State Presidential Polling Tightens

Photo: The White House

Polling in the presidential race is interesting because the national numbers have been projecting a very tight race, but not particularly so for the key states. Several surveys released yesterday now show a pattern similar to the tight nationwide margins in the core states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia, and second-tier swing state, Colorado.

Nationally, Gallup, Marist College for the McClatchy Newspapers, and the Purple Strategies organizations all give President Obama a two-point lead over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney. But, Rasmussen Reports projects Mr. Romney to be holding the same two-point lead. All of the polls were conducted during the July 9-15 period, though the Rasmussen data is derived from daily tracking surveys.

While the president’s numbers in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado have exceeded his national performance, such is not the case in the latest wave of studies.

In all-important Florida, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research gives Obama only a one-point, 46-45 percent razor-thin edge, but Purple Strategies (PS) actually detects a three-point Romney lead, 48-45 percent.

Ohio, where the president’s margins have typically been in the high single digits, now brandishes only a three-point Obama lead, 48-45 percent, again according to Purple Strategies.

To the west in Colorado, a state that Obama carried 54-45% in 2008, PS sees the president’s advantage dwindling to just one point, 45-44 percent.

Finally, in Virginia, where the Obama edge has been consistent and relatively strong, Purple Strategies forecasts that his Old Dominion lead is now down to just two points, 46-44 percent.

Advertisement

Warning Signs in Va., N.D.

Two GOP Senate candidates who are probably re-assessing their respective post-primary campaign strategies are former Virginia senator George Allen and North Dakota Rep. Rick Berg (R-AL). Both easily won their nomination elections on Tuesday night, but even their individual landslide victory margins are arguably under-performances. Both men finished with 66 percent of the vote on June 12, but for two consensus party candidates, their base support number should have been higher. A better position from which to launch each general election campaign would have been in the 75th percentile.

Allen faces former governor Tim Kaine (D) in the Old Dominion, and the race has been in the toss-up category since the middle of 2011 and continues to languish with neither candidate showing any signs of breaking out. The Republican primary vote tells us that Allen still needs to tack right to completely firm up his GOP base for what promises to be a bruising general election in a presidential battleground state.

Rep. Berg, whose North Dakota electorate will likely support Mitt Romney over President Obama by a substantial margin, also needs to cement his political base to the maximum level in order to take advantage of what should be a regional GOP tide.

Berg’s 66 percent of the vote in his battle against frequent candidate Duane Sand also warrants attention, because in addition to the primary result, we now see a third general election poll that projects him to be trailing former attorney general Heidi Heitkamp. The latest survey, (Mason-Dixon Polling & Research; June 4-6; 625 registered North Dakota voters) gives the new official Democratic nominee a one point, 47-46 percent, razor-thin November edge. Additionally, the primary prediction done by Mason-Dixon actually placed Berg further ahead of where he finished on Tuesday. The poll showed him beating Sand 73-16 percent, but the actual result was 66-34 percent.

Warning signs, indeed.

Florida’s Sen. Nelson Teeters on the Vulnerability Scale

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, for the Ron Sachs Communications company, just completed a new survey of Floridians (Feb. 9-10; 625 registered Florida voters) revealing noteworthy vulnerability in Sen. Bill Nelson’s (D) re-election prospects. According to the data, one Republican would defeat the two-term senator 49-41% right now, but he is highly unlikely to run. That individual is former Gov. Jeb Bush (R), who already has said he has no plans to seek public office in the near future.

Isolating Sen. Nelson with potential opponents more likely to get into the race shows him leading, but by unimpressive margins when the opponent possesses high name identification. Against Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-14), who has not made a decision to run statewide but enjoys strong familiarity with Florida voters because of his father’s previous high-profile congressional service, the senator’s edge is only 45-40%.

Paired with former interim Sen. George LeMieux, who originally indicated a preference to run but is now hedging his bets, Nelson’s advantage expands to double-digits, 49-35%. When matched with state Senate Pres. Mike Haridopolos, who is officially running and having strong early fundraising success, the situation changes as Nelson soars to a much more comfortable 48-27% spread. Finally, if former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner were his opponent, the senator’s margin becomes 46-24%.

The 2012 Florida Senate race must be considered a top-tier, highly competitive campaign.
__________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.