Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Gov. Nikki Haley’

Challengers Chances in Virginia’s Tuesday Primary; Quiet in South Carolina; First Iowa Numbers

In Election Analysis on June 9, 2014 at 11:31 am

Tomorrow’s Virginia primary is decision day for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s Republican primary challenge. Conservative college professor David Brat has raised over $200,000 with minimal outside support for his effort to dislodge the sitting incumbent, but he is very likely to meet the same fate as the others who have challenged the national Republican leaders.

Earlier in the primary season, senators Mitch McConnell (R-KY; 60 percent of the vote) and John Cornyn (R-TX; 59 percent) were renominated against challengers from the right, as was House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH-8; 69 percent).

Rep. Cantor is outspending Brat by more than a 20:1 ratio, and has taken a surprisingly active and negative track in this campaign. His strategy is an interesting one in that he is attempting to deflect a hard right offensive by portraying Brat as being insufficiently conservative. Naturally, Brat makes the same argument against Cantor.  Continue reading >

More Official Filings in Virginia, South Carolina

In Election Analysis on April 2, 2014 at 10:06 am

Candidate filing deadlines have now passed in three more states, Virginia, South Carolina, and Colorado, meaning that official candidates exist in 29 states. The Colorado candidate list will become final in the next few days.

Virginia

In the Senate race, Sen. Mark Warner (D) has drawn four opponents, including former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. Delegates will meet in convention to choose the nominee, which will be Gillespie.

In House races, Reps. Bobby Scott (D-VA-3), Randy Forbes (R-VA-4), Bob Goodlatte (R-VA-6), and Morgan Griffith (R-VA-9), all have no major party opponent in the general election. Minor primary or Independent candidates do await the incumbents, however.

Representatives Rob Wittman (R-VA-1),  Continue reading >

Will History Repeat in Alabama?

In Governor, House, Polling on November 1, 2013 at 10:42 am
Bradley Byrne

Bradley Byrne

According to a brand new flash poll, history may repeat itself in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District special run-off election scheduled for next Tuesday.

In 2010, Alabama state Sen. Bradley Byrne scored 27.9 percent of the statewide Republican gubernatorial vote to finish in first place and advance to the two-person run-off election. He was paired with Tuscaloosa dermatologist and state Rep. Robert Bentley, who qualified for the secondary vote with the barest of margins over the man placing third, Tim James, the son of former Gov. Fob James. Backed by the various Tea Party organizations and his strongly conservative base voter, Bentley soared past Sen. Byrne to capture a 56-44 percent Republican nomination run-off victory, and then was elected governor in the general election.

Now, as a candidate in the special congressional election for resigned Rep. Jo Bonner’s (R-AL-1) former position, Byrne again placed first in the original primary, garnering 35 percent of the total Republican vote. He faces businessman and conservative activist Dean Young, who scored 23 percent on Sept. 24, but is now running much closer according to late race polling.

Byrne is leaving no stone unturned in this run-off campaign, employing aggressive fundraising and advertising techniques, capturing more endorsements, benefiting from outside independent expenditure advocacy, and attracting establishment Republican support. But, according to a new Cygnal consulting firm flash poll conducted on Oct. 30, Byrne has dropped behind his opponent, Young, by a 43-40 percent  Continue reading >

Will Gov. Haley Commit?

In Governor on June 25, 2013 at 12:12 pm
Gov. Nikki Haley

Gov. Nikki Haley

According to a report in the Florence (SC) Morning News, Gov. Nikki Haley (R) is not yet committed to running for re-election next year.

The governor, a former state Representative who was elected to South Carolina’s top post in 2010, is eligible to seek a second term under the state’s election law. But, she told a Florence news reporter in an interview, “… if we look and it’s too much on the family, I could absolutely see (not running again).”

If Haley did not seek re-election, it would not be altogether surprising. First, her husband is currently deployed in Afghanistan and the couple has young children. Second, computer hackers broke into the state revenue department’s online system, thus compromising the state taxpayers’ confidential financial information, which has caused the governor major political problems. Third, her election victory percentage against state Sen. Vincent Shaheen (D) was underwhelming: 51-47 percent in what proved to be a landslide Republican year. Fourth, Shaheen has already announced his 2014 candidacy.

Should Haley run again, and she did stress in the interview that her campaign apparatus is ready to go, the race will be competitive despite South Carolina’s strong Republican disposition. There will be much more to come from the Palmetto State.

Sanford Closing; Gomez Within Four

In House, Polling on May 6, 2013 at 10:42 am
Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D)

Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D)

Tomorrow is Election Day in the SC-1 special and there are signals that former governor Mark Sanford (R) is rapidly closing against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch. Public Policy Polling is scheduled to release a final survey of the race later today. There was a local poll floating around last week that actually showed the race tied, but the data did not appear reliable so the results should be discarded.

But there is a sense that the trends are moving in Sanford’s direction. During the last week, senators Lindsey Graham (R) and Tim Scott (R) both endorsed the former governor and congressman, as did Gov. Nikki Haley (R). Normally, it is not particularly noteworthy when the party elected officials endorse a party nominee but, in this case with Sanford’s well-publicized problems and the National Republican Congressional Committee publicly disowning the race, the actions do show some positive momentum for the damaged candidate.

As always is the case with special elections, the turnout model will be key. A lower voter participation figure will likely favor the Democrat because the district is heavily Republican. Busch must still be considered the favorite, but the result may be closer than was predicted just a week ago.
 Continue reading >

Sanford Does it Again!

In House on April 18, 2013 at 10:59 am
Mark Sanford (R)

Mark Sanford (R)

Mark Sanford is in trouble again. Allegedly violating his divorce agreement with his ex-wife Jenny Sanford, the former South Carolina Republican governor now faces a trespassing hearing two days after the May 7 special election. In response to the latest controversy, the National Republican Congressional Committee released a statement saying they will not fund the special election. This all but assures Democratic nominee Elizabeth Colbert Busch will now win what should be a safe Republican seat.

Though it appeared Republican voters were willing to give Sanford the second chance he requested, it is highly unlikely that they will award him a third such opportunity. Thus, the string of bad Republican luck and performances they have experienced in special elections during the past few years looks to be continuing.

If Busch Wins

Let’s turn the clock ahead to the regular election next year, when Republicans should be well positioned to reclaim the seat from a Congresswoman Busch. With many potential candidates such as former Charleston County Councilman Curtis Bostic, state Sen. Larry Grooms, state Rep. Chip Limehouse, and businessman Teddy Turner, among others waiting in the wings, it appears the GOP will field a strong opponent to Busch in the regular election.
 Continue reading >

The South Carolina Special

In Governor, Senate on January 3, 2013 at 12:32 pm
Gov. Mark Sanford (R)

Gov. Mark Sanford (R)

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) has scheduled the special election to replace senator-designee Tim Scott (R-SC-1) in the House as he moves to the Senate to replace resigned Sen. Jim DeMint (R).

The 1st Congressional District party primaries will occur on March 19, with a run-off on April 2 should no candidate receive a majority vote. The special general election will then follow on May 7.

The now vacant CD-1 includes most of what is commonly referred to as South Carolina’s “Low Country.” It contains part of the city of Charleston and the Sea Islands, located along the way to the Georgia border, picking up the Mt. Pleasant, Beaufort and Hilton Head communities. The seat is heavily Republican (Rep. Scott won a 62.4 percent Continue reading>

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