Anything Could Happen at Saturday’s Iowa Convention

Before Tuesday’s important June 24 primary that will decide Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran’s (R) fate among many other candidates in six states, a different nominating event will take place. Tomorrow, Republican convention delegates in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District (Des Moines/Council Bluffs) will meet to choose a US House nominee to succeed retiring Rep. Tom Latham as the party standard bearer. Under state election law, if no candidate receives at least 35 percent of the primary vote a post-election convention is called to choose a nominee. The delegates have no limitations over who they can choose.

In the June 3 primary, a very tight contest was held among six candidates, five of whom placed in double-digits. In first position with 25 percent of the vote, but a full 10 percentage points away from winning the nomination, was former state senator and 2010 congressional nominee Brad Zaun. Businessman Robert Cramer was second at 21 percent, followed by Secretary of State Matt Schultz registering 20 percent, association executive Monte Shaw notching 17 percent, and David Young, the former chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) who was originally in the US Senate race,

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June 3 is Largest Single Day of Primaries

Voters in eight states go to the polls tomorrow, making June 3rd the largest single voting day on the primary election calendar.

Mississippi

We begin our analysis in the south, with the premier race of the day. Mississippi Republican Sen. Thad Cochran fights to win renomination against state Sen. Chris McDaniel in order to continue his long political career. Cochran was originally elected to the Senate in 1978 and became the first modern-day Republican to represent a Deep South state. He won his House seat six years earlier, in fact on the same day that Richard Nixon was re-elected president.

The latest public opinion polls actually showed McDaniel leading the senator, perhaps as a result of a unified front of national conservative organizations falling in line behind the challenger and spending

Young Flips to House in Iowa; Cheney Out in Wyoming

A major development has occurred in the Iowa Senate campaign precipitated by Des Moines Rep. Tom Latham’s (R-IA-3) prior announcement that he would not seek re-election.

David Young, former chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who was viewed as a serious contender for the Republican open seat Senate nomination albeit in a weak field of candidates, has adjusted his political plans. Young has now made public his intention to transfer from the Senate race into Latham’s open 3rd Congressional District.

Young said he originally planned to run for the 3rd District seat when he believed that Rep. Latham would announce for the Senate. When that didn’t happen, Young decided to run statewide.

The former congressional aide also said the potential of the Senate race being forced to a nominating convention makes the task of winning the general election against Rep.

Major House Retirements Announced

Three House members surprisingly announced retirements yesterday, potentially altering the outlook for 2014. Veteran congressmen Jim Matheson (D-UT-4), Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) and Tom Latham (R-IA-3) each will not seek re-election, representing an aggregate total of 68 years of exiting congressional seniority.

At first glance, it appears the eventual Republican nominee will be the prohibitive favorite to convert the solidly conservative 4th Congressional District of Utah, while both the Virginia and Iowa marginal seats will begin in the “toss-up” category. See our analysis below. Along with the vacant FL-13 seat, three more Republican seats will now become competitive and susceptible to Democrat conversion. The party needs 17 seats to claim the House majority and converting these three winnable districts would reduce their net minimum number to just 15.

Senate Questions

Within the last week, no fewer than four major potential senatorial candidates have decided not to run. Three sitting members of the House, representatives John Barrow (D-GA-12), Steve King (R-IA-4), and Tom Price (R-GA-6), and one former congresswoman, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin from South Dakota, each announced that they will be doing something other than running for the United States Senate in 2014. With so many potential candidates content to allow their current opportunity to evaporate, what now is the status of the various Senate races?

Both the Republicans and Democrats have, so far, experienced recruitment failures. Democrats see two seats that they currently hold, Jay Rockefeller’s post in West Virginia and Tim Johnson’s position in South Dakota, going by the wayside. Currently, they have no candidate willing to challenge GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2) in the Mountaineer State, and their two strongest South Dakota potential contenders have taken a pass. While they do have a former aide to Sen. Tom Daschle (Rick Weiland) now in the race, it is apparent that he is no match for Republican former Gov. Mike Rounds.

Republicans have yet to field a candidate in Iowa where Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring.