the GOP primary
Arkansas
Incumbent: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) – originally elected 2002
Republicans: Lt. Gov. Mark Darr
Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4)
Notes: Rep. Cotton is a possible candidate. Lt. Gov. Darr is highly likely to run for a different office than the one he currently holds. He announced his intention to run for the Senate but there is a good chance, should Mr. Cotton enter the statewide campaign, that he would instead run for the Congressman’s vacated 4th Congressional District.

Colorado
Incumbent: Sen. Mark Udall (D) – originally elected 2008
Republican: Jaime McMillan – Businessman
Georgia
Incumbent: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) – originally elected 2002; not seeking re-election
Republicans: Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA-10)
Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-GA-11)
Former Secretary of State Karen Handel
Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1)
David Perdue – Former Reebok and Dollar General CEO
Democrat: Michelle Nunn – Non-Profit ED; daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn
Note: Ms. Nunn is not yet an announced candidate.
Hawaii (Special Election)
Incumbent: Sen. Brian Schatz (D) – appointed 2013
Democrat: Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1)
Illinois
Incumbent: Sen. Dick Durbin (D) – originally elected 1996
Republican: Chad Koppie – Kane County School Board Member
Iowa
Incumbent: Sen. Tom Harkin (D) – originally elected 1984; not seeking re-election
Democrat: Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA-1)
Republicans: Matt Whitaker – former US Attorney
David Young – former Chief of Staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R)
Kentucky
Incumbent: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) – originally elected 1984
Democrat: Alison Lundergan Grimes – Secretary of State
Notes: Ms. Grimes is being heavily recruited to run, but so far has resisted entering the race. It is becoming more unlikely that she will do so. If she passes, Sen. McConnell could face only minor candidates.
Louisiana
Incumbent: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) – originally elected 1996
Republican: Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA-6)
Massachusetts (Special Election)
Incumbent: Sen. Mo Cowan (D) – appointed 2013; not seeking election
Democrat: Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5)
Republican: Gabriel Gomez – Businessman
Michigan
Incumbent: Sen. Carl Levin (D) – originally elected 1978; not seeking re-election
Democrat: Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14)
Republican: Terri Lynn Land – former Secretary of State
Minnesota
Incumbent: Sen. Al Franken (D) – originally elected 2008
Democrat: Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14)
Republicans: Jim Abeler – State Representative
Mike McFadden – Finance industry executive
Montana
Incumbent: Sen. Max Baucus (D) – originally elected 1978; not seeking re-election
Democrat: Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14)
Republicans: Champ Edmunds – State Representative
Corey Stapleton – Former state Senate Minority Leader
Notes: All are awaiting former Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s (D) decision whether to run for the seat. The ex-governor just accepted a new position a chairman of a mining company and intimated that he is in no hurry to make a political decision. If he chooses not to run, expect many Democrats to come forward. At-large Rep. Steve Daines (R) may also run if Schweitzer does not. Should he enter the campaign, the ex-governor will be considered the heavy favorite to win.
Nebraska
Incumbent: Sen. Mike Johanns (R) – originally elected 2008; not seeking re-election
Republican: Shane Osborn – Former state Treasurer

New Hampshire
Incumbent: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – originally elected 2008
Notes: No one has yet to announce their candidacy here, but former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) is testing the political waters. If he doesn’t run, former Rep. Frank Guinta (R-NH-1) could become a candidate. Guinta is also considering running for his former House seat.
New Jersey (Special Election)
Incumbent: Sen. Jeff Chiesa (R) – appointed 2013; not seeking election
Democrat: Cory Booker – Newark Mayor
Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ-12)
Sheila Oliver – State Assembly Speaker
Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ-6)
Republicans: Alieta Eck – Physician
Steve Lonegan – Former mayor of Bogota
New Mexico
Incumbent: Sen. Tom Udall (D) – originally elected 2008
Notes: No one has officially entered this race, but Albuquerque Mayor R.J. Berry, Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, State Economic Development Secretary, former congressional candidate Jon Barela, and ex-state Republican chairman Allen Weh all are possible contenders.
North Carolina
Incumbent: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) – originally elected 2008
Republicans: Greg Brannon – Physician
Thom Tillis – Speaker of the NC House of Representatives
Oklahoma
Incumbent: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) – originally elected 1994
Democrat: Mark Silverstein – Insurance Agency Owner
South Carolina
Incumbent: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) – originally elected 2002
Republican: Richard Cash – Pastor; former congressional candidate
Democrat: Jay Stamper – Businessman
South Dakota
Incumbent: Sen. Tim Johnson (D) – originally elected 1996; not seekingre-election
Republican: Mike Rounds – former governor
Democrat: Rick Weiland – Former staff member to Sen. Tom Daschle (D)
West Virginia
Incumbent: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) – originally elected 1984; not seeking re-election
Democrat: Sheirl Fletcher – Former state delegate
Republican: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2)
Pat McGeehan – Former state Delegate
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