How Cantor Lost in Virginia, and What’s Next

The irony of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA-7) losing his primary election last night when several hundred miles to the south Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), long known for his trouble within the Republican base, would defeat a field of six opponents with 56 percent of the vote, must be acknowledged. Even as late as yesterday, most people would not have believed such a predicted outcome. Yet, it happened.

Cantor lost for varying reasons. First, his perceived position of supporting amnesty as part of the immigration issue proved a lightning rod against him within the conservative base.

Second, the majority of his central Virginia Republican electorate clearly believed he is part of the problem in Washington.

Third, the campaign strategy of attacking opponent David Brat as a liberal clearly backfired and was ill-advised. It is unlikely that painting someone who hails from the Tea Party as a “liberal” would carry any credence with a voter who pays attention. Knowing that the turnout would be low – and it was, 65,000-plus GOP voters – a

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The Georgia Five Jockey for Position in Senate Race

The open Georgia Senate race continues to be one of the most intriguing campaigns in the nation. While legacy contender Michelle Nunn – the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D) – is the consensus Democratic candidate, the Republican nomination is far from settled but clear trends are developing.

Two polls were just released. The first, from the conservative Insider Advantage research firm (April 27-29; 737 Georgia Republican primary voters) gives former Dollar General CEO David Perdue, the cousin of former Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), a slight lead with 22 percent support among the polling respondents. Climbing to second place is former Secretary of State Karen Handel, who notches 21 percent. Savannah Rep. Jack Kingston is third with 17 percent, Athens Rep. Paul Broun fourth at 14 percent and Marietta Rep. Phil Gingrey drops to the bottom but still posts a competitive 12 percent.

Upon seeing these numbers, Rep. Kingston countered by publicizing his own McLaughlin & Associates poll taken within the same time period as Insider Advantage’s but with a smaller sample size (April 28-29; 400 Georgia Republican primary voters).

Jolly’s Advantage in Florida

It’s been the stated conventional wisdom that former Florida Chief Financial Officer and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink would sail to a comfortable win in the March 11 special general election to replace the late Rep. Bill Young (R-FL-13). Since the Jan. 14 primary, however, two polls have been released projecting that Republican David Jolly holds a discernible lead.

The first survey, from St. Pete Polls as we reported last week, staked Jolly to a 47-43 percent advantage, but we illustrated that the respondent universe contained an over-sampling of Republicans. In the latest poll, from McLaughlin & Associates (Jan. 16-19; 400 registered FL-13 voters) for the Jolly campaign, the same flaw exists. Largely as a result, the McLaughlin data yields a 43-38% Jolly lead.

The district voter registration is: 37 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 24 percent Independent. The McLaughlin sample pull was comprised of 42 percent Republican voters, 35 percent Democrats, and 16 percent Independents. Therefore, increasing the Republican share by five full

Massachusetts Senate Snapshot

The long-anticipated special US Senate election to replace Secretary of State John Kerry (D) is being held today, and the final three polls all favor Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) to carry the vote over Republican businessman Gabriel Gomez.

Suffolk University (June 19-22; 500 likely Massachusetts voters) projects Markey to a 52-42 percent advantage. New England College (June 18-20; 579 likely voters) gives the congressman an even wider 56-36 percent majority. Finally, the Western New England University Polling Institute (June 16-20; 503 likely Massachusetts voters) shows a much closer 49-41 percent spread.

There has been no poll throughout the entire special election cycle that projected Markey to be trailing. One survey, a Republican study from McLaughlin & Associates, showed the congressman in the lead at one point, but that is as close as challenger Gomez has gotten.

The Suffolk U. and Western New England polls are clearly more reflective of each other, and in line with the vast majority of surveys commissioned during the previous weeks. The New England College poll appears to be skewed in favor of the Democratic nominee.

Though Gomez conducted a spirited campaign, it is not likely that the magic surrounding former Sen. Scott Brown (R) in his 2010 special election victory will reappear in this battle. There is simply no evidence to suggest that this Republican is close enough to score an upset victory.

Despite Rep. Markey being poised to win the race, his percentage might be below that of usual Democratic performance in Massachusetts. In such an open seat special election race, a Bay State Democratic nominee should finish in the high 50s. By most accounts, Markey will likely score in the low to mid-50s.

The winner of today’s election will serve the balance of Kerry’s term and be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2014. If Markey does win, as predicted, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will then schedule a new special election for his 5th Congressional District. Already several candidates are actively campaigning for this post, in anticipation of a Markey win today.

Virginia Lt. Gov. Bolling Still Lingering

Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) still says he’s deciding whether to run as an Independent for governor but a communication to previous political supporters “seeking [their] advice” clearly indicates a preference to join the battle. Bolling was originally planning to challenge Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in the Republican primary but, when the voting format was changed to a statewide convention, it became clear even to Bolling that he had little chance of prevailing.

Upset at being dashed by the Republican brass for a second time (four years ago Bolling stepped aside so that then-Attorney General Bob McDonnell could run for governor, with assurances that he would be next in line come 2013) he started publicly contemplating about running in the general election as a third candidate. He states that he would enter the race as an “Independent Republican” and it is clear to him “… that there is a great deal of uneasiness about the candidates the two major political parties appear poised to nominate, and a lot of people in our state are looking for a better option.”

Bolling also released his internally commissioned McLaughlin & Associates poll (released Feb. 26; 400 registered Virginia voters) that shows an overwhelming number of people would consider voting for an Independent candidate, but one that also projects him to be faring poorly against Cuccinelli and consensus Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe.

According to the McLaughlin data, Bolling enjoys a 44:11 percent favorability index. This compares to Cuccinelli’s 41:27 percent, and McAuliffe’s rather poor 25:22 percent ratio. In his analysis, chief pollster John McLaughlin then points to results saying that 67 percent of the survey sample would consider voting for an “Independent candidate running for governor.”

Is Tierney Done in Mass.?

While a highly publicized scandal appears to be undoing Florida Republican David Rivera’s re-election campaign, a Massachusetts Democrat is apparently feeling similar heat. Early this year, Rep. John Tierney’s (D-MA-6) wife, Patrice, was sentenced to 30 days in prison and another five months of house arrest for her role in falsifying her brother’s tax returns to hide profits from an illegal gambling operation. Though Rep. Tierney himself was not accused of any wrongdoing, he may be coming to the end of his congressional career, nonetheless.

Yesterday, following the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) decision to cancel a $650,000 media buy on his behalf, Tierney’s campaign cancelled $370,000 of television advertising in the Boston market they had previously reserved. This means the congressman’s campaign will have no television airing from Oct. 23rd to the election, unless they purchase new time segments. But, if they were planning such a media re-allocation move as the campaign manager suggests, then why cancel the original purchase carrying lower rates?

The Tierney action follows Republican Richard Tisei releasing a new McLaughlin & Associates poll showing him with a 50-33 percent lead. The Boston Globe, in late September, found Tisei to be holding a 37-31 percent advantage. These moves, plus Tierney’s current ad talking about his wife’s legal woes (and saying he had nothing to do with her admitted illegal actions) suggests that the congressman is effectively conceding the race. Converting a heavily Democratic Massachusetts congressional district such as MA-6 will be a boon to Republican hopes of expanding the size of their current House majority.

New Poll Shows Troubling Trend for Indiana Sen. Lugar

McLaughlin Associates, polling for the Richard Mourdock campaign (April 16-17; 400 likely Indiana Republican primary voters), projects that Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar (R) has fallen into a one-point deficit in his battle for renomination. According to the data, state treasurer Mourdock (R) leads the six-term senator 42-41 percent among the small sample of likely May 8 GOP primary voters.

The significance of the poll is not so much the ballot test result, but what lies in the trends leading to that finding. Since McLaughlin’s last poll (Jan. 18-19), the race has swung a net 13 points in Mourdock’s favor (Mourdock up 6; Lugar down 7), despite Mourdock being outspent 3:1. Lugar’s heavy negative attacks against Mourdock are a further indication that the senator’s own survey research suggests the same trend.

Potentially more troubling for Sen. Lugar in what is likely to be a relatively low-turnout primary election – mostly because the Republican presidential campaign is virtually decided – is the split among polling respondents who have an opinion of both candidates. Within this sample cell, Mourdock has a commanding 55-36 percent lead.

What likely plays to Lugar’s advantage, however, is the open primary law. In Indiana, as in many states where voters do not register by political party, a qualified individual requests the party ballot for which he or she wants to vote. Therefore, people beyond the group of self-identified Republicans are eligible to participate. Since the Democrats do not have many contested primary races, individuals who normally vote Democratic or consider themselves non-affiliated could conceivably participate in this election. Part of the Lugar campaign strategy is to swell the GOP turnout rolls with voters from these two groups since the senator’s appeal to them is relatively strong while Mourdock’s is poor.

A Republican Double-Header Sweep

Thirteen proved to be a lucky number for Republicans, as the party’s candidates won two special congressional elections last night, Sept. 13.

The upset of the political season went to GOP contender Bob Turner, who defeated Democratic state Assemblyman David Weprin, thus converting the vacated Anthony Weiner congressional district to the Republicans. Prior to Weiner’s election to Congress, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) held the 9th district for nine terms before being elected statewide.

Mr. Turner, a retired broadcasting executive, scored a 54-46 percent win in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 57-18 percent count. Only 22 percent of the registered voters participated in the special election, a key reason why the GOP nominee was able to win despite having such a small political base. He scored 48 percent of the vote in the Queens borough, which is NY-9’s population anchor. He won the race, however, in Brooklyn where he attracted an astonishing 69 percent of the vote.

In the closing days of the campaign four pollsters, McLaughlin Associates, Magellan Strategies, Siena College and Public Policy Polling, all produced surveys projecting Turner to be in strong position and headed to victory. Last night’s results certainly proved the pollsters correct. On a side note, the NY election result is a bad sign for President Obama, as his favorability ratings in this heavily Democratic district are poor. Carrying the seat over John McCain with 55 percent of the vote in 2008, the PPP poll showed the President actually trailing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (42-46 percent) and ahead of Texas Gov. Rick Perry by just one percentage point (44-43 percent) in hypothetical presidential match-ups. Obama scores poorly on his handling of the economy and on issues concerning US policy in the Middle East, greatly influenced by the 36 percent of the district’s residents who are members of the Jewish faith.

Turning to the west, former state legislator and Nevada Republican Party chairman Mark Amodei easily won the congressional district seat that was vacated when then-Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV-2) was appointed to the US Senate. Amodei won easily, scoring a 58-37 percent margin of victory over Democratic state Treasurer Kate Marshall. Rep-elect Amodei now becomes an incumbent in a district that touches all 17 of Nevada’s counties, but will likely only occupy the northern half of the state post-redistricting. His toughest electoral challenge may still lie ahead, however. It is likely that 2010 Republican Senatorial nominee Sharron Angle will challenge the new congressman in a Reno-Carson City anchored district during the regular 2011 election cycle. This will be a competitive race despite Mr. Amodei’s short-term incumbency.

Turnout for the Nevada election was much greater than the voter participation level in New York. Approximately 140,000 voters went to the polls to choose a replacement for Mr. Heller, about 35 percent of those registered, slightly higher than the average special congressional election draws.

The Turner victory restores the New York delegation to 21D-8R, the ratio found on election night 2010. Republicans lost the 26th District in a special election earlier in the year, so the two parties have now traded conversion districts.

The current House party division count now stands at 242 Republicans; 192 Democrats; and one vacancy (ex-Rep. David Wu, D-OR-1). The final vacant seat will be filled in a Jan. 31 special election.

Upset City in NY’s 9th CD?

The special election to fill former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s (D-NY-9) congressional vacancy in New York City will be held tomorrow and the latest poll from the Siena College Research Institute (Aug. 6-8; 886 likely NY-9 special election voters) suggests a possible Republican upset in this heavily Democratic district.

According to the Siena survey, Republican Bob Turner, a retired broadcasting executive, leads Democratic state Assemblyman David Weprin 50-44 percent. This is on the heels of a Magellan Strategies study (Sept. 1; 2,055 likely NY-9 voters via automated telephone calls) giving Turner a 45-40 percent advantage. Furthermore, within the last 10 days, McLaughlin Associates showed the race to be tied at 42 percent, prompting the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to counter with their own Global Strategy Group (GSG) survey (Aug. 30-31; 400 likely NY-9 voters), which posted Weprin to a 47-39 percent lead. The high error factor (4.9 percent) for a poll with a large congressional district sample suggests that the GSG results may be from the “educated” ballot test, meaning that people were given further information about the candidates after the respondents made their initial candidate preference selection.

An upset in a New York irregular election would be nothing new. In the past two years, three special elections have been held in the state, each producing a winner different from the early projected favorite. The one special election where the favored candidate won, Rep. Tom Reed (R-NY-29), was held concurrently with the 2010 general election. The others, all in Republican seats, elected Reps. Scott Murphy (D-NY-20), who was subsequently defeated in the succeeding regular election, Bill Owens (D-NY-23), and Kathy Hochul (D-NY-26).

As in all special elections, turnout will be the determining factor. With a superior Democratic Party operation in the city, Weprin certainly has a chance to win regardless of the late polling results. If the Democrats are motivated to turn out, then Weprin can survive. If they are not inclined to do so in sufficient numbers, then we could see a GOP upset.

Should Turner win this seat, the Republicans will likely sweep the two congressional special elections being held tomorrow. The other, in Nevada’s 2nd district, will likely elect Republican Mark Amodei. Winning the New York seat, however, will almost assuredly have national ramifications and won’t make any Democrat, including President Obama, feel overly secure.
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