Hawaii Shockers: Schatz/Hanabusa Tight, Abercrombie Crushed

Senate

Though polling in this race suggested that either appointed Sen. Brian Schatz or Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1) held substantial leads heading into Saturday’s Democratic primary, the campaign finished much different than predicted.

Most of the polling posted Schatz to advantages approaching double-digits, though the race’s final public survey, from Honolulu-based Ward Research, found that Hanabusa held a similar edge. No late-term poll had suggested the race was virtually tied, which is now occurring … present tense, because the campaign is not over.

Since the hurricanes that hit on and around the islands struck ground literally hours before the primary, it may be a couple of weeks before the final outcome is reported and certified. Though Sen. Schatz has a 1,659-vote lead, two precincts on the Big Island of Hawaii remain to be counted. Since roads were closed due to the storms, preventing thousands of voters from having access to the polls, election officials are saying they will expand the voting period.

Due to the closeness of the vote, and that as many as 8,000 voters were unable to cast their ballots on Saturday in the region’s Puna precincts, the affected individuals will

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Razor-Thin Tennessee Results; Walsh; Hawaii, Tomorrow

Tennessee – Statewide

Sen. Lamar Alexander won renomination last night in Tennessee, and while his margin wasn’t razor-thin, his victory percentage was unimpressive. Scoring just 50 percent in his own Republican primary, Alexander out-polled state Rep. Joe Carr’s 41 percent. The remaining five candidates split the outstanding vote.

But the closeness of the contest occurred on the Democratic side, in what will likely be a battle for the right to lose to Alexander in November. Attorney Gordon Ball has been projected the winner, leading attorney Terry Adams by just 1,911 votes statewide.

One thing is clear, however. The statewide turnout overwhelmingly favored Republicans. Approximately 645,000 individuals voted in the Republican primary as compared with just under 240,000 who participated on the Democratic side.

On the other end of the margin perspective, Gov. Bill Haslam (R) cruised to an 88 percent victory. He will face Democrat

Entering Primary Season’s Final Stretch

As we enter the primary season’s final stretch, 19 states still have yet to choose their 2014 nominees. The first nine days of August will bring voters to the polls in a half-dozen states with much to be decided.

August 5

The most active day is the first Tuesday in August. Four states are holding primaries, featuring one key Senate nomination battle.

In Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) faces a GOP challenge from physician Milton Wolf. Roberts has made several mis-steps during the campaign, including admitting that he doesn’t own property in his state, possessing a Virginia personalized license plate that identifies him as the Kansas senator, and saying that he returns home, “every time he has an opponent.” Despite the gaffes, Dr. Wolf appears to be a flawed candidate and is not likely to deny Roberts renomination.

An Array of Surprises Lining up for Incumbents

On the heels of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning Republican primary loss last week in Virginia, a series of new polls and developments suggest further surprises could be on the political horizon …

LA-5

First, in Louisiana, scandal-tainted Rep. Vance McAllister (R-LA-5), who announced that he would not seek a second term after being caught in an extra-marital affair, stated in a local radio interview this week that he is having second thoughts about retiring and is now leaning “55-45” in favor of running again. This development certainly merits further attention.

State Sen. Neil Riser (R), whom McAllister defeated in the 2013 special election after then-Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) resigned, has not yet committed to the race but is certainly leaning toward running based upon his public comments. The Louisiana filing deadline, because the jungle primary runs concurrently with the November general election, isn’t until Aug. 22, so much time remains for both men, and others, to finally decide upon their 2014 electoral

Hawaii Heating Up

Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1)

When Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) appointed Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz (D) to replace the late Sen. Daniel Inouye (D), he ignited a budding Democratic Party firestorm. Sen. Inouye, before his death, communicated to the governor that his favored choice for a successor was Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1). Hanabusa, reportedly miffed for being passed over despite the esteemed Senator’s endorsement, is already beginning to rattle her political saber.

In an interview with KHON-TV in Honolulu, the congresswoman confirmed that she is considering a race against both Schatz and Abercrombie as well as running for re-election. In response to a direct question about her future political plans, Hanabusa confirmed that “… they will all be on the

Hawaii Primary Battles?

Hawaii Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz (D)

Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s appointment of Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz to replace the late Sen. Daniel Inouye may have ignited an internal Democratic Party firestorm. As was well-reported, Sen. Inouye, soon before his death, had communicated his desire to the governor and his staff of having Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1) replace him.

Under Hawaii succession law, it was up to the Democratic Party — since the vacating federal official was a member of that particular political organization – to convene and provide the governor the names of three individuals, one of which he would be compelled to choose. (The appointee serves until the next regular election – the November 2014 general, in this instance. Since Inouye was re-elected to a full six-year term in 2010, Schatz will now

Hanabusa Makes it Official

A day after it was publicly released that the late Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) made clear his wish for Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1) to succeed him, the first-term congresswoman immediately qualified herself for the appointment. In a letter to the Hawaii Democratic Party leadership, Hanabusa officially asked to be included on the list of recommended potential senatorial replacement candidates.

Under Hawaii election law, a vacancy in a US Senate post must be filled by a member of the vacating senator’s party. In this case, the Hawaii Democratic Party under state Chairman Dante Keala Carpenter, must provide Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) the names of three Senate replacement candidates, of which he must choose one to serve until the 2014 special election, which will be held concurrently with the regular election calendar. It is widely believed that Abercrombie will now appoint Hanabusa, thus honoring the late senator’s wish, and will do so before the Senate comes to order on Jan. 3. There is some speculation that the Party will only submit Hanabusa’s name to Gov. Abercrombie, if such a move is legally allowable.

Special Election Highlights

The late Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii)

Much political news and speculation continues to unfold in places where Senate replacement appointments and congressional special elections will soon occur. With a South Carolina Senate appointment just being made that will lead to a congressional special election, another state with a new vacancy, Hawaii, may be following a similar path. Finally, a new development in the IL-2 House special could have a major impact upon that particular election.

Hawaii

Sen. Daniel Inouye’s (D-Hawaii) death on Monday is leading to conjecture about who will be named as the 50-year senatorial leader’s replacement, but the late lawmaker may already have cleared a path for one of his colleagues.

In a letter to Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) and