Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Karen Handel’

New Outlook in Georgia Senate Race

In Election Analysis, Senate on May 22, 2014 at 9:57 am

Tuesday’s Georgia primary produced a Republican Senate run-off election that will take us well into summer, and the county vote delineation is providing an early clue as to who will prevail on July 22.

First-place finisher David Perdue, the former Dollar General CEO, is in the far superior position as the run-off begins based upon his performance in the state’s most populous areas. Though the second-place qualifier, Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1), recorded impressive vote totals in Georgia’s southern sector, the counties and regions he carried have far fewer GOP voters than those in the northern section of the state, particularly in and around the Atlanta metropolitan area. Kingston came within one county of sweeping southern Georgia. Only Grady County, on the Georgia-Florida border with just 1,885 total votes cast, eschewed Kingston in favor of Perdue.

In the key Atlanta area counties themselves, neither Purdue nor Kingston won. In Fulton, Gwinnett, and Forsyth Counties, it was former Secretary of State Karen Handel who placed first. Perdue was second in each of the three entities, with Rep. Kingston a distant third.
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Results and Reverberations from the Biggest Night of the Primary Season

In Governor, House, Senate on May 21, 2014 at 12:19 pm

The biggest night of the primary election season to date unfolded last night, and the marquee race featured the quintet of Republican candidates vying for the open Georgia Senate nomination. In the end, with all five individuals at least maintaining a slight chance to advance to the July 22 run-off as the voting day began, is now coming down to a two-way contest between businessman David Perdue (who registered 30 percent) and Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1), who nipped former Secretary of State Karen Handel, 26-22 percent. Representatives Phil Gingrey (R-GA-11) and Paul Broun (R-GA-10) registered only 10 percent apiece. The secondary election winner will face the now-official Democratic nominee, Michelle Nunn, who captured her primary with 75 percent of the vote.

The plethora of pre-election political polls accurately forecast the final order, with the Kingston and Handel pulling away and Perdue finishing first. Rep. Kingston took  Continue reading >

Fallout from Perdue’s “Get Revenue Growing” Comments in the Georgia Senate Race?

In Senate on May 16, 2014 at 11:29 am

With the Georgia Republican Senate primary almost upon us, businessman David Perdue (R) has committed an unforced error. With all polls projecting him advancing to the second round of voting from this Tuesday’s primary, Perdue told a Macon Telegraph editorial board that he would consider increasing revenue as part of the solution to America’s budget problems.

With the five major Republican candidates streaming as far to the right as possible, his statements will be much discussed in the final days of the primary but might not be fully vetted – or absorbed – until the run-off campaign begins.

When asked whether the answer to the budget deficit should be solved by cutting spending or raising revenue, he answered, “both”. According to the Daily Kos Elections blog, Perdue then said, “… here’s the reality: If you go into a business – and I keep coming back to my background, it’s how I know how to relate is to refer back to it – I was never able to turn around a company just by cutting spending. You had to figure out a way to get revenue growing. And what I just said, there are five people in the U.S. Senate who understand what I just said. You  Continue reading >

Senate Races: Nebraska Race Changes Focus, Handel Closing in Georgia

In Polling, Senate on May 9, 2014 at 2:14 pm

Nebraska Race Changes Focus

Often times in a multi-candidate primary field when two candidates isolate each other and begin firing and returning charges, a third contender comes unscathed from the outside to claim the nomination.

In the Nebraska Senate race, non-connected conservative organizations have been targeting the early front-runner, former  Continue reading >

The Georgia Five Jockey for Position in Senate Race

In Polling, Senate on May 2, 2014 at 10:39 am

The open Georgia Senate race continues to be one of the most intriguing campaigns in the nation. While legacy contender Michelle Nunn – the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D) – is the consensus Democratic candidate, the Republican nomination is far from settled but clear trends are developing.

Two polls were just released. The first, from the conservative Insider Advantage research firm (April 27-29; 737 Georgia Republican primary voters) gives former Dollar General CEO David Perdue, the cousin of former Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), a slight lead with 22 percent support among the polling respondents. Climbing to second place is former Secretary of State Karen Handel, who notches 21 percent. Savannah Rep. Jack Kingston is third with 17 percent, Athens Rep. Paul Broun fourth at 14 percent and Marietta Rep. Phil Gingrey drops to the bottom but still posts a competitive 12 percent.

Upon seeing these numbers, Rep. Kingston countered by publicizing his own McLaughlin & Associates poll taken within the same time period as Insider Advantage’s but with a smaller sample size (April 28-29; 400 Georgia Republican primary voters).  Continue reading >

Clarity in Georgia, North Carolina Senate Races?

In Polling, Senate on April 30, 2014 at 10:41 am

Two of the more important Senate races in this 2014 election cycle are occurring in Georgia and North Carolina. Both states are in play for the general election; each party holds one of the two seats, both are major targets, and crowded Republican primaries in the pair of places will soon be clarified.

If several new polls are accurate, certain candidates may be breaking away from their respective packs as we approach the May 6 North Carolina primary and the May 20 vote in Georgia. If a candidate exceeds 40 percent of the NC vote, that person is nominated. In the Peach State, it takes the traditional 50 percent plus one vote to claim the nomination outright.

Georgia Primary: May 20 – Run-off, July 22

This is one of two Republican seats, Kentucky (Mitch McConnell) being the other, where Democrats are competitive. The Republican primary features five accomplished candidates, all of whom can construct a reasonable path to victory. A run-off is a virtual certainty here, but many scenarios exist about which two Republicans  Continue reading >

Georgia Senate Race Ramping Up

In Senate on April 4, 2014 at 12:09 pm

The important open Georgia Senate race is starting to hit its stride. With Sarah Palin landing here to endorse one candidate, a new poll placing the businessman candidate in the lead, a Democrat ad released touting the candidate’s association with a Republican president, and a Republican spot sporting a mediocre impersonator of a Democratic president, the activity level is clearly revving up.

Former Republican vice presidential nominee and Alaska governor, Sarah Palin, came to the Atlanta area for a series of events in support of former Secretary of State Karen Handel, the only female in the Republican primary. Handel is no stranger  Continue reading >

New Senate Numbers in Ga., Ky.

In Polling, Senate on January 30, 2014 at 10:25 am

Georgia

It’s been several months since a public poll has been released for the important open seat Senate race in Georgia, and this new Public Policy Polling survey portends that at least the tested candidates remain closely bunched together.

The poll (Jan. 24-26; 640 registered Georgia voters), conducted for the Americans United for Change liberal organization, gives consensus Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn a slight lead over the selected Republican contenders.

The margin of difference between the individual candidates and Nunn is similar to what PPP found in their August 2013 survey, except in reverse. In the August poll, Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA-10) was the one candidate who polled outside the margin of error against Nunn, trailing her 36-41 percent. In this study, however, Broun actually does the best of the GOP group, trailing her by only one point, 41-42 percent.
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Senate $$$ Snap Shot

In Senate on October 24, 2013 at 11:03 am

Since Senate candidates still file their financial disclosure reports on paper, the numbers always take a longer time to publish. Thanks to the Roll Call newspaper staff who tracked down the key, but unofficial, monetary figures, we have an early picture of the third quarter fundraising.

Alaska

As we know, Republicans need to convert six Democratic seats to wrest the majority away from the controlling party. One of their key targets is Alaska, where first-term Sen. Mark Begich (D) is on the ballot next year. With Sarah Palin continuing to lurk in the background as a long-shot potential candidate, Republican Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell needs to show campaign strength. Though he is polling within low single digits of Sen. Begich, his financial take is underwhelming. According to the Roll Call report, Treadwell raised only $196,000 for the quarter and has just $155,000 cash-on-hand. This compares unfavorably with Sen. Begich, who banked $813,000 and commands more than $2.433 million in his campaign account.

Arkansas

One Republican challenger who had a strong dollar-producing quarter after officially announcing his senatorial campaign, is Arkansas Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) who is challenging two-term Sen. Mark Pryor (D). Cotton attracted $1.073 million for the quarter, just ahead of Sen. Pryor’s $1.068 million. But, the senator has a huge cash-on-hand advantage, $4.419 million to $1.806 million.

Iowa

An open seat race where Republicans are very slow to initiate their campaigns is in Iowa. The consensus Democrat candidate, Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA-1) topped $900,000 in receipts for the quarter and holds $2.323 million in his campaign account. State Sen. Joni Ernst led the Republicans, bringing in $252,000, and has $224,000 in the bank. David Young, the former chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and is expected to be one of the stronger candidates, only attracted $112,000 for the  Continue reading >

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