Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Archive for March, 2014|Monthly archive page

Former Office Holders Reverse Retirement to Run Again

In Governor, House on March 18, 2014 at 10:28 am

Candidate filing closed in three more states: Idaho, Iowa, and Nevada and, along with announcements in two other states, we find some former office holders reversing the retirement trend and re-entering the political arena.

Starting with an incumbent re-election statement, veteran Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN-7), who was first elected in 1990 and has been coy about his 2014 political plans, officially declared that he will seek a 13th term later this year. The congressman will likely receive general election opposition from Republican state Sen. Torrey Westrom.

In Idaho’s 2nd District, a surprise candidate entry was recorded as former Rep. Richard Stallings (D), who served four terms beginning in 1985, announced that he will again attempt to re-claim his former position. In 1992, Rep. Stallings left the House for a Senate run but fell to then-Boise  Continue reading >

Primary Time Continues in Illinois Tomorrow

In Governor, House, Senate on March 17, 2014 at 10:46 am

Voters in the nation’s second earliest primary state, Illinois, go to the polls tomorrow to choose their party nominees for the fall elections. Though Texas already held its primaries on March 4, its nomination process is not yet complete because the run-off contests are scheduled for May 27. Since Illinois has no secondary election procedure, all nominations will be finalized tomorrow.

Governor

The most intense race on the ballot is the governor’s campaign, as four Republicans vie for the opportunity to face vulnerable Gov. Pat Quinn, who continues to poll as the nation’s weakest Democratic incumbent.

Businessman Bruce Rauner, spending copious amounts of his own money on television advertising, is leading his three GOP opponents in all polls and poised to claim victory tomorrow night. Three surveys  Continue reading >

Lines Drawn in Key Battleground State for Senate Majority

In Senate on March 14, 2014 at 10:28 am

This week, events in Alaska’s nationally important Senate race have apparently begun to crystallize. Just as Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) begins an offensive campaign surge, the Republican coalition’s disparate segments are moving to coalesce behind one  Continue reading >

It’s Official for Candidates in PA, OR

In Governor, House, Senate on March 13, 2014 at 10:49 am

Two more states now have official 2014 candidates as office seekers in Pennsylvania and Oregon made their political intentions official this week.

Pennsylvania

Gov. Tom Corbett (R) is facing one Republican primary challenger, while six Democrats will battle for their party’s nomination to be decided May 20. The eventual Democrat standard bearer will have a strong chance of unseating Corbett, who continues to post some of the worst job approval ratings in the country.

With businessman Tom Wolf out to an early lead after unleashing a major positive and clever media buy, Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13), state Treasurer Rob McCord and three others who comprise the Democratic field are forced to play catch-up.

With no US Senate contest in the Keystone  Continue reading >

Sink Sunk in FL-13

In House on March 12, 2014 at 11:56 am

In a stunning final special election result from Florida last night, Republican David Jolly, who opponents painted as a Washington lobbyist representing an organization that favors Social Security privatization, upset favored Democratic candidate Alex Sink in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. The campaign’s conclusion carries national implications.

The Affordable Care Act was front and center throughout the contest, with Jolly touting his opposition to the program and Sink relying on a catch phrase of “keeping what’s right [with the healthcare program] and fixing what’s wrong”. Her argument, before a Sunshine State congressional district with the sixth largest segmentation of people (in Florida) over 65 years of age (22.8 percent), apparently fell upon largely disbelieving ears.

Jolly won the race 48.5 – 46.6 percent, with 4.8 percent going to Libertarian Party nominee Lucas Overby. The Republican victory margin was 3,456 votes from a huge total of 183,627 ballots cast.
 Continue reading >

Gary Peters’ Boonstra Blunder in the Michigan Senate Race

In Senate on March 7, 2014 at 11:04 am

Things haven’t gone quite to plan for Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14) in his bid to succeed retiring Sen. Carl Levin (D).

When the senator announced he wouldn’t be seeking re-election early last year, Rep. Peters immediately jumped into the race and very quickly sewed up consensus party  Continue reading >

Wendy Davis’s Potential Problem

In Governor on March 6, 2014 at 10:44 am

While the major news media is covering Sen. John Cornyn’s (R) strong win in Tuesday night’s Texas primary, a different story lies beneath the surface in the Lone Star state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.

State Sen. Wendy Davis (D-Ft. Worth) easily won her party’s nomination for governor attracting 78.4 percent of the vote, but she did lose 25 counties to an opponent, Reynaldo “Ray” Madrigal, who was virtually a candidate in absentia. Though losing 25 of 237 counties is an insignificant number in and of itself, the location of her under-performing entities is what could pose her an additional general election problem.

It is clear that Sen. Davis begins this race as an underdog to Attorney General Greg Abbott, who captured 91.5 percent of the Republican primary vote. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1990. It hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter carried the state in 1976. Lloyd Bentsen is the last Democratic US senator voted into  Continue reading >

Texas Tallies: Cornyn Wins Easily, Hall in Run-off

In Election Analysis on March 5, 2014 at 11:08 am

Senate

The first-in-the-nation primary vote was held yesterday, and few surprises were noted. Sen. John Cornyn (R), facing seven Republican opponents including Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX-36), was successfully renominated capturing 58.7 percent of the vote with just over 90 percent of the vote counted at this writing. Rep. Stockman scored 18.8 percent, and Tea Party favorite Dwyane Stovall posted 10.6 percent.

With Stockman entering late and virtually disappearing on the campaign trail and Stovall raising very little money, what could have become a serious intra-party challenge to the two-term senator fizzled. Now, Cornyn looks forward to romping home in the general election.

For the Democrats, North Texas dentist David Alameel, a former congressional candidate, fell just short of winning the  Continue reading >

Beauprez Will Run

In Governor on March 4, 2014 at 11:10 am

Former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO-7) filed papers yesterday to again run for governor in Colorado. He left the House to run unsuccessfully for this position in what evolved into the Democratic landslide year of 2006, and now he attempts a comeback. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) appears vulnerable against what, heretofore, seemed a weak Republican field. A Beauprez entry will change the flow of the campaign.

In 2002, Beauprez claimed a 121-vote victory in the first ever congressional race in what was then Colorado’s new 7th District, located in the Denver suburbs. The seat was drawn to be marginal and the results certainly proved the design. In his first and only re-election, Beauprez notched a 55 percent win.

After the Beauprez announcement, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him quickly ascend to the top of the Republican primary polls. Considering this development, the Colorado gubernatorial campaign becomes more serious.

%d bloggers like this: