Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Boston Globe’

Two Sleeper Races to Watch

In Governor, House, Polling on September 29, 2014 at 11:42 am

In a normal course of an election cycle, particularly when entering the last month of campaign activity, discussion often turns to sleeper races. Some recent polling data gives us a clue in a couple of cases.

North Dakota – House

In a contest that is on virtually no one’s political board, a new Mellman Group poll for the George Sinner campaign actually shows the Democratic challenger taking a two-point, 40-38 percent, lead over freshman incumbent Rep. Kevin Cramer (R).

The survey (Sept. 20-22; 400 likely North Dakota voters) reveals a shocking turn of events that puts Sinner ahead of newcomer incumbent Cramer. The polling error factor, however, is “4.9 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence”, which is high. This means that the two candidates are running close together, from 2.5 points up to 2.5 points down. Hence, the tandem is about even, which will sound warning bells among Republican national party decision makers. Their solution will be to spend money in order to keep a seat that did not originally appear vulnerable.

It is clear that the Mellman Group, a well-known and respected Democratic Continue reading >

Big Developments in the Massachusetts Senate Special Election

In Governor, Polling, Senate on January 29, 2013 at 4:03 pm
Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown

News is occurring rapidly in the replacement special election for Secretary of State-designee John Kerry’s Massachusetts Senate seat.

First, despite Kerry not yet being confirmed, Gov. Deval Patrick and Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin have announced the special election schedule. The party primaries will be held April 30, with the special general vote occurring on June 25. A plurality of the vote wins the respective Democratic and Republican nominations.

Secondly, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) is not denying a Boston Globe report that he will enter the special election soon to challenge Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) in the Democratic primary. The road will be a Continue reading >

Is Tierney Done in Mass.?

In Election Analysis, House, Polling on October 16, 2012 at 2:43 pm

While a highly publicized scandal appears to be undoing Florida Republican David Rivera’s re-election campaign, a Massachusetts Democrat is apparently feeling similar heat. Early this year, Rep. John Tierney’s (D-MA-6) wife, Patrice, was sentenced to 30 days in prison and another five months of house arrest for her role in falsifying her brother’s tax returns to hide profits from an illegal gambling operation. Though Rep. Tierney himself was not accused of any wrongdoing, he may be coming to the end of his congressional career, nonetheless.

Yesterday, following the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) decision to cancel a $650,000 media buy on his behalf, Tierney’s campaign cancelled $370,000 of television advertising in the Boston market they had previously reserved. This means the congressman’s campaign will have no television airing from Oct. 23rd to the election, unless they purchase new time segments. But, if they were planning such a media re-allocation move as the campaign manager suggests, then why cancel the original purchase carrying lower rates?

The Tierney action follows Republican Richard Tisei releasing a new McLaughlin & Associates poll showing him with a 50-33 percent lead. The Boston Globe, in late September, found Tisei to be holding a 37-31 percent advantage. These moves, plus Tierney’s current ad talking about his wife’s legal woes (and saying he had nothing to do with her admitted illegal actions) suggests that the congressman is effectively conceding the race. Converting a heavily Democratic Massachusetts congressional district such as MA-6 will be a boon to Republican hopes of expanding the size of their current House majority.

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