An Evolving Landscape in the Oklahoma Senate Race

UPDATE – CORRECTION: This report initially stated that the House Conservatives Fund made negative statements about Rep. Lankford, which was incorrect; it was the Senate Conservatives Fund. The information below has been updated and corrected.

The race to replace Sen. Tom Coburn (R), who is resigning his seat two years before his term ends, thus necessitating a 2014 special election, is a fast-starting campaign.

Two days ago, sophomore Rep. James Lankford (R-OK-5) announced his statewide candidacy. Yesterday, the Senate Conservatives Fund made negative statements about the congressman regarding his votes on the budget, the debt ceiling, and pertaining to funding the Affordable Care Act.

The SCF’s statements might be a signal that freshman Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK-1), a Tea Party favorite, will enter the campaign. The Tulsa congressman confirms he is

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Oklahoma Ins and Outs

Sen. Tom Coburn’s (R) resignation statement last week saying he will leave Washington at the end of 2014 has predictably begun a political chess game. Under Oklahoma election law, a vacant Senate seat is filled by special election and not through gubernatorial appointment. Furthermore, the law allows a sitting office holder to pledge to resign at a future date and hold a replacement special election even though the affected member remains in office. In this situation, Coburn’s timing allows the state to fill the upcoming vacancy in the 2014 regular election.

Yesterday, Rep. James Lankford (R-OK-5) released a two-minute video campaign announcement entering the special Senate election in hopes of filling the remaining two years of Coburn’s unexpired term. While the Oklahoma City congressman firmly jumped into the race, Gov. Mary Fallin (R), Attorney General Scott Pruitt (R), and Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK-4) all stated in equally unequivocal fashion that they will keep their current positions.

Oklahoma, Arizona Results

Rep. David Schweikert

As the Republican National Convention belatedly got underway in Tampa Tuesday, voters in four states went to the polls but only two of those places, Oklahoma and Arizona, hosted races of significance.

A run-off election was held in Oklahoma’s 2nd District for both parties in order to continue the replacement process for retiring Rep. Dan Boren (D-OK-2). Former Democratic district attorney Rob Wallace knocked off local Farm Bureau executive Wayne Herriman by a 57-43 percent count. Wallace will face businessman Markwayne Mullin who won the Republican nomination by the same margin. Democratic turnout, however, was much higher than that for the GOP, about 44,000 voters to just over 21,000. The Eastern Oklahoma 2nd District is viewed as a strong Republican conversion opportunity. Though the 2nd is the most Democratic seat in the state, Oklahoma voters are expected to support Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in such landslide proportions that additional momentum will be generated for Mullin in the congressional contest.

But the big prize in last night’s primary contests was Arizona. As expected, Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ-6) easily captured the Republican Senatorial nomination, defeating businessman Wil Cardon by capturing more than two-thirds of the Republican vote.

In the Scottsdale-anchored new 6th Congressional District, in a paired major battle of two incumbent freshmen Republicans, Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ-5) defeated his GOP colleague, Rep. Ben Quayle (R-AZ-3), by a 53-47 percent margin. This has been a hotly contested campaign since the beginning, with each candidate attempting to sell himself as the more conservative stalwart. Schweikert will easily win the general election and should be able to hold this seat for the remainder of the decade, barring any type of further significant primary challenge.

In the expansive eastern 1st CD, also producing no surprises, former representative Ann Kirkpatrick took the Democratic nomination and will face former state senator Jonathan Paton who was a landslide winner on the Republican side. The 1st is a highly marginal district, so expect a fierce battle in the general election.

In the new southeastern 2nd District, formerly numbered 8, newly elected Rep. Ron Barber (D), fresh from his recent special election victory, will attempt to win a full term against former Gulf War veteran Martha McSally (R).

The western 4th District was drawn as Arizona’s safest Republican seat, which explains why freshman Rep. Paul Gosar moved here from the marginal 1st District despite only representing one-third of the new constituency. The ploy worked as Gosar defeated state Sen. Ron Gould and GOP businessman Rick Murphy, while overcoming more than $800,000 in conservative independent expenditure targeted against him. The congressman should now have an easy ride in the general election, even though he only notched 51 percent of the vote against his two Republican opponents.

Back in suburban Phoenix, former Rep. Matt Salmon looks like he has won a ticket back to Congress with a solid victory over former Arizona state House Speaker Kirk Adams. The 5th District is another safe Republican seat, so Salmon now appears to be a lock for victory in November.

In the new marginal 9th District, also in the Phoenix suburbs, Democratic former state senator Kyrsten Sinema won her party’s nomination, defeating state Senate Minority Leader David Schapira and former state party chairman and Clinton Administration official Andrei Cherny. On the Republican side, Paradise Valley Mayor and former congressional candidate Vernon Parker won a very close Republican primary contest, as he placed first against six other candidates.

Republicans had hoped Sinema would become the Democratic nominee because they believe she can be painted as too liberal for the CD-9 constituency. Expect a hot race here in the fall. Democrats should enjoy a slight advantage, and an edge that will likely expand throughout the rest of the decade due to demographic changes but, for now, the 2012 congressional battle must be considered a toss-up.

Sullivan Loses in Okla.; Other Incumbents Fare Well

The big story of yesterday’s Oklahoma primary voting is the defeat of six-term Rep. John Sullivan (R-OK-1), who fell to military reserve pilot Jim Bridenstine by a substantial 54-46 percent margin. Sullivan becomes the fourth non-paired incumbent to fail in a renomination bid during this election cycle. Reps. Jean Schmidt (R-OH-2), Tim Holden (D-PA-17), and Silvestre Reyes (D-TX-16) are the other three.

In the open 2nd District of Oklahoma, both parties will feature Aug. 28 run-off elections. The Republicans will battle between businessman Markwayne Mullin (42 percent) and state Rep. George Faught (23 percent). Democrats will likely have a close contest between former district attorney Rob Wallace (46 percent) and Tulsa County Farm Bureau President Wayne Herriman (42 percent). Rep. Dan Boren (D) is retiring. This may be the Republican’s best conversion opportunity in the country.

Turning to South Carolina, the general election candidates are now set in the Palmetto State’s new 7th District. Horry County Council chairman Tom Rice was a strong 56-44 percent winner over former lieutenant governor Andre Bauer in the Republican primary. Rice is a prohibitive favorite now in the general election. In the run-off campaign that lasted just four official days after the Horry County court ruled that the Democrats must hold a secondary vote, former Georgia state Rep. Gloria Tinubu easily beat back attorney Preston Brittain, 73-27 percent. The run-off was challenged because votes for a withdrawn candidate were not originally included in the final tally.

In Utah, Sen. Orrin Hatch, as expected, was an easy 67-33 percent winner in his Republican primary battle with former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist. Hatch will now cruise to re-election to a seventh term in November.

Another incumbent turned back a serious primary challenge with ease. Three-term Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO-5) repelled self-funding opponent Robert Blaha by a strong 62-38 percent margin despite the challenger spending more than $720,000 of his own money. Lamborn, who has had trouble solidifying what should be a safe Colorado Springs district, appears to be building the kind of strength one would expect to see from a now veteran incumbent.

Finally, in New York, a series of primaries produced no surprises. Embattled Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY-13), challenged by four Democrats, again survived the onslaught but with only 45 percent of the vote. State Sen. Adriano Espaillat was his closest challenger with 40 percent; former Clinton Administration official and 2010 congressional candidate Clyde Williams only recorded 10 percent of the vote.

Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) was a 58-31 percent winner over New York City Councilman Erik Dilan. Velazquez will now represent the new 7th District, which contains 71.2 percent of her current constituency. Neighboring Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-NY-9) was an easy winner in her primary with a huge 88 percent of the vote.

Elsewhere in the state, two individuals won open-seat New York City races that effectively punches their ticket to Congress. State Assemblywoman Grace Meng was an easy Democratic primary winner and will succeed retiring Rep. Gary Ackerman in the new 6th District. In Brooklyn, Democratic state Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries will replace retiring Rep. Ed Towns in the new 8th District.

New York City attorney Sean Mahoney won the right to challenge freshman Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) in the new 18th District. Mahoney won despite the district being anchored in Westchester County. As expected, Rep. Bill Owens (D) will defend his marginal district against 2010 nominee Matt Doheny (R). And, former Erie County Executive Chris Collins (R) will face Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) in a new district that heavily favors the Republicans.

Finally, in the US Senate race, conservative Wendy Long easily defeated New York City Rep. Bob Turner (R-NY-9), who had no legitimate chance of remaining in the House post-redistricting. Long, also officially carrying the Conservative Party line, will face Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) in a long shot November challenge effort.

Voters Choose Candidates Today in Utah, S.C., N.Y., Okla., Colo., Primaries

Voters in five states go to the polls today to nominate US Senate and House candidates.

• In Utah, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) is encouraged by a new poll (June 12-19; 500 eligible Utah voters) from Key Research, a local Utah-based firm, in conjunction with the Utah Data Points research and information blog. According to the data, Hatch leads former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist (R) 51-22 percent among eligible GOP primary voters and 56-25 percent among those self-described “likely” voters.

• South Carolinians in the new 7th Congressional District will choose both a Republican and Democratic nominee in the run-off vote. The Democrats now have an official run-off election after a local Horry County court judge ruled that votes cast for a withdrawn candidate do count, meaning candidate Gloria Tinubu, who was originally declared the victor, is now forced to a run-off with second place finisher Preston Brittain. The Republican race is between former lieutenant governor Andre Bauer and Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice, the latter of whom Gov. Nikki Haley (R) just publicly endorsed.

• In New York, Democrats are looking at eight contested primaries, including those for incumbents Nydia Velazquez (D-NY-7), Yvette Clarke (D-NY-9), and Charlie Rangel (D-NY-13). Republicans have just one seriously contested primary, that in the new 27th District for the right to challenge freshman Rep. Kathy Hochul (D).

• Both Democrats and Republicans in Oklahoma will vote in the first round of polling in the open 2nd District (Rep. Dan Boren (D) retiring). Run-offs, to be held on Aug. 28, are likely for both parties.

• Finally, Colorado will also hold a primary. The only race of any significance is the Republican intra-party challenge to Rep. Doug Lamborn in the Colorado Springs-based 5th District. Wealthy businessman Robert Blaha is running a major self-funded effort against the incumbent, dropping more than $700,000 of his own money into the race even before the end of March.

We will provide results and analysis on Wednesday morning.

Will the Blue Dogs Become Extinct?

The defeat of Pennsylvania Reps. Jason Altmire (D-PA-4) and Tim Holden (D-PA-17) in last Tuesday’s Democratic primary election forced the Blue Dog Coalition to absorb two more hits. Looking ahead to the general election, the already decimated caucus appears to be staring at even more adversity.

In an era when both parties are nominating doctrinaire ideological candidates, the ranks of contenders who describe themselves as moderates are shrinking. Centrist Republicans have grown a bit thanks to the GOP sweep in 2010 but are also poised to decline in this election as 17 of their 54 members are either retiring or facing competitive opponents.

After the 1994 Republican landslide that gave the GOP control of the House for the first time since 1948, the moderate Democrats decided to form their own official House caucus and did so under an unusual name. Because they were inspired by the paintings of Cajun artist George Rodrique, who often pictured animated blue dogs with deep, yellow eyes, and because of the common southern political phrase, “yellow dog Democrats” the group found its identity. A yellow dog Democrat, it is said, is an individual who will vote for a yellow dog before supporting a Republican. Saying that the extreme positions of both parties where “choking them (the moderate Democratic House members) blue,” the “Blue Dog Coalition” came into being.

When 2009 began, the Blue Dog Coalition numbered 54 members. At the end of the 111th Congress, right after the 2010 election, the coalition saw exactly half of its members (27) either retire or fail in their bids for re-election; mostly the latter. With the early 2011 congressional resignation of Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA-36) and congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ-8) following suit at the beginning of 2012, the caucus now numbers 25. Accounting for retirements, primary defeats, and possible general election defeats, the membership could potentially total only 10 at the beginning of the next Congress.

So far, four Blue Dog congressmen – Dan Boren (D-OK-2), Dennis Cardoza (D-CA-18), Mike Ross (D-AR-4) and Heath Shuler (D-NC-11) – have already announced their retirement plans. And, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN-2) is running for the Senate. As mentioned above, Reps. Altmire and Holden already have lost their primaries, meaning that the effective caucus membership eligible to return next year is 18.

But the leakage is likely to continue. An additional eight members face highly competitive re-election fights. For Reps. Joe Baca (D-CA-43), John Barrow (D-GA-12), Leonard Boswell (D-IA-3), Ben Chandler (D-KY-6), Larry Kissell (D-NC-8), Jim Matheson (D-UT-2), Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7) and Mike Michaud (D-ME-2) either renomination or re-election is no certainty.

Furthermore, of the 11 candidates the Blue Dog Coalition has so far endorsed, none, today, are favored to win their elections. They are:

1. AR-4: Clark Hall (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
2. FL-2: Leonard Bembry (D) vs. Rep. Steve Southerland (R) – Underdog
3. IN-2: Brendan Mullen (D) vs. Jackie Walorski (R) – Underdog
4. IN-8: Dave Crooks (D) vs. Rep. Larry Bucshon (R) — Underdog
5. MI-1: Gary McDowell (D) vs. Rep. Dan Benishek (R) – Toss-up
6. NC-11: Hayden Rogers (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
7. ND-AL: Pam Gulleson (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
8. OH-6: Former Rep. Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Rep. Bill Johnson (R) – Toss-up
9. OK-2: Rob Wallace (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
10. SC-7: Ted Vick (D) vs. R nominee – Underdog
11. TX-14: Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) vs. R nominee – Toss-up (at best)

With eight of its members in tough races and no guaranteed winners among the 11 candidates the coalition has officially endorsed, it appears that the Blue Dogs are headed for another difficult political year. Though polling respondents often like to define themselves as “middle of the road” or “moderate,” it is evident from the electoral results that the majority of voters don’t choose in such a manner.

Update: House Review – Part II

We trust everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving break. Resuming our coverage of the post-redistricting states as it relates to congressional maps, we analyze the remaining 13 states that have completed their drawing process for 2012. Legal action in some states could ultimately change the maps, but odds are strong that the 25 states with plans already adopted through their legislative and/or court processes will stand at least through the next election. To look over Part I of our two-part series, please go to this link: House Review – Part I.

Massachusetts

Rep. Barney Frank’s (D-MA-4) district becomes a bit more Republican, and it appears to be gathering serious general election competition between the two parties now with Frank’s impending retirement announcement at this writing. In a district that looked like the D’s would easily prevail next November with a Frank re-election, things now appear to be not so certain. More on that in another upcoming separate post.

The loss of a district in reapportionment prompted the retirement of Rep. John Olver (D-MA-1). And with Frank joining him in retirement, only eight of the 10 current incumbents are seeking re-election; and all now have a single-member district in which to run. New Districts 1 and 2 are combined into a large western Massachusetts seat covering the Springfield-Chicopee metro area and stretching to the New York border through Pittsfield and Amherst. The new 1st District is safely Democratic, but Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA-2) is getting a primary challenge from former state Senator Andrea Nuciforo, currently a Berkshire County local official.

Freshman Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA-10) has decided to run in the new 9th District, despite his Quincy metro area political base being placed in Rep. Stephen Lynch’s new 8th District. Keating will probably be tested in the Democratic primary, but the eventual winner of that contest holds the seat in the general election.

Michigan

Republicans are in total control of the Michigan redistricting process, so it is no surprise that the Democrats will absorb the loss of a seat from reapportionment. The map pairs veteran Rep. Sander Levin (D-MA-12) with sophomore Gary Peters (D-MI-9) in a new, safely Democratic 9th District but the latter has chosen an alternative course to re-election. Instead of challenging Rep. Levin, Mr. Peters has announced his intention to run in the new majority black 14th District. Freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-MI-13) is seeking re-election here, so this seat will host the pairing instead of District 9. Since Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence is also in the race, Peters believes that the African-American vote will be split between she and Rep. Clarke. Therefore, he has the potential of building a white voter coalition large enough to win a primary with a small plurality, since the state has no run-off procedure. This strategy is a long shot, and Clarke has to be rated as the early favorite.

The new 11th District of Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) continues in a competitive mode. He can expect serious competition in both the primary and general elections of 2012. If the Democrats do well nationally, then the 11th District could be in play. Odds are, however, the partisan swing is likely to be R+1 due only to the collapsed Democratic seat.

Missouri

As in Michigan and Massachusetts, the Missouri Democrats will also lose a seat because of reapportionment. Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) has had his 3rd District split several ways, forcing him to seek re-election in the open 2nd District now that Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2) is running for the Senate. MO-2 is a Republican seat, but less so than in the previous draw. Carnahan will have strong general election opposition and is a clear underdog, especially if the top of the 2012 ticket goes Republican. All other incumbents appear to command strong re-election position. The partisan swing is likely to be R+1, with the GOP holding the 2nd District and all other incumbents retaining their new seats.

Nebraska

The Cornhusker State holds all three of its districts for the ensuing decade, and all should remain in the Republican column. Rep. Lee Terry’s (R) NE-2 District, which was becoming more competitive, was strengthened for him somewhat in the new draw. Expect no change in the 3R-0D delegation.

Nevada

The state gained one seat in reapportionment and the legislative process deadlocked, forcing a Nevada court to draw a de novo map. The result should produce one solid Democratic seat – Las Vegas-based District 1 that will be open and features a comeback attempt from defeated Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV-3) – one likely Republican seat – District 2 of newly elected Rep. Mark Amodei (R), but he may face a serious primary against 2010 Republican Senatorial nominee Sharron Angle – and two marginal seats. Rep. Joe Heck’s (R) 3rd District, in Nevada’s southern tail, will continue to see general election competition. The same is likely true for new District 4, which will encompass the northern part of Clark County and travel up through the center of the state. The likely result is a 2R-2D split, with Republicans holding the Amodei and Heck seats, and Democrats claiming the two open seats. Democrats should be in better position as the decade progresses, assuming demographic trends remain similar to present patterns. A 3D-1R split is also possible for 2012 if the Democrats do well in the presidential race and a sweep atmosphere occurs.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State is the Republican counter to the Democrats’ strength in Illinois. The Dem gains likely to be realized in the Land of Lincoln will largely be neutralized here, as the GOP could gain as many as four seats. Reps. David Price (D-NC-4) and Brad Miller (D-NC-13) are paired in a new 4th District that now stretches from Raleigh south to Fayetteville. The winner of this tough intra-party campaign holds the seat in the general election. The new 13th District, now an open seat contest, will heavily favor the eventual Republican nominee. Reps. Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7), Larry Kissell (D-NC-8), and Heath Shuler (D-NC-11) are all seriously endangered and each could lose. The final swing here could be R+3 to R+4.

Oklahoma

The state adopted a map that changes very little among the five congressional districts. District 2, now open because Rep. Dan Boren (D) is not seeking re-election, becomes a strong GOP conversion opportunity. All other incumbents are safe. Because of the open seat, the preliminary projected outcome is R+1.

Oregon

Coming relatively close to gaining a new seat in reapportionment but falling just short, Oregon returns with its five districts for the ensuing decade. The new map changes little, so expect a 4D-1R split to continue for the foreseeable future. The 1st District, now in special election (January 31st) due to Rep. David Wu’s (D) resignation, will likely remain in Democratic hands in the person of state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici who has already won the special primary election. Expect no partisan change here.

South Carolina

Reapportionment adds a new 7th District to the Palmetto State delegation. The new seat is anchored in the Myrtle Beach/Horry County area and then comes south toward Charleston. The GOP controls the state’s entire political process and drew a 6R-1D map that the Department of Justice recently pre-cleared. All five current Republican members, four of whom are freshmen, should have safe seats as does the lone South Carolina Democrat, House Assistant Minority Leader Jim Clyburn (D-SC-6). The Republican nomination process, in all likelihood, will choose the new 7th District congressman. Because of the addition of the new seat, expect a partisan swing of R+1.

Texas

The Republicans’ inability to produce a legally sound 36-District map will now cost the party at least three seats. The draw produced from the legislative process would likely have elected 26 Republicans and 10 Democrats, a gain of three Republicans and one Democrat from the current 23R-9D delegation split. With the new, just unveiled court map, which we will detail in tomorrow’s PRIsm Redistricting Report, a 23R-13D result is possible. Democrats will now likely win three of the four new seats and Rep. Quico Canseco (R-TX-23) is in an even more precarious position for re-election. The districts of Reps. Joe Barton (R-TX-6) and Michael McCaul (R-TX-10) become more Democratic and could become competitive, but likely in elections beyond 2012 as demographics continue to evolve. If Canseco wins, a distinct possibility next year as the national elections will undoubtedly favor the Republicans in Texas, the delegation count will be 24R-12D, a gain of three Democratic seats, while the GOP increases one. If the Democrats successfully unseat the freshman Canseco, the split will likely result in a net gain of four Democratic seats.

Utah

The Beehive State also gains an additional district from reapportionment and the Republicans have a chance of sweeping the state. The new map could yield a 4R-0D result, but Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT-2) has proven he can survive in strongly Republican districts. If he decides to run for governor, however, a GOP sweep becomes much more realistic. Reps. Rob Bishop (R-UT-1) and Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) get safe seats. Districts 2 and 4 should also elect Republican candidates, but Matheson’s presence in one of those seats could change such an outcome. Expect at least a 3R-1D split for a minimum gain of one Republican seat; two, if they can finally defeat Matheson or he vacates to run statewide. At this point, the congressman has ruled out a challenge to Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), but has not closed the door to opposing Gov. Gary Herbert (R).

West Virginia

The legislative process produced a no-change map that basically keeps the current seats intact. The 1st District is still marginal, so expect freshman Rep. David McKinley (R) to have major competition in his re-election battle. The voter history patterns still suggest a Republican victory, however, so it is likely to remain in the toss-up category. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2) retains the basic outline of her seat, which she has made relatively solid for herself despite the region’s Democratic overtones. New District 3 remains safe for Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV-3). The 1st District campaign will decide if the state breaks 2R-1D or 2D-1R.

Wisconsin

Republicans control the process here, too, and drew a map that locks in their 5R-3D majority, possibly for the entire decade. Realistically, this is the best the GOP can do in the Badger State. Expect all incumbents to retain their seats. Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI-2) is vacating her Madison-anchored seat to run for the Senate, but her replacement will be determined in the Democratic primary. Rep. Ron Kind’s (D) 3rd District becomes more Democratic so as to produce a more Republican seat for freshman Rep. Sean Duffy (R-WI-7). The adjoining districts traded segments of voters to strengthen each for the respective incumbents. This is particularly important for Duffy as he is the first Republican to represent northwest Wisconsin in more than 40 years.

Rep. Kildee’s Retirement Should Not Affect Balance

Rep. Dale Kildee (D-MI-5)

The number of open 2012 US House campaigns grew to 30 over the weekend. Michigan Rep. Dale Kildee (D-MI-5), who turns 82 years old in September, announced his retirement, saying he will bring his 36-year congressional career to a close when the current Congress ends. Prior to joining the House of Representatives Mr. Kildee spent 12 years in the Michigan state legislature, meaning he has been an elected public official for 48 consecutive years. He becomes the 18th sitting Representative to announce intentions not to seek re-election. Fifteen of these members are running for a different office. Kildee and Reps. Lynn Woolsey (D-CA-6) and Dan Boren (D-OK-2) are retiring from politics. An additional 12 new seats are created via reapportionment.

Michigan Democrats should easily retain the new 5th district because it was designed as a safe seat for Kildee, anchored in the congressman’s home town of Flint. It’s the third most under-populated seat in the state, however, needing to gain 70,845 people.

The new CD 5 will contain four complete counties, Genesee (Flint), Bay (Bay City, bordering Lake Huron Bay in the Thumb Area of Michigan), Arenac, and Iosco. The district also encompasses parts of Saginaw and Tuscola counties. The 64 percent Obama score in 2008 will remain relatively intact, thus removing it from any practical general election competition. Mr. Kildee’s 53-44 winning percentage in 2010 was down from his average of 71.5 percent over his past 17 congressional elections. The new seat is unlikely to get any closer from a partisan perspective, and will probably remain that way for the balance of the new electoral decade.

The Democrats have many choices to replace the outgoing incumbent, including his nephew, Dan Kildee, who is a former Genesee County Treasurer, County Commissioner, and Flint School Board member. He was a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2010 for a short time, but dropped out of the race prior to filing time.

Former Lt. Gov. John Cherry, is from this congressional district and would be a strong candidate should he decide to enter the federal race. He also declined to run for governor even though he appeared to be the consensus Democratic candidate when he decided to discontinue his fledging campaign.

Ex-Rep. Jim Barcia (D-MI-5), hailing from Bay City, served in the House for five terms beginning in 1993. He was redistricted out of his 5th district in the 2001 reapportionment (at that time, Mr. Kildee represented District 9) and proceeded to win election to the state Senate where he served the maximum two four-year terms. The MI-5 Democratic primary base vote is centered in Flint, so any candidate hailing from Bay City has an uphill climb to win the party nomination.

Genesee County Treasurer and former state Sen. Deborah Cherry, sister to the former lieutenant governor, is another potential Democratic congressional candidate. Presumably, the political brother and sister combination would not run against each other in the congressional race, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see one of the two eventually enter the field of contenders.

Republican state Sen. Roger Kahn, also from Saginaw, is the most frequently mentioned GOP potential candidate.

Mr. Kildee’s retirement will not alter the balance of power in the House because the eventual MI-5 Democratic is a virtual lock to win the seat in the general election.
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Carson Reverses Course in Oklahoma

Former Oklahoma Rep. Brad Carson (D), who appeared to be immediately hopping back into the political fray when Rep. Dan Boren (D) announced he would not seek re-election in 2012, has had a change of heart. Mr. Carson, who represented the 2nd district for two terms before running unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2004, would clearly be the Democrats’ best candidate to hold the seat for the party in the general election. He began sending messages yesterday, however, that he has decided not to run.

OK-2 is the state’s eastern congressional district, anchored by the city of Muskogee – made famous in the 1969 Merle Haggard song, “Okie from Muskogee” – features many towns between 10 and 20,000 people and hugs the entire Oklahoma-Arkansas border. The 2nd is a politically changing district, evolving from the quintessential “yellow dog Democrat” seat to a place that will vote Republican (McCain: 66 percent). Regardless of its partisan context, the region remains habitually conservative.

Sen. Tom Coburn became the first Republican to represent this part of the state in the modern political era when he won the congressional seat in 1994. Pledging only to serve three terms, Coburn retired in 2000 thus opening the door for Carson to re-capture the district for the Democrats. Rep. Boren succeeded Carson in 2004.

The former congressman’s surprise decision not to re-enter national politics next year makes this district highly competitive in the general election and gives the Republicans a strong opportunity to convert the seat. State Sen. Kenneth Corn (D), who was already challenging Carson for the Democratic nomination, is obviously now in a stronger position but the nomination is far from his. Since the Democrats have a large number of state and local officials throughout this region, we can expect a crowded and combative party primary. Republicans don’t yet have an announced candidate, but state Sen. Josh Breechen and state Rep. George Faught continue to be mentioned as likely candidates.

Without Carson in the race, expect activity in both parties to rapidly increase. The OK-2 campaign will likely carry a “toss-up” rating at least through the early going of the 2012 election cycle and probably all the way to Election Day.
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