Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Archive for January 22nd, 2014|Daily archive page

An Evolving Landscape in the Oklahoma Senate Race

In Senate on January 22, 2014 at 11:48 am

UPDATE – CORRECTION: This report initially stated that the House Conservatives Fund made negative statements about Rep. Lankford, which was incorrect; it was the Senate Conservatives Fund. The information below has been updated and corrected.

The race to replace Sen. Tom Coburn (R), who is resigning his seat two years before his term ends, thus necessitating a 2014 special election, is a fast-starting campaign.

Two days ago, sophomore Rep. James Lankford (R-OK-5) announced his statewide candidacy. Yesterday, the Senate Conservatives Fund made negative statements about the congressman regarding his votes on the budget, the debt ceiling, and pertaining to funding the Affordable Care Act.

The SCF’s statements might be a signal that freshman Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK-1), a Tea Party favorite, will enter the campaign. The Tulsa congressman confirms he is  Continue reading >

Jolly’s Advantage in Florida

In House on January 22, 2014 at 10:46 am

It’s been the stated conventional wisdom that former Florida Chief Financial Officer and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink would sail to a comfortable win in the March 11 special general election to replace the late Rep. Bill Young (R-FL-13). Since the Jan. 14 primary, however, two polls have been released projecting that Republican David Jolly holds a discernible lead.

The first survey, from St. Pete Polls as we reported last week, staked Jolly to a 47-43 percent advantage, but we illustrated that the respondent universe contained an over-sampling of Republicans. In the latest poll, from McLaughlin & Associates (Jan. 16-19; 400 registered FL-13 voters) for the Jolly campaign, the same flaw exists. Largely as a result, the McLaughlin data yields a 43-38% Jolly lead.

The district voter registration is: 37 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 24 percent Independent. The McLaughlin sample pull was comprised of 42 percent Republican voters, 35 percent Democrats, and 16 percent Independents. Therefore, increasing the Republican share by five full  Continue reading >

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