New Wisconsin Poll Shows Growing Support for Walker

The brand new Public Policy Polling survey (April 13-15; 1,136 registered Wisconsin voters via automated interviews) reveals that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is gaining strength in his June 5 recall election battle. According to the data, Walker would defeat his strongest Democratic opponent, Milwaukee mayor and former congressman Tom Barrett, the man he defeated in 2010, by a 50-45 percent count. Walker leads former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk by seven points, Secretary of State Doug La Follette by nine, and posts a 12-point margin over state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout. Walker scores either 50 or 51 percent in all scenarios.

One certainly can question the methodology of this poll since it employed automated calls over a weekend, and the Republican split can be considered high. For this particular poll, 32 percent of respondents identified themselves as Republicans, 31 percent Democratic, and 37 percent Independent. Since Wisconsin voters do not register by political party, it is difficult to ascertain the actual partisan division, but Wisconsin’s political history suggests that the Democratic number should be higher.

Perhaps the poll’s most telling statistic is Walker’s support among union households. In all configurations, the governor receives between 31 and 33 percent support, a rather surprising number since it is union issues that are driving the recall. This finding could be detecting the growing split between private and public sector union members. The Wisconsin controversy has confined itself to the public sector labor issues.

The recall campaign will act as a major springboard onto the Wisconsin general election and, quite possibly, the national contest as well.

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“Badgering” the Wisconsin Voter

Tuesday’s Badger State primary took center stage in the GOP presidential nomination contest this week, but voters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s biggest city, were asked to do something slightly unusual that day – vote for a candidate who already had announced that he will run for another office.

Milwaukee mayor and former congressman Tom Barrett (D) was re-elected to a third term as the city’s mayor, but apparently isn’t planning to serve in that capacity for very long. On Friday of last week, he announced that he had also decided to become a candidate for the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination in the primary election to be held in a little over a month, on May 8, for the right to face Gov. Scott Walker in a recall election that is sure to carry national implications.

Barrett will have to ramp up a statewide campaign quickly in the primary battle against former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, Secretary of State Doug LaFollette, and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout for the right to take on Walker in the June 5 recall election. Also being conducted are recall elections against Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and three state senators. A fourth legislative office under recall will see a special election after incumbent Sen. Pam Galloway (R) announced her resignation in early March.

For the past few weeks Barrett had been coy, but dropped several hints that he was interested in a possible third run for governor even as he was campaigning for another term as Milwaukee’s mayor. Barrett lost the 2010 gubernatorial election to Walker by a 52 percent – 47 percent margin. He and Falk also previously lost a Democratic gubernatorial nomination, in 2002 to then-Attorney General Jim Doyle, who went on to serve as governor until Walker’s election in 2010.

Mr. Barrett has had a testy relationship with public employee unions, particularly those representing teachers, in Milwaukee. In fact, some union leaders had urged him to stay out of the race to clear the way for Falk and avoid a contentious Democratic primary with only one month to put together a general election campaign against Walker.

Counting the presidential primary, the regular primary, the recall, and the general election, Wisconsin voters are being asked to go to the polls at least five times between April and November all in significant contests that will affect more than just their own state’s politics. No wonder many in Wisconsin feel so “badgered” by politics.