Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Rep. Rangle Seeks 23rd Term; Tiahrt a Long Shot

In House, Polling on June 23, 2014 at 1:30 pm

Veteran Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY-13) seeks a 23rd term in the House this year, and tomorrow’s New York Democratic primary will determine his fate. Rangel again faces state Sen. Adriano Espaillat (D), the man he beat by just over 1,000 votes in 2012. Both men’s political position appear to have improved in this election. Rangel is past an ethics scandal and Espaillat has earned serious endorsements from key New York City Democratic constituencies.

Siena College released a pre-primary poll (June 14-18; 707 likely Democratic primary voters) posting the congressman to a 47-34 percent lead over Sen. Espaillat at the beginning of the primary campaign’s final week. The result for Rangel is a bit better than one might have expected considering the closeness of the 2012 election.

On a cautionary note, Siena College has badly missed New York City races in the past, suggesting their sample draws may not be particularly accurate. Therefore, these numbers could be inflated. The true answer will become known tomorrow night.

KS-4 – Pompeo vs. Tiahrt

Late last month, former Rep. Todd Tiahrt announced his Aug. 5 Republican primary challenge to his successor in the office, Rep. Mike Pompeo. Now, the first poll involving this pairing has been released.

According to Survey USA (June 16-18; 534 likely KS-4 Republican primary voters), ex-Rep. Tiahrt, who lost a close statewide Kansas US Senate primary in 2010, has much ground to traverse in a short period of time if he is to regain the seat he vacated four years ago. The polling results give Rep. Pompeo a 51-34 percent advantage over Tiahrt, a tally that should not be considered particularly surprising.

Pompeo has voted conservatively, and his representation is reflective of the Wichita-anchored constituency. Additionally, he enjoys a huge financial advantage, having more than $2.1 million in his campaign account. Therefore, Tiahrt’s challenge is an uphill task to say the least.

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