Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Gov. Rod Blagojevich’

Daley for Governor

In Governor on June 12, 2013 at 11:08 am

The Daley family Chicago political dynasty has never produced a governor, but that may soon change if former US Commerce secretary Bill Daley realizes his new quest. Announcing via video the formation of a gubernatorial exploratory committee, Daley, son of former Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley and brother of ex-mayor Richard M. Daley, will almost certainly challenge incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.

There has been little doubt that the unpopular Quinn would be in a difficult position for renomination, let alone re-election. Most of the attention, however, has been focused upon Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who is expected to make the race in 2014 after shying away from a similar challenge in 2010. A three-way contest among Quinn, Madigan, and Daley could produce unexpected results.

The move to run for governor is out of character for Daley in several ways. First, challenging a Democratic opponent is an unusual act for a man who has exemplified party unity throughout his entire political career. Daley is a former US Commerce secretary for President Clinton, chairman of Vice President Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign, and an ex-chief of staff for President Barack Obama. He also spent time in the banking industry and as a law firm partner.

His video message is interesting in that it clearly reveals his political strategy. Obviously the product of extensive survey research of the Democratic voting base,  Continue reading >

Those Wacky, Crazy Illinois Polls

In Polls on October 5, 2010 at 2:45 pm

Three pollsters just simultaneously surveyed the Illinois statewide political landscape and came up with decidedly different results. Suffolk University, Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune, and Public Policy Polling were all in the field from Sept. 23 – Oct. 3. In the Governor’s race, both Suffolk and Market Shares actually found embattled Gov. Pat Quinn (D) to be reclaiming the lead over state Sen. Bill Brady (R), after trailing for several weeks. Suffolk projected Quinn’s best margin; a 43-37% result. Still, an incumbent in the low 40s is a poor sign, and this is the top number for the Democrat who replaced impeached Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) and barely won the Democratic nomination in February. Market Shares gives Quinn only a 39-38% advantage. Public Policy Polling, coming in with numbers more in line with other recent studies, gives Republican Brady a 42-35% lead.

The Senate numbers are similar. Market Shares finds state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) leading Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by just two points, 38-36%. Suffolk and PPP have Kirk ahead. Suffolk scores it 42-41% for the Republican and PPP finds Kirk’s advantage to be a mere four points, 40-36%. With companion polls forecasting different leaders, these two races are still anybody’s game with less than a month of campaign time remaining. Watch for a photo finish in both for both Governor and the Senate.