Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Archive for the ‘International Elections’ Category

Wild Italian Election Results

In International Elections on February 26, 2013 at 11:00 am

We don’t often stray into the international world of campaigns and elections, but because the result of the important Italian election was even more unusual than predicted, we are.

Choosing the membership of the country’s new Parliament will have a great effect upon whether the Italian economy — Europe’s third-largest economic entity — stabilizes, and therefore all of the Eurozone. Certainly this region’s economic status has great effect upon the United States.

The underlying electoral conclusion is uncertain. With former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Freedom Party coalition apparently headed toward controlling a Senate plurality and the center-left coalition of Pier Luigi Bersani’s Democratic Party and current Prime Minister Mario Monti’s small Civic Choice Party claiming the majority in the Chamber of Deputies, the country will likely succumb to political stalemate. Both the CoD and Senate wield equal power.

Perhaps the biggest political story is the performance of comedian-turned-politician Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement Party. If the final vote tallies meet expectations, Grillo’s party will be the largest single entity in both houses and of similar size to both coalitions. Because Grillo was convicted of vehicular manslaughter in 1980, he was ineligible to run for Parliament, but he is the face of this insurgent political entity and will wield significant power behind the scenes.

Turnout was below the last election’s (2008) participation rate of 80 percent of the eligible voters. More than 50 million Italians were eligible to vote this year, and it appears over 75 percent participated. The election being held in February instead of the normal spring time, and heavy snow and rain falling throughout the country were factors in pushing the turnout downward.

Much is yet to happen as all sides maneuver for political position. The final resolution is anything but clear.

Netanyahu’s Hold Tenuous; New Franken Polling

In International Elections, Polling, Senate on January 23, 2013 at 1:20 pm

Looking at an important election beyond our borders, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud-Beytenu Party seemed to be holding steady in first place with 31 seats, but fewer than the 32-35 range that was projected. In the 2009 election, Likud scored 27 seats, but after officially joining forces with Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman the combined total expanded to 42 of the 120 seats in Israel’s Knesset. Netanyahu was then able to add other center-right parties to form the current government.

This time the eventual coalition will look much different. Some even believe disgruntled Likud supporters may look for a leadership alternative to Netanyahu. The key to forming the next coalition will be surprise second-place finisher Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, which earned 19 seats. The Labor Party, predicted to finish second, placed third, winning 17 seats. Netanyahu has already asked Lapid to join his government, and preliminary indications are that he will. With the center-left parties scoring either 58 or 59 seats, however, the Prime Minister has a very thin margin from which to form a government. As the leader whose party finished first in the balloting, Netanyahu has 42 days to form a governing coalition.

Voter turnout was high, estimated at 66.6 percent of the eligible electorate, meaning almost 3.77 million participants. This Continue reading >

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