Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘MassINC’

Massachusetts Senate Polls Show Tight Race

In Polling, Senate on May 10, 2013 at 10:45 am

On the heels of Public Policy Polling surveying the Massachusetts Senate special general election that showed Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) holding only a slim four-point, 44-40 percent, lead over private equity investor and former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez (R), MassINC and Suffolk University quickly released their data.

Though neither show the race as close as PPP, the MassINC poll lands in the same range as Public Policy Polling, while Suffolk gives Markey a double-digit lead. Over the course of the past two elections, PPP has proven to be the more reliable pollster than either of these other survey research entities, however.

The MassINC poll (May 5-6; 497 registered Massachusetts voters) conducted for WBUR-TV, the Boston region’s PBS affiliate, gives Markey only a 41-35 percent lead among those who stated a defined choice. When “leaners” are added, the Markey advantage increases to 46-38 percent.

Regionally, Gomez claims a big 47-28 percent (51-31 percent adding leaners) advantage in the western and central part of the state. Markey is up 41-40 percent in the area defined as the “outer suburbs,” the region beginning at the northeastern corner of the state on the New Hampshire border and swinging around the western end of Boston before wrapping its way back to the Atlantic Ocean south of the city. But, that slight edge is countered by a one-point 35-34 percent Gomez lead in the southeast, the territory including the cities of Brockton and Fall River, and then continuing all through the hook-shaped Cape Cod peninsula. Markey has a commanding 59-20 percent split in Boston and the city’s inner suburbs.

The Suffolk University poll (May 4-7; 500 likely Massachusetts voters) produces a much different result, forecasting Markey to have a substantial 52-35 percent advantage. The 17-point gap between the two is obviously far greater than PPP’s four-point margin and WBUR’s six-point spread.

According to MassINC’s Steve Koczela,  Continue reading >

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NPR Poll: Lynch Now Close in Mass.

In Senate on February 18, 2013 at 1:06 pm

Rep. Lynch | Rep. Markey

The MassINC Polling Group (Feb. 11-13; 498 registered Massachusetts voters) surveying for WBUR Public Radio in Boston, the New England region’s largest NPR affiliate, reveals a major tightening of the special US Senate Democratic primary contest between Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) and Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5).

Contrasting with a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 29-30 of 404 registered Massachusetts Democratic voters that showed Markey crushing Lynch 52-19 percent, the new MassINC study projects the Boston congressman pulling to within just seven points of the front-runner, trailing only 31-38 percent.

The MassINC poll has some structural flaws, i.e. the Democratic primary sampling universe’s size is not disclosed but must fall within a range of 270 to 304 respondents, most likely around the 284 figure. This is very low for a statewide primary survey, thus making their final conclusions less reliable.

Still, the MassINC findings do seem more plausible than the previous PPP study that staked Markey to a 33-point lead, a spread that seemed excessive so early in the process. Based upon the MassINC results it  Continue reading >

The Latest on the Impending Massachusetts Senate Race

In Governor, Polling, Senate on January 31, 2013 at 11:12 am
William "Mo" Cowan

William “Mo” Cowan

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has appointed his former chief of staff, 43-year-old William “Mo” Cowan, to replace former Sen. John Kerry (D). Kerry resigned his position yesterday upon confirmation as President Obama’s Secretary of State.

Mo Cowan becomes the second African American to join the current Senate, marking the first time that two blacks have served here together since Reconstruction. Ironically, neither is an elected member, as South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) also was recently appointed.

Cowan will serve until the winner of the state’s special election is sworn into office. Since the Massachusetts election certification process is long in duration, it is Continue reading >

Senate Politics Already Hot

In Senate on January 30, 2013 at 10:56 am

Massachusetts

Considering yesterday’s confirmation of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) as Secretary of State, expect Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to name an interim replacement this week. He previously indicated that he intends to appoint a caretaker who will serve only until voters choose a new senator in the June 25 special general election and through the succeeding post-election certification period.

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) is the only announced special election candidate from either political party, but Boston Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) is expected to join the race before week’s end. Democratic Party leaders have worked hard to give Markey an unimpeded march to the nomination, but a Lynch candidacy means that there will be a significant Democratic primary to be decided in an April 30th election.

Little definitive action is yet occurring on the Republican side, but the party’s nominee likely will be either former Sen. Scott Brown, ex-Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, or former state senator and 6th District congressional candidate Richard Tisei. Ex-Gov. Bill Weld is unlikely to enter the contest. Should Brown decide to run he will almost assuredly have an unopposed primary, thus providing him an opportunity to build Continue reading >

Big Developments in the Massachusetts Senate Special Election

In Governor, Polling, Senate on January 29, 2013 at 4:03 pm
Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown

News is occurring rapidly in the replacement special election for Secretary of State-designee John Kerry’s Massachusetts Senate seat.

First, despite Kerry not yet being confirmed, Gov. Deval Patrick and Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin have announced the special election schedule. The party primaries will be held April 30, with the special general vote occurring on June 25. A plurality of the vote wins the respective Democratic and Republican nominations.

Secondly, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) is not denying a Boston Globe report that he will enter the special election soon to challenge Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) in the Democratic primary. The road will be a Continue reading >

News and Notes: Following up Previous Posts

In Governor, House, Polling, Senate on December 21, 2012 at 5:06 pm

McConnell Replies

You may remember last week that Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s campaign manager launched a public attack on the Public Policy Polling survey research firm when they published numbers showing the senator with only a 37:55 percent favorability index. Though the PPP numbers showed his popularity at a low point for any incumbent senator, McConnell still maintained consistent 47-43 percent leads over actress Ashley Judd, Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Jerry Abramson. The latter two have already ruled out a 2014 senatorial run.

Yesterday, the senator’s campaign released their internal Voter/Consumer Research poll taken during the Dec. 10-13 period. Interestingly, though the McConnell team disparaged the PPP results, their own data projects him to be leading Judd by exactly the same 47-43 percent margin. What is vastly different, however, is the Minority Leader’s approval rate among the voters of his home state. While PPP forecast him in hopelessly upside down job approval territory, the Voter/Consumer Research poll posted him to a 51:40 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio.

Obviously, the 2014 Kentucky Senate race will draw a great deal of national attention, Continue reading>

Mass. Senate Race Still Up for Grabs

In Polling, Senate on July 27, 2012 at 1:32 pm

Brown | Warren

The widely watched Massachusetts U.S. Senate race continues to be one of the country’s top campaigns and, as polling released this past week reveals, the contest remains too close to call. It has grown ever tighter over the past four months.

Democratic hopeful Elizabeth Warren is challenging incumbent and first-term Sen. Scott Brown. The Commonwealth, normally considered bedrock blue in a political context, chose Brown in early 2010 during a hard-fought special election campaign after veteran Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) passed away. Brown became a national name after becoming the first elected Republican senator in Massachusetts since 1972.

According to a poll released this past Tuesday from the MassINC research group for WBUR, the Boston National Public Radio station, Warren was shown to be leading with 40 percent support, while Brown registered 38 percent. The study, taken during the July 19-22 period, had a sample size of 503 registered voters. While the survey projects Warren to a two-point advantage, the margin of error factor is 4.4 percent; therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the race remains a dead heat. In June, Public Policy Polling also released a survey putting the two in a virtual tie, with Sen. Brown running well among Independents.

Voters in Massachusetts appear to be warming to both Warren and Brown. This week’s poll reveals that Warren’s favorability rating stands at 47 percent, which is a 13-point jump from the last MassINC poll conducted in April. Brown’s positive index increased, too, reaching 50 percent, which is up from 46 percent as measured three months ago.

One category to watch here is the undecided vote. Historically in Massachusetts, the undecideds tend to move back toward their party’s incumbent as the election draws near. Should the undecided Democrats return to support Barack Obama over Mitt Romney in November, Warren could also benefit. If this current undecided model projection is correct, it will be Warren who has the greater room to grow, mostly because there are so many more Massachusetts Democrats than Republicans.

Sen. Brown is formerly a member of the Massachusetts State House of Representatives (1998-2004), and then the state Senate (2004-2010). He is also a practicing attorney and considered to be a moderate Republican, voting with his party approximately 80 percent of the time. Warren, a Harvard Law School professor, is considered to be an American bankruptcy law expert who provided oversight to the 2008 bailout program and oversaw the establishment of the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau.

Both candidates bring unique qualities to the race and, as polling has consistently indicated over a period of months, this battle appears to be too close to call. It is certainly a race to watch over the next 102 days.

King Leading in Maine Poll

In Polling, Senate on June 19, 2012 at 1:10 pm

A new MassINC Polling Group political survey (June 13-14; 506 likely Maine voters for television station WBUR) gives Independent former governor Angus King a huge 50-23-9 percent lead over newly nominated Republican candidate Charlie Summers and Democrat Cynthia Dill, respectively.

The Maine Senate race could become nation’s most important, because there are two scenarios where King alone would decide if Republicans or Democrats control the majority in the next Congress, should he be elected. To date, the former governor, though a liberal, has not committed to joining either party. Should President Obama be re-elected and Senate Republicans reach 50, King caucusing with either side would make that party the majority. The same would be true if Mitt Romney unseats the President and the Democrats claim 50 seats.

State Sen. Dill has the most difficult path to victory in the three-way scenario. According to the MassINC data, Democrats choose King 60-17 percent over the now-official Democratic nominee. Interestingly, his mark among Democrats is even better than within the Independent sample cell. Of those claiming to affiliate with neither party, King records 57 percent. Though his margin is strong, it is not insurmountable, particularly in a three-way race. Gov. Paul LePage (R) was elected from a similar configuration two years ago with just 37.6 percent of the vote. If the Senate majority truly reverberates on Maine’s outcome, then expect the race to become heated as Election Day nears.