Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Michelle Nunn’

The Run-offs are on in Georgia and Louisiana

In House, Senate on November 7, 2014 at 11:20 pm

Georgia and Louisiana are the only two states that hold post-general election run-offs. In Louisiana, the state primary is concurrent with the general election and features all candidates appearing on the same ballot. Thus, if a contender exceeds 50 percent of the vote, the person is elected outright. In Georgia, all party nominees must obtain an absolute majority to secure election. Therefore, remembering that Georgia has a run-off system for primary nomination, it is conceivable that a candidate would have to endure four separate elections in order to claim a political office.

In 2014, despite many predictions that both the Georgia Senate and governor’s race would be forced into a post-election run-off, neither were. Businessman David Perdue (R) captured the Senate seat with 53 percent, the same percentage in which Gov. Nathan Deal (R) secured re-election. Therefore, the “second generation of Democrats”, meaning Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former US Sen. Sam Nunn (D), and Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, both failed to fulfill pre-election expectations.

And, with seven of the state’s 14 congressional district incumbents running Continue reading >

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Georgia Senate Turning

In Polling, Senate on October 16, 2014 at 12:16 pm

Republican David Perdue (above) has fumbled the ball recently, both in accusing opponent Michelle Nunn of having an unexplained role in funneling money to terrorist organizations and then saying he is “proud” of his business record for outsourcing jobs.

Despite the perceived gaffes, the polling was still showing him holding a small lead across the board until now. Survey USA (Oct. 10-13; 563 likely Georgia voters) yesterday released new figures placing Democrat Nunn ahead 48-45 percent, her first lead of the campaign. But, is this the formation of a new trend or a mere blip?

The same poll tested the top of the ticket and the down ballot races. In the governor’s race, S-USA finds what many pollsters have, Continue reading >

Punching and Counter-Punching in Kansas and Georgia

In Senate on October 2, 2014 at 12:46 pm

Candidates across the nation are launching comparison spots at rapid-fire pace just as political prime time begins in earnest. This is particularly so in Kansas and Georgia, where all four of the contenders in the two states’ Senate races are delivering major blows that will ultimately lay the final victory groundwork for two of the participants.


Roberts on Offense

Kansas

Sen. Pat Roberts (R), reeling from self-imposed wounds administered weeks and months ago and now facing a unified Continue reading >

The State of the Senate

In Senate on September 22, 2014 at 10:34 am

Much has been written about which party will control the US Senate in the next Congress and, with seven pure toss-up races on the political board, there’s plenty of room for conjecture on both sides of the ideological aisle.

Let’s take a look at the aggregate Senate campaign picture, remembering that the Republicans must retain all of the seats they currently possess (15 in this election cycle) and convert six Democratic states just to reach the minimum majority level. Democrats will maintain control if the two parties deadlock at 50-50 (including the Independents who will caucus with one party or the other). The Dems hold power in such a situation because Vice President Joe Biden (D), the constitutional Senate president, will break any tie vote in his party’s favor.

The model also assumes Republican conversion victories in three Democratic retirement seats, Montana (Sen. John Walsh), South Dakota (Sen. Tim Johnson), and West Virginia (Sen. Jay Rockefeller). A three-way contest in South Dakota could Continue reading >

The One-Point Races – Four in All

In Polling, Senate on September 2, 2014 at 12:02 pm

As we pass Labor Day and enter into Election 2014 stretch drive mode, it appears that four US Senate races are polling within one point. In Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina, a polling conglomeration over the last several weeks points to consistently dead-even contests.

Another race, in Alaska, could join this group, but their late primary (Aug. 19) has only yielded an official nominee for a short period. Once the polling crystallizes around Sen. Mark Begich (D) and former Attorney General and Natural Resources Department director Dan Sullivan (R) as the two official candidates, a more consistent close race will likely formulate. The recent polling history, virtually all of which was conducted before the state primary, has yielded inconsistent results.

Right now, it is clear that Republicans will gain seats in the US Senate, but will they score well enough on the conversion front to wrest a small majority away from the Democrats? Such is the major question that will be answered in the next two months.

If one considers that the GOP will likely hold its two vulnerable seats in Georgia Continue reading >

Conflicting Reports in the Georgia Senate Race

In Polling, Senate on August 26, 2014 at 12:01 pm

Conflict is arising once again in the Georgia Senate race. With six of seven post run-off polls showing Republican businessman David Perdue holding a lead over Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn, Landmark Communications released a new survey (Aug. 20-21; 600 registered Georgia voters) that projects a different result.

According to Landmark, Nunn has a 47-40 percent advantage over Perdue, virtually the exact opposite of other pollsters. Of the six polls that posted Perdue as maintaining the superior position, the Republican candidate’s average support factor was 48.3 percent. Nunn’s commensurate score was 41.2 percent. Six different independent pollsters conducted the half-dozen surveys.

Significantly, the seventh poll – the one that placed Nunn ahead – was also a Landmark study (July 25; 750 registered Georgia voters). While the others came to the opposite conclusion, Landmark, ironically a Republican firm, found the Democrat leading 47-43 percent. Prior to that, Landmark also found Nunn on top with their July 16 poll (1,720 registered Georgia voters), 48-42 percent. But, regarding that particular poll, they had company. Public Policy Polling (July 11-13; 664 registered Georgia voters) came to virtually the same conclusion during the same period: Nunn 48 percent – Perdue 41 percent.
Continue reading >

Surprising Midwest, South Polls

In Governor, House, Polling, Senate on August 15, 2014 at 2:28 pm

Polls are coming fast and furiously now, and will continue to do so throughout the remaining portion of summer and onto Election Day. Four post-primary surveys were just released that project flat ties or close contests between the various Democratic and Republican nominees, and each fit at least tangentially into the surprise category.

Kansas

A poisonous political atmosphere exists between Kansas conservative and moderate Republicans, which is partially responsible for veteran Sen. Pat Roberts winning an underwhelming 48-41 percent primary victory over physician Milton Wolf. A new Rasmussen Reports poll (Aug. 6-7; 750 likely Kansas voters) gives the incumbent only a 44-40 percent lead over newly nominated Democratic candidate Chad Taylor, the Shawnee County District Attorney. Taylor, too, scored an anemic primary win (53-47 percent), but his standing right after the Aug. 5 vote is much better than Kansas voting history would suggest.

The Rasmussen numbers also reflect Republican weakness in the governor’s race. Despite a better-than-expected showing in his primary (63 percent), Gov. Sam Continue reading >

First General Polls from Georgia; A Look at Nebraska, New York House Races

In Election Analysis on July 28, 2014 at 5:44 pm

Georgia Senate

The first two Georgia Senate general election polls have been released, and it’s not particularly surprising that we already have a conflict. The Peach State campaign has already witnessed more than its fair share of controversy and surprise happenings. Now two pollsters, Rasmussen Reports and Landmark Communications, surveyed the electorate immediately after the July 22nd Republican run-off election and found very different results.

Rasmussen Reports (July 23-24; 750 registered Georgia voters) began polling the day after businessman David Perdue scored an upset win over Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1) in the Republican run-off. The firm finds the new GOP nominee leading Democrat Michelle Nunn 46-40 percent, at least one point beyond the polling margin of error.

But, Landmark Communications, in data released on July 25 (also 750 registered Georgia voters), finds Nunn claiming a four-point advantage, 47-43 percent. This  Continue reading >

Perdue Notches Upset in Georgia Senate Win; House Results

In House, Senate on July 23, 2014 at 6:38 pm

Georgia Senate

Former Dollar General CEO David Perdue came from well behind to defeat Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1) in the US Senate Republican run-off to score what most believe is an upset win for the GOP nomination. He now faces Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn, who won her own primary outright back on May 20.

With just over 480,000 people voting in the run-off contest, Perdue captured 51 percent of the vote. The contest see-sawed early, but Perdue’s dominance in the more populous northern part of the state provided a strong clue that he would prevail in the end. As in the primary election, Kingston ran very strong south of Interstate 16, thus taking virtually all of southern Georgia, but failed to make enough inroads in the central and northern geographic sectors with the exception of the extreme northwestern counties hugging the Tennessee border. Therefore, since both candidates were demonstrating regional strength the campaign became a numbers game, and Perdue’s region was simply larger.
 Continue reading >

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