Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

A Quick Update on Key Senate Races

In Election Analysis, Polling, Senate on October 22, 2014 at 11:16 am

Here’s a look at the latest from the final drive for the Senate in key states:

Kentucky


Kentuckians for Strong Leadership: “Look”

Survey USA released a new poll (Oct. 15-19; 655 likely Kentucky voters) again showing a virtual dead heat between Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D). This data finds the senator only holding a one-point lead, 44-43 percent, as the campaign again tightens. Also, the in-state Super PAC supporting McConnell, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, released a new attack ad, calling her “Obama’s Senator” (above).

Arkansas

New polling is beginning to show that Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) is on the verge of putting away this election. A new Hendrix College Talk Business survey (Oct. 15-16; 2,075 likely Arkansas voters) posts Cotton to his largest lead of the campaign, 49-41 percent, over Sen. Mark Pryor (D). This means that Cotton has led on five of the last six published surveys; the only one not showing the Republican with the edge is the Opinion Research Associates poll conducted for the Arkansas Democratic Party (Oct. 1-5; Pryor leading 45-42 percent). Cotton’s margin ranges from three to the eight points that Hendrix College detected.

North Carolina

The issue of Sen. Kay Hagan’s husband’s company receiving almost $400,000 from the Obama stimulus legislation is becoming the front and center issue in the closing days. Attached is another National Republican Senatorial ad (below) attacking her over a conflict of interest, while the Hagan campaign strikes back with an ethics ad of their own.


NRSC: Whats Wrong


Hagan: “The Truth”

Colorado

Two new polls were released into the public domain, both showing Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO-4) with a slight lead over Sen. Mark Udall (D). The first, from Monmouth University in New Jersey (Oct. 17-20; 431 likely Colorado voters) gives Gardner a slight 47-46 percent edge. The second, from Public Policy Polling (Oct. 16-19; 778 likely Colorado voters) posts him to a slightly better 46-43 percent advantage.

New Hampshire

YouGov, polling for the University of Massachusetts (Oct. 10-15; 400 registered New Hampshire voters; 322 likely New Hampshire voters) finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) clinging to a 48-45 percent lead among likely voters including leaners. Without leaners, Shaheen’s total over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) climbs to 46-42 percent. Among registered voters, the senator’s totals soar: 49-41 percent with leaners; 47-39 percent without. Clearly, this race is a turnout battle, with the higher participation rates helping the Democrats.

South Dakota

The NRSC unleashed a new ad that hits Democrat Rick Weiland on various issues, while mocking his campaign strategy of visiting every South Dakota city and town (elow)


NRSC: “All Over”

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: