Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Louisiana Polling

In House, Senate on August 20, 2013 at 10:58 am

louisiana

Several polls were just conducted about upcoming Louisiana campaigns, specifically the Senate challenge to incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) and the new House special election for resigning Rep. Rodney Alexander’s (R-LA-5) seat.

Senate

Two pollsters went into the field to test Sen. Landrieu and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA-6). OnMessage, conducting an internal poll for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (Aug. 12-15; 800 registered Louisiana voters), found the senator to be leading the congressman by just a 45-41 percent count.

Party loyalty is strong for both candidates. Sen. Landrieu captures 77 percent of the Democratic vote, while Rep. Cassidy seizes 72 percent of the Republicans. In what could be a looming problem for Landrieu, Independents already break 41-37 percent in favor of Cassidy.

The one issue tested, reaction to the Obamacare mandatory health insurance program, was viewed very negatively. Of those sampled, 33 percent favor the program while a whopping 62 percent expressed opposition to the concept; and 53 percent of the 62 percent described their negative impressions as “strong.”

Meanwhile Harper Polling, during the same time frame (Aug. 14-15; 596 registered Louisiana voters) reports even better numbers for Republican Cassidy. According to HP, the Baton Rouge congressman enjoys a 47-45 percent advantage over the senator.

Two lesser known Republican candidates also poll well. Sen. Landrieu surprisingly only ties state Sen. Elbert Guillory (R), with each individual registering 44 percent preference of those polled. Retired Air Force officer Rob Maness (R) does not fare as well. In this pairing, Sen. Landrieu posts a 47-41 percent edge.

It is important to remember that Louisiana places all of its candidates on the same ballot and holds the primary vote concurrent with the general election. If no candidate receives an absolute majority, a run-off is held in early December. With no early poll projecting Sen. Landrieu in a majority vote position, the early odds of forcing a secondary election appear high.

LA-5

A local Louisiana pollster, JMC Analytics (Aug. 16; 755 likely LA-5 voters via automated interview), tested the 5th District constituency for the upcoming Oct. 19 special election. If no candidate receives a majority, the run-off between the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will occur on Nov. 16. The field of candidates will be officially finalized tomorrow.

According to JMC, the candidates finish in the following order:

State Sen. Neil Riser (R) ………………. 29%
St. Rep. Robert Johnson (D) …………. 11%
Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo (D) ……. 11%
St. Rep. Jay Morris (R) ………………… 10%
St. Rep. Marcus Hunter (D) …………… 5%
Attorney Jeff Guerriero (R) ……………. 5%

A run-off in this special election cycle is a virtual certainty. The combined R-D split is 44-27 percent, respectively, among the tested candidates.

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