Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘GBA Strategies’

Results From MA-5; Major New Senate Polls

In House, Polling, Senate on October 16, 2013 at 11:37 am

MA-5 Special Election

The race for the Democrat nomination last night, tantamount to special election victory in the Boston suburban 5th Congressional District, was projected to finish within a razor-thin margin. It didn’t.

State Sen. Katherine Clark, riding a large turnout from her Malden-Melrose political base, pulled away from Middlesex County Sheriff Peter Koutoujian when the last quarter of the vote was counted to clinch the Democratic nomination with 32 percent of the vote. Koutoujian finished 10 points behind at 22 percent. In third, exceeding his polling expectations, was state Rep. Carl Sciortino notching 16 percent. State senators Will Brownsberger and Karen Spilka brought up the rear with 15 and 13 percent, respectively. Spilka was the most disappointing performer based upon previous polling releases. Her own two Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Group surveys both showed her in second place, just a single point behind the leader.

Not only did Sen. Clark prove to be the strongest candidate, her polling firm, GBA Strategies, turned in the most accurate data. In their released poll of voters over the Sept. 23-25 period, GBA correctly projected Clark’s lead to be far greater than one point, as she led Spilka 27-18 percent with Koutoujian a close third posting 16 percent.

On the Republican side, attorney Frank Addivinola easily claimed his party’s nomination, securing 49 percent of the vote as compared to physicist Mike Stopa’s 26 percent, and former US Marine Tom Tierney’s 25 percent. Sen. Clark and Addivinola now advance to the Dec. 10 special general election, but that vote will not likely be much of a contest as Clark is now the prohibitive favorite to win the seat.

Democrat turnout dwarfed that of Republicans, as 69,525 members of their party cast ballots within the crowded field of candidates. The GOP turnout only reached just 9,692 voters, a testament more to the low number of registered Republicans as opposed to an abnormally low participation rate. The grand total of 79,217 voters is  Continue reading >

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Halvorson Strategy Working Early

In Election Analysis, House, Polling on January 25, 2013 at 2:53 pm
Debbie Halvorson

Debbie Halvorson

The first two election surveys have been released for the Feb. 26 special Democratic primary race in Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District, and the polling leader in both instances isn’t who one would expect. Former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL-11), hoping to split the 60 percent-plus, majority African-American voter contingent among at least six well-known black candidates and win with a small plurality coalition of white voters, appears to be in early position to achieve her strategic objective.

The Normington-Petts Democratic survey research firm just completed an internal poll (Jan. 8-10; 400 likely Democratic primary voters) for candidate Toi Hutchinson, who Continue reading >

Incumbent Pairing Too Close to Call in OH-16

In House, Polling on August 3, 2012 at 2:25 pm

Sutton | Renacci


In Ohio’s only general election congressional race pitting two incumbent members against each other, a new poll reveals a very tight contest with tremendously high stakes.

A GBA Strategies internal poll (July 15-19; 500 likely OH-16 voters; margin of error plus-or-minus 4.4 percentage points) conducted for Democratic Rep. Betty Sutton shows her to be in a statistical dead-heat against GOP freshman Rep. Jim Renacci. The data gives Sutton 42 percent as compared to Renacci’s 40 percent.

Surprisingly, Libertarian candidate Jeff Blevins is taking a sizable 12 percent of the sampled voters. This latter number causes some to question the poll’s methodology because, for a sole independent candidate, these figures are much higher than what is normally seen. Third-party candidates have shown to typically under-perform in their poll results, so it is likely his actual vote total will return to the low single-digit percentages that are normally recorded for such candidates. Interestingly, GBA projects Blevins to be drawing his support equally from both Democrats and Republicans.

The current results show little change from GBA’s October poll that projected the race to be tied, with each candidate attracting 45 percent of the vote. Blevins, however, was not factored into the earlier poll. The numbers are also in line with a June poll from Normington Petts & Associates, a Democratic survey research firm, that found Sutton to be leading Renacci 41-38 percent. In July, the Democratic-leaning House Majority PAC further confirmed Sutton and Renacci were statistically tied at 40 percent, with Blevins taking a much smaller share of the vote.

The 2011 redistricting plan paired Sutton and Renacci as a result of Ohio losing two congressional seats in reapportionment due to slow population growth. With a Republican legislature in control of the redistricting pen, the two were placed in a seat that favors Renacci in a head-to-head race with Sutton. Renacci carries over 41.8 percent residents from his current seat, while Sutton has far fewer constituents in the new 16th. Her carry-over figure is half that of Renacci’s, at 20.6 percent.

With polling leaving us in a statistically deadlocked race, we turn to the importance of spending and fundraising. Renacci was the stronger fundraiser last quarter according to the latest Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports (closed June 30). He reported raising approximately $502,000 compared to Sutton’s $293,000. Additionally, Renacci ended the quarter with approximately $1.5 million cash on hand, compared to Sutton’s $900,000. Contrary to 2010 when the Republican self-contributed more than $752,000, this year he has only invested $2,500 into his re-election campaign.

Both campaigns and outside liberal and conservative groups already have reserved millions of dollars in TV advertising time in the Cleveland media market. Groups such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) already have reserved over $3 million in Cleveland ad time and similarly the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) as well as other groups has reserved $2 million buys thus far.

This member vs. member match-up has been a tight battle since the seat was redrawn and guarantees to be a horse race until the end. Both candidates have the experience, resources, outside support, and staff to run strong campaigns. OH-16 is considered to be a top race for both the DCCC and NRCC this fall, so stay tuned.

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