New Michigan Numbers Raise Questions

A new EPIC-MRA poll (Sept. 7-10; 600 registered Michigan voters) places Gov. Rick Snyder (R) and potential Republican senatorial nominee Terri Lynn Land in an improved political position just as next year’s active campaign cycle is beginning. But, the poll’s methodology may contain a flaw. The sampling universe is arguably skewed slightly toward the GOP.

The survey’s ballot test posts Gov. Snyder to a 44-36 percent lead over former Rep. Mark Schauer (D-MI-7), a net seven-point swing in the incumbent’s favor since the last EPIC-MRA poll was conducted in May.

For the Senate race, Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14), the presumed Democratic nominee, is staked to only a one-point 38-37 percent edge over Land. In EPIC’s May poll, the firm tested Peters against Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI-8) who, at that time, was considering entering the race. The result found the Democratic congressman leading his Republican colleague 37-30 percent. The current EPIC findings are very similar to a late July Denno Research poll that plotted the two candidates – Peters and Land – in a 39 percent deadlock.

The study, however, may not accurately reflect the proper composition of the Michigan electorate. Generally a state that leans Democrat, the sampling universe constructed for this particular survey is comprised of 39 percent self-identified Democrats, 36 percent who affiliate with the Republicans, and 25 percent either saying they are independent or named a minor party with which they associate. Michigan voters do not register as political party members, so it is difficult to ascertain an accurate total of each party’s loyalists. But, considering the electorate has supported President Obama twice with percentage splits of 54-45 percent (2012) and 57-41 percent (2008), it is reasonable to argue that EPIC’s Democratic share is low.

On the other hand, in the 2010 mid-term election, Snyder carried the state 58-40 percent under a much lower voter participation factor (in 2008, five million people cast ballots; in 2010, the total turnout was only 3.2 million). Therefore, considering that we are soon headed into another mid-term election, the partisan spread of just over three points could, in fact, be close to accurate for such a projected turnout model.

The Candidates

Though the Democratic leadership has

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Rogers, Peters Considering Michigan Senate Run; Miller Out

Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI-8) | Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14)

Sen. Carl Levin’s (D-MI) retirement announcement has already set the Wolverine State’s political wheels in motion, and the succession picture is much clearer today than at the end of last week.

Maybe In – House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence chairman Mike Rogers (R-MI-8) and three-term Democratic Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14) top the lists of both parties who say they are “seriously considering” entering the Senate race. Should these two meet in a general election, we can expect a tough, hard-fought contest between a pair of strong, veteran campaigners who have both won tough races.

Potential candidates who won’t yet rule out running are Democratic National Committeewoman Debbie Dingell, the wife of Rep. John Dingell (MI-12) who is the Dean of Congress, and second-term Republican Rep. Justin Amash (MI-3). Terri Lynn Land (R), a former secretary of state, also is a possible entrant.

Definitely Out – Republican Congresswoman Candice Miller (R-MI-10), a former two-term Secretary of State who many believe would be the party’s strongest contender, is among a surprisingly large number of potential candidates who have ruled themselves out of joining the open seat contest. In a statement to the Detroit