What Boxer’s Retirement Means; An “SEC” Primary?

At the end of 2014, California Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) provided strong hints that she would not seek a fifth term in 2016. Yesterday, she made that decision official. In a video hosted by her grandson, Sen. Boxer announced that she will not be a candidate for the Senate next year, thus ending what will be a 34-year-career in Congress.

The succeeding election now marks the first time since Boxer originally won in 1992 that California will host an open US Senate campaign. A plethora of Democrats are expected to enter the statewide fray. The most interesting dynamic will be the interplay between political allies Gavin Newsom, the state’s lieutenant governor, and California Attorney General Kamala Harris. It would be surprising to see the two close colleagues challenge each other, but stranger things have happened in politics. It is also possible that neither will run. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is apparently not giving serious consideration to the Senate race. One potential major contender who is seriously looking at becoming a candidate is former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Another mayor drawing attention is Sacramento’s Kevin Johnson, a former NBA professional basketball player.

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Upset City in California’s 36th CD

The late west coast special congressional election ended surprisingly last night. While it appeared that California’s new election law allowing the top two finishers to advance to the general election, regardless of political party, would favor the local Democrats in Rep. Jane Harman’s (D) vacated seat, it didn’t, as Secretary of State Debra Bowen was nipped for second place by conservative businessman Craig Huey. The Republican will move onto the July 12 special general election against first-place finisher Janice Hahn (D), a Los Angeles City Council member.

In all, 16 candidates were on the ballot. Below is the order of finish for the top vote-getters:

Janice Hahn (D) …………. 13,137 ……….. 24.7%
Craig Huey (R) ………….. 11,648 ………… 21.9%

Debra Bowen (D) ……….. 11,442 ……….. 21.5%
Marcy Winograd (D) …….. 5,066 ……….. 9.5%
Mike Gin (R) ……………….. 4,145 …………. 7.8%

It was assumed that Bowen, the Secretary of State and former state senator and assembly member from the Los Angeles harbor area would battle Hahn in the general election. Though Huey snatched second place, the district did perform as one would expect from a partisan context. The Democratic candidates received a cumulative 56.7 percent, while the Republicans garnered an aggregate 40.9 percent. Total turnout was a very low 53,266, for a TO percentage of 15.3 percent.

Hahn becomes a big favorite for the special general election, and then we’ll see what happens to the region in redistricting.

California Numbers: Big Shifts Mean Many Questions

The US Census Bureau released the California population numbers, and those predicting that the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County would reveal significant population downturns were correct. In all, only 20 Golden State districts are over-populated compared with 33 that must gain inhabitants. Of the seats falling behind the population growth rate, 27 are held by Democratic members and six by Republicans. Of the over-populated states, 13 are Republican-controlled while seven Democratic seats must shed inhabitants.

The two most over-populated seats are in the Inland Empire, where Rep. Mary Bono Mack’s 45th district and Ken Calvert’s 44th CD have 211,304 more people than required and 141,851, respectively. Rep. Buck McKeon’s 25th district, also partially in the Inland Empire, is next with an overage of 141,415 individuals.

The overwhelming growth pattern occurred among Hispanics. Despite California gaining almost 3.4 million residents, the state did not add congressional representation for the first time in its history. Though Hispanic growth exploded during the decade, increasing by 27.8%, the non-Hispanic population grew at a paltry 1.5%, for a statewide gain of 10%. This is right at the national average of 9.7% and explaining why the state remains constant with 53 districts. The California Anglo population is now only a slight plurality. Whites account for just 40.1% of the population with Hispanics right behind at 37.8%. Huge growth was also recorded within the California Asian population. They now register a total of 13%, up from 11% in 2000. African-Americans remained constant at 6% of the Golden State population make-up.

It is clear that Californians are moving away from the coastal cities and into the inland regions of the state. Ten Bay Area congressional districts (including the Monterey Peninsula) must gain people while only two are over-populated, and those share territory with communities in the central part of the state. In the Central Valley (Modesto, Fresno, Madera, Merced, Bakersfield), all five seats are over-populated. This means there will be a shift in representation from the Bay Area toward the Central Valley. In what configuration the new California Redistricting Commission decides to draw the seats, however, is anyone’s guess at this point in time. It’s a sure thing that at least one Bay Area representative will have to add substantial new territory from an area far different from his or her current constituency. This could lead to some interesting primary and general elections in 2012.

The same pattern holds true for southern California.

Because of California’s dramatic population shifts and the emergence of the new redistricting commission, the Golden State is truly a redistricting wild card. Much will happen here in the coming months.
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California Candidates Already Vying to Replace Harman

The new House of Representatives is about to have its first vacancy as Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA-36) will soon resign her seat in Congress to become the director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, succeeding former House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Lee Hamilton (D-IN-9). Harman originally was elected to Congress in 1992 and left six years later, relinquishing her seat to mount an unsuccessful campaign for governor of California. She returned to the House in 2000, defeating then-Rep. Steve Kuykendall (R), and was easily re-elected another five times.

Already Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn (D) is saying she will run in the special election. Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D), who was a state legislator from this part of California before winning her current post in 2006, is also reported to have interest in the off-year congressional race.

The 36th district is heavily Democratic and fully contained within Los Angeles County. The communities of Torrance, Redondo Beach and Manhattan Beach together provide the population anchor for the seat. Pres. Obama scored 64% of the vote here in 2008. Former Pres. George W. Bush could do no better than 40 and 39% in his two elections, 2004 and 2000, in respective chronological order.

The eventual CA-36 special election will also be the first such campaign under California’s new primary law. As adopted by the voters in 2010, if no one receives 50% plus one vote, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will qualify for the general election. Gov. Jerry Brown (D) must call the special election between 112 and 126 days from the date of vacancy.
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For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.