Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Lee Bright’

The Vote: Potential Aftermath

In Election Analysis on September 30, 2013 at 11:21 am
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)

The Ted Cruz (R-TX) informal Obamacare funding filibuster is predicted to inflict political harm, but there is a myriad of opinion as to who will suffer the most severe consequences for their respective votes at the polling place, if anyone.

Below are the names of the 18 Republican senators who supported Cruz by voting “No” on the continuing resolution cloture petition last Friday, and when they next face the voters:

    Senators voting NO (alphabetical by state):

  • Jeff Sessions (R-AL), 2014
  • Richard Shelby (R-AL), 2016
  • Marco Rubio (R-FL), 2016
  • Mike Crapo (R-ID), 2016
  • Jim Risch (R-ID), 2014
  • Chuck Grassley (R-IA), 2016
  • Pat Roberts (R-KS), 2014
  • Jerry Moran (R-KS), 2016
  • Rand Paul (R-KY), 2016
  • David Vitter (R-LA), 2016
  • Deb Fischer (R-NE), 2018
  • Dean Heller (R-NV), 2018
  • Rob Portman (R-OH), 2016
  • Jim Inhofe (R-OK), 2014
  • Pat Toomey (R-PA), 2016
  • Tim Scott (R-SC), 2014
  • Mike Lee (R-UT), 2016
  • Mike Enzi (R-WY), 2014
  •  
    Not Voting:

  • Jeff Flake (R-AZ), 2018
  • Orrin Hatch (R-UT), 2018
  • It’s possible, however, that certain Republican senators voting “Aye” and standing for election next year are in the more vulnerable position. The senators facing primary opposition include Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), himself. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is the other  Continue reading >

    Graham Below 50%; NYC Mayoral Update

    In Mayor, Polling, Senate on September 12, 2013 at 10:25 am
    Sen. Lindsey Graham

    Sen. Lindsey Graham

    A new poll shows South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) dropping below majority support in his battle for renomination in next year’s Republican senatorial primary. Graham, running for a third six-year term, is opposed by three Republicans, only one of whom has been elected to any office. The poll, however, possesses a significant methodological flaw, which could cast doubt upon the results.

    The survey, from Landmark Communications and Rosetta Stone Communications (Aug. 25; 500 South Carolina Republican voters; released Sept. 5) posts Sen. Graham to a 42-13-10-7 percent lead over state Sen. Lee Bright, businesswoman Nancy Mace – the first female graduate from The Citadel – and businessman and former 3rd Congressional District candidate Richard Cash, respectively.

    While Graham clearly has a large cumulative lead over his opponents, this study projects him far away from reaching the 50 percent mark necessary for clinching the party nomination without a run-off election.

    Under South Carolina law, such run-off elections are generally held only two weeks after the primary vote. Considering that the 2010 federal MOVE Act requires a 45-day period for military and overseas voters to receive and return their ballots, it is conceivable that a court could force the state to schedule a longer time between elections, just as judges in at least New York, Texas, and Georgia have done. Should the run-off be rescheduled to create a longer election cycle, the conventional wisdom is such a change may help a potential Graham head-to-head challenger because the individual will have some time to raise the  Continue reading >

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