Hatch Forced to Primary

Sen. Orrin Hatch failed to secure his nomination for a seventh term Saturday at the Utah Republican Convention, falling a scant 32 votes short. Hatch received 3,213 votes once the field winnowed to he and former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist, but 3,245 were needed to avoid a June 26 primary. Hatch’s official convention vote percentage was 59.1, but 60 percent is required to clinch the nomination.

Pre-convention polling proved spot on. The publicly released Dan Jones Associates studies suggested that Sen. Hatch was hovering right around the 60 percent mark, but it was unclear as to whether he could go over the top. Gov. Gary Herbert (R), also being challenged for renomination, was in a similar position to Hatch but he escaped with a convention victory. Herbert claimed 63 percent of the delegate vote and will advance to the general election against retired Army Major General Peter Cooke (D). The governor now becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election.

Hatch begins the Senate primary election in very strong political position, however. Polling conducted several weeks ago posted him to a comfortable lead against any potential GOP challenger. He is also in superior financial standing. The candidates’ April 1 financial disclosure report showed the senator to be holding $3.2 million in his campaign account versus just $242,000 for Liljenquist. The eventual Republican nominee will be pitted against former state Senate Minority Leader Scott Howell, who won the Democratic nomination with 63 percent of the vote at his party’s convention, also on Saturday.

In House races, incumbent Republicans Rob Bishop (R-UT-1) and Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) were easily renominated and move forward into what should be non-competitive November political contests.

In the open 2nd District (part of Salt Lake and Utah counties plus five smaller counties), no primary will occur for either party. For the dominant GOP, businessman Chris Stewart, withstanding coordinated negative attacks generated in unison from the other candidates, cracked the 60 percent threshold and captured the congressional nomination. He defeated former Utah House Speaker David Clark on the final vote, despite none of the other candidates endorsing Stewart after they themselves were eliminated on previous ballots. Mr. Stewart will be favored in the general election against former state Rep. Jay Seegmiller, who easily won the Democratic nomination.

But it was the 4th District (parts of Salt Lake, Utah, Sanpete and Juab Counties) that yielded the most interesting result. Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, the daughter of Haitian immigrants, captured 70.4 percent on the final ballot and derailed former state Rep. Carl Wimmer to claim the nomination. The redistricting plan had crafted this seat for Wimmer, but he proved no match for the charismatic Love. The new nominee also enjoyed national support, backed by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Chief Deputy Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, and House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan.

The 4th District general election could be one of the most interesting in the nation. Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT-2), despite previously representing only one-third of the new 4th District’s constituency, decided that his re-election chances are better here than in his current 2nd District even though he represents 40 percent of the new UT-2. The Obama ’08 percentage in new District 4 is 41 percent, as compared to 39 percent in the current 2nd.

A Matheson-Love campaign promises to be hard-fought, and will likely culminate in a close finish. Now that the general election is set, move this race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-up.” The change is due to Love’s strength as a challenger, now that nominees are determined, and the Republican nature of new District 4.

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Update: House Review – Part II

We trust everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving break. Resuming our coverage of the post-redistricting states as it relates to congressional maps, we analyze the remaining 13 states that have completed their drawing process for 2012. Legal action in some states could ultimately change the maps, but odds are strong that the 25 states with plans already adopted through their legislative and/or court processes will stand at least through the next election. To look over Part I of our two-part series, please go to this link: House Review – Part I.

Massachusetts

Rep. Barney Frank’s (D-MA-4) district becomes a bit more Republican, and it appears to be gathering serious general election competition between the two parties now with Frank’s impending retirement announcement at this writing. In a district that looked like the D’s would easily prevail next November with a Frank re-election, things now appear to be not so certain. More on that in another upcoming separate post.

The loss of a district in reapportionment prompted the retirement of Rep. John Olver (D-MA-1). And with Frank joining him in retirement, only eight of the 10 current incumbents are seeking re-election; and all now have a single-member district in which to run. New Districts 1 and 2 are combined into a large western Massachusetts seat covering the Springfield-Chicopee metro area and stretching to the New York border through Pittsfield and Amherst. The new 1st District is safely Democratic, but Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA-2) is getting a primary challenge from former state Senator Andrea Nuciforo, currently a Berkshire County local official.

Freshman Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA-10) has decided to run in the new 9th District, despite his Quincy metro area political base being placed in Rep. Stephen Lynch’s new 8th District. Keating will probably be tested in the Democratic primary, but the eventual winner of that contest holds the seat in the general election.

Michigan

Republicans are in total control of the Michigan redistricting process, so it is no surprise that the Democrats will absorb the loss of a seat from reapportionment. The map pairs veteran Rep. Sander Levin (D-MA-12) with sophomore Gary Peters (D-MI-9) in a new, safely Democratic 9th District but the latter has chosen an alternative course to re-election. Instead of challenging Rep. Levin, Mr. Peters has announced his intention to run in the new majority black 14th District. Freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-MI-13) is seeking re-election here, so this seat will host the pairing instead of District 9. Since Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence is also in the race, Peters believes that the African-American vote will be split between she and Rep. Clarke. Therefore, he has the potential of building a white voter coalition large enough to win a primary with a small plurality, since the state has no run-off procedure. This strategy is a long shot, and Clarke has to be rated as the early favorite.

The new 11th District of Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R) continues in a competitive mode. He can expect serious competition in both the primary and general elections of 2012. If the Democrats do well nationally, then the 11th District could be in play. Odds are, however, the partisan swing is likely to be R+1 due only to the collapsed Democratic seat.

Missouri

As in Michigan and Massachusetts, the Missouri Democrats will also lose a seat because of reapportionment. Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) has had his 3rd District split several ways, forcing him to seek re-election in the open 2nd District now that Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO-2) is running for the Senate. MO-2 is a Republican seat, but less so than in the previous draw. Carnahan will have strong general election opposition and is a clear underdog, especially if the top of the 2012 ticket goes Republican. All other incumbents appear to command strong re-election position. The partisan swing is likely to be R+1, with the GOP holding the 2nd District and all other incumbents retaining their new seats.

Nebraska

The Cornhusker State holds all three of its districts for the ensuing decade, and all should remain in the Republican column. Rep. Lee Terry’s (R) NE-2 District, which was becoming more competitive, was strengthened for him somewhat in the new draw. Expect no change in the 3R-0D delegation.

Nevada

The state gained one seat in reapportionment and the legislative process deadlocked, forcing a Nevada court to draw a de novo map. The result should produce one solid Democratic seat – Las Vegas-based District 1 that will be open and features a comeback attempt from defeated Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV-3) – one likely Republican seat – District 2 of newly elected Rep. Mark Amodei (R), but he may face a serious primary against 2010 Republican Senatorial nominee Sharron Angle – and two marginal seats. Rep. Joe Heck’s (R) 3rd District, in Nevada’s southern tail, will continue to see general election competition. The same is likely true for new District 4, which will encompass the northern part of Clark County and travel up through the center of the state. The likely result is a 2R-2D split, with Republicans holding the Amodei and Heck seats, and Democrats claiming the two open seats. Democrats should be in better position as the decade progresses, assuming demographic trends remain similar to present patterns. A 3D-1R split is also possible for 2012 if the Democrats do well in the presidential race and a sweep atmosphere occurs.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State is the Republican counter to the Democrats’ strength in Illinois. The Dem gains likely to be realized in the Land of Lincoln will largely be neutralized here, as the GOP could gain as many as four seats. Reps. David Price (D-NC-4) and Brad Miller (D-NC-13) are paired in a new 4th District that now stretches from Raleigh south to Fayetteville. The winner of this tough intra-party campaign holds the seat in the general election. The new 13th District, now an open seat contest, will heavily favor the eventual Republican nominee. Reps. Mike McIntyre (D-NC-7), Larry Kissell (D-NC-8), and Heath Shuler (D-NC-11) are all seriously endangered and each could lose. The final swing here could be R+3 to R+4.

Oklahoma

The state adopted a map that changes very little among the five congressional districts. District 2, now open because Rep. Dan Boren (D) is not seeking re-election, becomes a strong GOP conversion opportunity. All other incumbents are safe. Because of the open seat, the preliminary projected outcome is R+1.

Oregon

Coming relatively close to gaining a new seat in reapportionment but falling just short, Oregon returns with its five districts for the ensuing decade. The new map changes little, so expect a 4D-1R split to continue for the foreseeable future. The 1st District, now in special election (January 31st) due to Rep. David Wu’s (D) resignation, will likely remain in Democratic hands in the person of state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici who has already won the special primary election. Expect no partisan change here.

South Carolina

Reapportionment adds a new 7th District to the Palmetto State delegation. The new seat is anchored in the Myrtle Beach/Horry County area and then comes south toward Charleston. The GOP controls the state’s entire political process and drew a 6R-1D map that the Department of Justice recently pre-cleared. All five current Republican members, four of whom are freshmen, should have safe seats as does the lone South Carolina Democrat, House Assistant Minority Leader Jim Clyburn (D-SC-6). The Republican nomination process, in all likelihood, will choose the new 7th District congressman. Because of the addition of the new seat, expect a partisan swing of R+1.

Texas

The Republicans’ inability to produce a legally sound 36-District map will now cost the party at least three seats. The draw produced from the legislative process would likely have elected 26 Republicans and 10 Democrats, a gain of three Republicans and one Democrat from the current 23R-9D delegation split. With the new, just unveiled court map, which we will detail in tomorrow’s PRIsm Redistricting Report, a 23R-13D result is possible. Democrats will now likely win three of the four new seats and Rep. Quico Canseco (R-TX-23) is in an even more precarious position for re-election. The districts of Reps. Joe Barton (R-TX-6) and Michael McCaul (R-TX-10) become more Democratic and could become competitive, but likely in elections beyond 2012 as demographics continue to evolve. If Canseco wins, a distinct possibility next year as the national elections will undoubtedly favor the Republicans in Texas, the delegation count will be 24R-12D, a gain of three Democratic seats, while the GOP increases one. If the Democrats successfully unseat the freshman Canseco, the split will likely result in a net gain of four Democratic seats.

Utah

The Beehive State also gains an additional district from reapportionment and the Republicans have a chance of sweeping the state. The new map could yield a 4R-0D result, but Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT-2) has proven he can survive in strongly Republican districts. If he decides to run for governor, however, a GOP sweep becomes much more realistic. Reps. Rob Bishop (R-UT-1) and Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) get safe seats. Districts 2 and 4 should also elect Republican candidates, but Matheson’s presence in one of those seats could change such an outcome. Expect at least a 3R-1D split for a minimum gain of one Republican seat; two, if they can finally defeat Matheson or he vacates to run statewide. At this point, the congressman has ruled out a challenge to Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), but has not closed the door to opposing Gov. Gary Herbert (R).

West Virginia

The legislative process produced a no-change map that basically keeps the current seats intact. The 1st District is still marginal, so expect freshman Rep. David McKinley (R) to have major competition in his re-election battle. The voter history patterns still suggest a Republican victory, however, so it is likely to remain in the toss-up category. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2) retains the basic outline of her seat, which she has made relatively solid for herself despite the region’s Democratic overtones. New District 3 remains safe for Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV-3). The 1st District campaign will decide if the state breaks 2R-1D or 2D-1R.

Wisconsin

Republicans control the process here, too, and drew a map that locks in their 5R-3D majority, possibly for the entire decade. Realistically, this is the best the GOP can do in the Badger State. Expect all incumbents to retain their seats. Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI-2) is vacating her Madison-anchored seat to run for the Senate, but her replacement will be determined in the Democratic primary. Rep. Ron Kind’s (D) 3rd District becomes more Democratic so as to produce a more Republican seat for freshman Rep. Sean Duffy (R-WI-7). The adjoining districts traded segments of voters to strengthen each for the respective incumbents. This is particularly important for Duffy as he is the first Republican to represent northwest Wisconsin in more than 40 years.

Utah’s Chaffetz Won’t Run

Ending months of speculation, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) held a news conference in Salt Lake City yesterday to announce that he will not challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) for the Republican nomination next year. Though Mr. Chaffetz was polling well against Sen. Hatch, the price of relinquishing a safe House seat at 44 years of age after only two terms in office was more than he wanted to risk.

Conventional political wisdom suggests that Chaffetz could easily garner enough Utah Republican Convention delegates to force a one-on-one primary against Utah’s senior senator, but the statewide election format would likely favor Hatch. Already raising $2.088 million for the new election and having $3.428 million in his campaign account, the senator would clearly dominate the political resource game. Chaffetz, by contrast, only raised $235,000 during the first six months of 2011, and had $227,000 cash-on-hand. For his 2010 congressional re-election campaign, Chaffetz raised only $647,194, but he was virtually unopposed for re-election. When he ousted six-term Rep. Chris Cannon (R-UT-3) in 2008, he attracted only $443,396, and was out-spent 2:1. In that race, it was Chaffetz’s superior grassroots effort that swept him to victory over a veteran incumbent. In a statewide race, particularly against an incumbent who is running hard, such an approach is much more difficult.

Now that Jason Chaffetz won’t be in the Senate race, Orrin Hatch’s road to re-election has become much smoother.
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Senate Primary Challenges Getting Serious

Two states where veteran Senators are virtually assured of facing serious GOP primary challengers are Indiana and Utah, and news was made in both places over the weekend. Both incumbent sentaors Richard Lugar (IN) and Orrin Hatch (UT) were elected in 1976 and are each seeking a seventh six-year term.

The Lugar camp just released its own internal survey of the Indiana Republican electorate, in response to the Club for Growth’s late July poll that posted challenger Richard Mourdock, Indiana’s state treasurer, to a 34-32 percent lead. Lugar’s own data gives him a double-digit lead, but the 45-31 percent spread still suggests trouble for the long time incumbent. Failure to exceed 50 percent amongst one’s own political base is a warning sign for any office holder. Lugar’s American Viewpoint poll was taken during the same time as the Club for Growth survey, but was only now released publicly.

In Utah, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3), long talked about as a challenger to Sen. Hatch, said this weekend that he was moving from “maybe” to “probably” in terms of making the challenge. He says he will finally decide after Labor Day. Both Hatch and Chaffetz must first obtain at least 40 percent of the Utah Republican Convention’s nominating ballots just to secure one of the two primary ballot positions. If a candidate reaches 60 percent of the convention vote, such person is officially nominated and there is no primary election. It is unlikely that either Hatch or Chaffetz can reach the nominating plateau. Hatch will have a huge resource advantage for the June primary — the Senator possesses $3.43 million in his campaign account compared to Chaffetz’s $227,145.
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Poll Shows Utah’s Hatch Teetering

Public Policy Polling (July 8-10; 732 registered Utah voters) just confirmed the results of another Beehive State poll conducted last month. Both sets of data show six-term Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) facing serious re-election competition for the first time since originally winning his seat back in 1976. In fact, the new PPP data actually shows Hatch trailing Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT-2) by a single point in a hypothetical general election showdown, 44-45 percent.

It was perceived that the senator’s toughest battle would come in the Republican nominating convention should Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) launch an intra-party challenge against him. Earlier polling predicted that Hatch would cruise to the nomination and re-election if he at least secured second ballot position at the convention. Now, the new polls suggest that every phase of his re-election battle is tight.

Neither Matheson nor Chaffetz has said definitively that they will run for the Senate. Matheson, the lone Democratic federal office holder in this most Republican of states, says he will be on the Utah ballot in 2012, but he is not sure for what office. He could certainly seek re-election, though the GOP map drawers will undoubtedly make his already strongly conservative district even more Republican. He confirms considering running for Senate, while also not ruling out challenging GOP Gov. Gary Herbert. Chaffetz, too, is undecided about whether to run. Unlike Matheson, he likely will receive a safe seat in redistricting, meaning the two-term congressman’s political risk might be greater than his Democratic colleague. A Matheson-Chaffetz race was also tested and the Democrat led that pairing by an even greater 47-42 percent margin. The 2012 Utah Senate race must now be considered officially competitive.
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Rep. Chaffetz Moving Closer to Utah Senate Run

It appears virtually certain that Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) will challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) for the Republican Senate nomination next year and officially announce his campaign after Labor Day. Chaffetz has been considering the race for months. It will be the second time that he attempts to unseat a Republican incumbent. In 2008, he defeated six-term Rep. Chris Cannon (R-UT-3) to obtain the congressional district he currently represents.

The key to the race, as it was for Sen. Mike Lee when he defeated then-Sen. Bob Bennett during the 2010 GOP nominating process, is the state Republican convention. Utah is one of the few states where party convention voting can actually determine a nomination. If a candidate receives 60 percent of the delegate vote, then that candidate is officially nominated. Primaries can occur if two candidates, and only two, fall between 40 and 59 percent of convention balloting. Should that happen, then the two qualifying candidates move to the actual primary election.

The state convention delegates, who number approximately 3,500, are chosen at local county caucuses. It was at this level of the process where Sen. Bennett actually met his demise. Statistics show that an average of 30,000 people historically attend the local caucuses. In 2010, largely motivated by the anti-Bennett and Tea Party movement, more than 75,000 people participated. Once these county voters chose their state delegate slates, Bennett’s fate was sealed. He ended his career failing to even qualify for the primary ballot.

Sen. Hatch may be in a different position, mostly because he is learning from Bennett’s experience. He will have his own operation to turn out supporters for the county caucus meetings with the strategy of obtaining enough votes to force a primary. It is already clear that Chaffetz has the inside track to placing first at the state convention, but it is always difficult to obtain 60 percent in any voting universe. Hatch merely must reach 40 percent, which is a reasonable goal. Early polling suggests that the senator still enjoys strength in a primary voting situation, and he certainly is the superior fundraiser. Therefore, if Chaffetz is to wrest the nomination away from Hatch, he will almost certainly do so at the convention.
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New Poll in Utah Reveals Hatch Vulnerability; Accuracy Questionable

A new Deseret News-KSL television poll indicates that Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) might have renomination problems if Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT-3) challenges him next year, but the poll has significant methodological flaws.

A survey of 496 Utah residents by Dan Jones & Associates over February 8-10 shows the six-term senator leading the second-term congressman 44-34%, but these results are virtually meaningless. The poll’s sampling universe, aside from being statistically small, is simply of Utah “residents,” not even qualifying them as registered voters. A subset of the self-identified Republicans gives Hatch a 51-35% margin over Chaffetz, which is somewhat more significant. Whittling down further to those who call themselves “very conservative” yields the same numerical result (51-35%) but inverted in Chaffetz’s favor. The number of people questioned in the final subset is not stated but must be quite small, again bringing the reliability factor into question.

Chaffetz has not committed to entering the Senate race, but doesn’t yet rule out an intra-primary challenge to the state’s senior senator, who was originally elected in 1976. Hatch has not made a formal re-election announcement, but gives every indication he will seek another term. To underscore his preparation, GOP state chairman Dave Hansen, fresh from a hugely positive 2010 election result, resigned his position last month in order to prepare a re-election effort for the senator. Hansen was Hatch’s manager for the 2006 campaign.

The big test for Sen. Hatch, as it was for ex-Sen. Bob Bennett who failed, will be surviving the 2012 Republican state convention. Utah election procedure still gives the party convention nominating powers, thus it is a hugely important event. Under the party rules, if a candidate receives 60% of the convention vote, the individual is automatically nominated. If no one achieves that number, as was the case last year, then the top two finishers face the full GOP electorate in a full-fledged primary.

As Sen. Hatch knows, the state convention will not be won by polls or television ads. When dealing with insider politics, personalities play a big role as does ideological purity. The Utah Tea Party organizations showed up in force in the 2010 caucuses and elected delegates who would oppose Bennett. Could such a ploy happen again? Possibly, since Hatch also voted for the various financial bail-out bills that fired up the Utah activists. He is doing everything in his power to neutralize their past opposition, however, working fervently to avoid his former colleague’s fate.

Should Hatch be forced into a primary against Chaffetz, or another credible GOP challenger, he will be regarded as a heavy favorite because so many more people will participate in voting. The general election, considering Utah’s strong Republican history particularly in presidential years, should be a breeze for him. The larger the electorate, the better the senator will perform because of name familiarity, campaign resources, and Utah voter history.

Though the Dan Jones news media poll must be regarded as unreliable, the fact that Hatch places behind Chaffetz among those self-describing themselves as “very conservative” still must be of concern to the senator and his supporters. It is this very wing of the party that ousted Bennett in 2010, and are at least considering running a similar effort against Hatch next year.
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