Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Mike Kopp’

Colorado’s First Post-Primary Data

In Governor, Polling, Senate on July 7, 2014 at 2:16 pm

Gov. John Hickenlooper’s (D) performance in office has led many political observers to predict that the Centennial State’s gubernatorial contest will drive voter turnout in 2014, and not national politics. Making the situation even more interesting, the first post-primary Rasmussen Reports poll (June 25-26; 750 likely Colorado voters) finds Hickenlooper and former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO-7) running neck and neck, falling into a flat tie with the results projecting both men tallying 44 percent support.

Rasmussen went into the field just a day after Beauprez claimed the Republican nomination. Despite winning the GOP primary, the former congressman received only 30 percent of the Republican vote, so it is doubtful that a post-nomination bump has artificially inflated Beauprez’s total against Hickenlooper.

The governor, his administration, and the Democratic legislature have taken major legislative steps in the areas of gun control, agriculture, energy, marijuana, and government spending, moving the state decidedly leftward. Enough opposition voters responded to the initiatives with a backlash of activity, first by successfully  Continue reading >

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Decision Day in Six States

In Governor, House, Senate on June 24, 2014 at 12:03 pm

Mississippi

Voters will be casting ballots in six states, and the Mississippi Republican run-off contest between Sen. Thad Cochran and state Sen. Chris McDaniel gains top national billing. Most polling suggests that McDaniel, who placed first in the primary with 49.4 percent of the vote, is favored to capture the party nod. His victory would unseat a veteran Republican senator who was first elected to Congress in 1972.

FL-19

Another US House special election will be decided today as GOP businessman Curt Clawson is poised to win Florida’s 19th Congressional District, left vacant by freshman Rep. Trey Radel’s (R) resignation. Clawson, armed with $2 million of personal money and strong backing from various Tea Party groups, easily won the Republican nomination on April 22. The former Purdue University basketball player will cruise to victory against Democrat April Freeman in the safely Republican seat anchored in the Ft. Myers/Cape Coral area. He will be sworn into office later this week, and then immediately begin running for a full term.  Continue reading >

Colorado Assembly Results

In Governor, House, Senate on April 15, 2014 at 10:21 am

Senate

Colorado’s US Senate general election battle is already underway as Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO-4) won the Republican nomination outright at the party’s official state Assembly meeting this past weekend. By capturing 74 percent of the convention delegate votes, and with no candidates petitioning for access to the ballot, the two-term congressman officially assumes the role of Republican senatorial nominee against incumbent Sen. Mark Udall (D). Democrats also met in convention, and all party incumbents were nominated for another term.

House

The Republicans, however, provided more drama in addition to Gardner’s victory. Two federal GOP primaries have now formulated, in the 3rd and 5th Congressional Districts. Farmer David Cox secured 34 percent of the vote, four points more than the minimum requirement, to advance to a primary contest against sophomore Rep. Scott Tipton (R-CO-3).

To the south and east, former Air Force Major General Bentley Rayburn, who ran for the House in both 2006 and ’08, secured 37 percent of the delegate vote in the 5th Congressional District, and will again challenge Rep. Douglas Lamborn in the  Continue reading >

In Colorado, When You’re Up, You’re Down

In Governor, Polling on February 6, 2014 at 11:14 am

Yesterday, we published a piece analyzing the University of New Hampshire’s poll and made special note of their readings for US Reps. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH-1) and Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH-2). The study results were unusual in the fact that they showed Shea-Porter’s job approval rising, but her ballot test declining, while projecting Kuster in the exact opposite position.

Now, a new poll from Quinnipiac University (Jan. 29-Feb. 2; 1,139 registered Colorado voters) finds Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in a similar position to Rep. Shea-Porter. The governor’s job approval has expanded to a solid 52:39 percent favorable to unfavorable, which is a strong improvement when compared to the numbers he was posting in the latter part of 2013. Added to his personal favorability of 47:37 percent positive to negative, one would expect that his ballot performance would be likewise improving, yet his standing continues to lag according to this data.

To further explain, while generally holding  Continue reading >

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