Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Archive for November 24th, 2014|Daily archive page

Louisiana Polls Show Definitive Trends

In House, Polling, Senate on November 24, 2014 at 2:34 pm

JMC Analytics, a Louisiana polling staple, conducted two surveys for the upcoming run-off election: one for the US Senate contest and other in the open Baton Rouge congressional district. Both campaigns will be decided on Dec. 6. The third federal run-off election, that in the state’s 5th Congressional District, was not tested.

Senate

Like all other pollsters, JMC finds Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA-6), the challenger, holding a big lead over incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D). The automated poll of 754 Louisiana registered voters who participated in the Nov. 4 election was conducted on Nov. 20. The ballot test yields Cassidy a 53-38 percent lead, the fifth post-election poll to find the Baton Rouge Congressman holding a double-digit advantage.

But the underlying result is actually a bit worse for Landrieu. Posing a follow-up question to those saying they were undecided, in order to determine the direction they are leaning, the group breaks 55-40 percent in Cassidy’s favor.

The third question queried the respondents’ impression of Landrieu’s leadership on the Keystone Pipeline issue, her sponsored legislation that failed by one vote in the Senate lame duck session, and drew the support of only 13 other members of her party. Twenty-nine percent stated that she used her clout effectively, while 39 percent said she did not. The remainder were undecided or had no opinion.
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