Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

New Yorkers Vote Today

In Mayor, Polling on September 10, 2013 at 10:50 am

Mayor

The long-awaited New York City mayor’s race features its primary election today, and three new polls all arrive at similar findings. According to Marist College/New York Times (Sept. 3-6; 936 registered NYC Democrats), Public Policy Polling (Sept. 7-8; 683 likely NYC Democrat voters), and Quinnipiac University (Sept. 6-8; 782 likely NYC Democrat voters), NYC Public Advocate Bill de Blasio will place first in tonight’s vote, but will he obtain enough votes to avoid an Oct. 1 run-off election?

Marist scores the candidates 36-20-20 percent in de Blasio’s favor, followed by former NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson and City Council President Christine Quinn. PPP shows a similar 39-19-13 percent spread, with the candidates in the same order. Finally, the Q-Poll projects a 39-25-18 percent finish for the trio.

To avoid a post-primary run-off a candidate must receive at least 40 percent of the vote, so it is obvious that de Blasio is teetering right around the minimum figure. Should he fall into a run-off, he is likely to face Thompson, who has more upward momentum than Council President Quinn. Once the leader of the race, Quinn’s support level has been steadily digressing for the past several weeks. Disgraced former US Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY-9) has dropped to also-ran status, registering only single-digits in all polling.

At least right now, de Blasio appears to be a heavy favorite if he is forced to a secondary election. Against Thompson, Marist finds the public advocate leading with a 50-38 percent advantage. If Quinn sneaks into the run-off, de Blasio would destroy her 56-34 percent.

PPP gives de Blasio a larger 53-33 percent advantage over Thompson and a massive 67-21 percent spread against Quinn.

Quinnipiac did not test a potential run-off scenario.

Whether it happens tonight or on Oct. 1, current polling points to de Blasio as the eventual Democrat nominee.

Though the pollsters have paid little attention to the Republican side, internal research sources suggest that former New York Metropolitan Authority chairman Joe Lhota is favored to defeat outright supermarket magnate John Catsamitidis and Doe Fund founder George McDonald. Though the Democrats have not held this office in 20 years, their eventual party nominee will be favored in the general election mostly because of its overwhelming voter registration advantage. Three-term Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) is ineligible to seek re-election.

Comptroller

The three pollsters also surveyed the open Comptroller campaign between scandal-ridden former Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer. This race looks to be very close as two of the firms, Marist and PPP, forecast a Spitzer advantage, while the Q-Poll shows Stringer with a seven-point edge.

Marist: Spitzer, 47% Stringer, 45%
PPP: Spitzer, 45% Stringer, 41%
Q-Poll: Stringer, 50% Spitzer, 43%

Even today, on Election Day, this race appears too close to call.

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