Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Archive for January 12th, 2015|Daily archive page

Reverberations From Boxer’s Retirement Continue

In House on January 12, 2015 at 11:07 am

Sen. Barbara Boxer’s (D) retirement announcement, as we mentioned in previous columns, has set off a political firestorm in the Golden State. An open Senate seat for the first time in what will be 24 years has given aspiring statewide officeholders, particularly among Democrats, their first glimpse of attaining a major federal office. More than 30 people have been mentioned as potential candidates, but events of the last few days have begun to clarify the picture.

The state’s relatively new jungle primary law (2016 will mark the third election since its institution) makes this a much more interesting race. Before, particularly in a place that has trended so heavily toward one party in the last two decades, winning the June Democratic primary would have been tantamount to a general election victory. No more.

Now, with all candidates on the same primary ballot and the top two advancing to the general election irrespective of party affiliation with no ability to win outright on the first vote means a number of general election configurations could result. Typically, a Democrat and a Republican advance. But, if the GOP doesn’t have a capable candidate – a possibility in this overwhelmingly expensive state in what will be a long shot for them at best – two Democrats could qualify. On the other hand, if we see a large number of strong Democrats entering the race, which is a distinct possibility, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that two Republicans could actually advance if the Democratic vote is Continue reading >

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