Next Steps for the 2016 Presidential Election: Delegates & Timing

A year from now, we will be fast approaching the initial Iowa Caucus vote, but much remains to be decided before the first voters cast their ballots in the 2016 presidential contest. Most of the uncompleted tasks involve delegate allocation and scheduling.

Today, it appears the Democrats will have 4,508 voting delegates at their national convention, which will likely occur either during the week of July 25th or Aug. 22nd. The Democratic National Committee has narrowed their convention site to three possibilities: New York City, Philadelphia and Columbus, OH. Republicans look to be gearing up for their convention during the week of July 18th, and they have already decided upon Cleveland as their gathering site. The total GOP delegate universe will be a much smaller 2,409.

Each party’s nomination rules will go a long way toward determining the respective presidential contenders, particularly on the Republican side. Though the Democratic delegate allocation formula (by state) is very complex, their voting process is simpler. Thirty-seven states will employ a proportional allocation structure based upon primary votes cast, while 18 more will meet in a caucus/state convention system. One state, Texas, will use a combined caucus and proportional primary program, and one final entity, Michigan, will assign all of its delegates to the winning primary candidate in a Winner-Take-All format.

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Election Night Analysis

Election Night 2013 may have turned out somewhat differently than political polling projected in terms of margin, but the actual voting yielded few surprise winners.

New Jersey

In New Jersey, as expected, Gov. Chris Christie (R) romped to a second term, defeating state Sen. Barbara Buono (D) 60-38 percent. The only question would be whether the governor could bring new Republican state legislators with him, but the legislative chambers remained virtually intact. The initial unofficial count shows the GOP gaining one state Senate seat and two Assembly positions, but strong Democratic majorities remain in both bodies.

Virginia

In Virginia, though polls were suggesting a Terry McAuliffe win of greater than five points over Ken Cuccinelli – the final Washington Post poll projected a 12-point gap, for example – the actual Democratic margin of victory was only three points,

Graham Below 50%; NYC Mayoral Update

Sen. Lindsey Graham

A new poll shows South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) dropping below majority support in his battle for renomination in next year’s Republican senatorial primary. Graham, running for a third six-year term, is opposed by three Republicans, only one of whom has been elected to any office. The poll, however, possesses a significant methodological flaw, which could cast doubt upon the results.

The survey, from Landmark Communications and Rosetta Stone Communications (Aug. 25; 500 South Carolina Republican voters; released Sept. 5) posts Sen. Graham to a 42-13-10-7 percent lead over state Sen. Lee Bright, businesswoman Nancy Mace – the first female graduate from The Citadel – and businessman and former 3rd Congressional District candidate Richard Cash, respectively.

While Graham clearly has a large cumulative lead over his opponents, this study projects him far away from reaching the 50 percent mark necessary for clinching the party nomination without a run-off election.

Under South Carolina law, such run-off elections are generally held only two weeks after the primary vote. Considering that the 2010 federal MOVE Act requires a 45-day period for military and overseas voters to receive and return their ballots, it is conceivable that a court could force the state to schedule a longer time between elections, just as judges in at least New York, Texas, and Georgia have done. Should the run-off be rescheduled to create a longer election cycle, the conventional wisdom is such a change may help a potential Graham head-to-head challenger because the individual will have some time to raise the

NYC Results; Colorado Recall

New York

As expected, public advocate Bill de Blasio finished first in his bid for the Democrat mayoral nomination last night and continues to hover around the 40 percent mark. Under New York City election law, a candidate must reach the 40 percent plateau or a run-off between the top two finishers occurs at a later date – Oct. 1, in this case. Former NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson is second with 26 percent. The campaign’s original leader, City Council President Christine Quinn, finished a distant third with only 16 percent of the vote. Disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY-9) actually dropped to fifth position, capturing a mere 5 percent of his party’s vote.

Despite a turnout approaching 10 times less than the Democratic participation number, former NY Metropolitan Transit Authority chairman Joe Lhota won the Republican nomination outright, capturing 53 percent of the vote. Supermarket magnate John Catsamitidis was second with 41 percent. Doe Foundation founder George McDonald finished way back attracting just 7 percent support.

It might take several days to determine if de Blasio actually reached 40 percent, allowing for uncounted precinct, absentee and provisional ballots. Should he fall short, it will literally be by only a handful of votes, so it will be interesting to see if Thompson pushes for the run-off, or concedes the nomination. Late polls gave the first place finisher double-digit leads over the former New York comptroller, but things can certainly change in a new election between just two candidates. More likely than not, however, de Blasio will claim his party’s nomination whether it be this week or on Oct. 1. He then will face Lhota in the Nov. 5 general election.

Though the Republicans are badly outnumbered in terms of voter registration, they have kept the Democrats from winning the mayor’s office for the past 20 consecutive years. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani served two terms beginning in 1993, and current incumbent Michael Bloomberg has held the office since 2001. The latter man was originally elected as a Republican, but later switched to Independent status. De Blasio will be favored in the general election, but expect Lhota to be competitive, especially with a public financing system that ensures he will have more than $6 million to spend on the campaign.

New Yorkers Vote Today

Mayor

The long-awaited New York City mayor’s race features its primary election today, and three new polls all arrive at similar findings. According to Marist College/New York Times (Sept. 3-6; 936 registered NYC Democrats), Public Policy Polling (Sept. 7-8; 683 likely NYC Democrat voters), and Quinnipiac University (Sept. 6-8; 782 likely NYC Democrat voters), NYC Public Advocate Bill de Blasio will place first in tonight’s vote, but will he obtain enough votes to avoid an Oct. 1 run-off election?

Marist scores the candidates 36-20-20 percent in de Blasio’s favor, followed by former NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson and City Council President Christine Quinn. PPP shows a similar 39-19-13 percent spread, with the candidates in the same order. Finally, the Q-Poll projects a 39-25-18 percent finish for the trio.

To avoid a post-primary run-off a candidate must receive at least 40 percent of the vote, so it is obvious that de Blasio is teetering right around the minimum figure. Should he fall into a run-off, he is likely to face Thompson, who has more upward momentum than Council President Quinn. Once the leader of the race, Quinn’s support level has been steadily digressing for the past several weeks. Disgraced former US Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY-9) has dropped to also-ran status, registering only single-digits in all polling.

At least right now, de Blasio appears to be a heavy favorite if he is forced to a secondary election. Against Thompson, Marist finds the public advocate leading with a 50-38 percent advantage. If Quinn sneaks into the run-off, de Blasio would destroy her 56-34 percent.

PPP gives de Blasio a larger 53-33 percent advantage over Thompson and a massive 67-21 percent spread against Quinn.

Quinnipiac did not test a potential run-off scenario.

Whether it happens tonight or on Oct. 1, current polling points to de Blasio as the eventual Democrat nominee.

Though the pollsters have paid little attention to the Republican side, internal research sources suggest that former New York Metropolitan Authority chairman Joe Lhota is favored to defeat outright supermarket magnate John Catsamitidis and Doe Fund founder George McDonald. Though the Democrats have not held this

San Diego Shocker

Councilman Carl DeMaio

It looked to be a foregone conclusion that former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio (R), who lost a close 52-48 percent election to now-resigned Mayor Bob Filner (D) just last November, would run in the special mayoral election to be held before the end of this year. Not so, according to DeMaio’s announcement yesterday.

Almost immediately after his 2012 loss, DeMaio switched gears into a congressional campaign against freshman Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA-52). Peters unseated Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-CA-50) by an even closer 51-49 percent count on the same day that DeMaio lost to Filner. With strong fundraising and polling – two surveys actually posted DeMaio ahead of Peters by 10 and 11 points from data collected two months apart – the former municipal candidate was becoming one of the strongest Republican congressional challengers in the nation.

There appear to be several major reasons DeMaio has decided to bypass what looks to be a winnable mayor’s race in order to stay in what, on paper, should be a tougher congressional contest against a well-funded incumbent, and they all relate to mathematics. In fact, multiple numbers point to DeMaio having a better chance to attain victory in the congressional race than running citywide.

First, while the early congressional polls place him ahead of Rep. Peters, as we previously mentioned, the one public survey released for the prospective mayoral campaign showed him trailing; one point behind former state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher who has flipped his voter registration from Republican to Independent to Democrat in less than

Democrats Battle in CA-17; Spitzer Reels

The elimination of California’s partisan primaries, as was done prior to the last election, will again seriously affect Golden State politics in the 2014 mid-term vote. Under the state’s new jungle primary law, the top two candidates in the June election advance to the general regardless of political party affiliation and percentages attained. Therefore, former US Commerce Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Ro Khanna’s intra-party Democratic challenge to seven-term Rep. Mike Honda will likely last the entire campaign cycle.

Khanna has already been extraordinarily successful on the fundraising circuit, attracting more than $1 million for the 2014 race, and exceeding $1.7 million cash-on-hand. In the 2012 cycle, Khanna was briefly in the 15th District race when he believed that 80 year-old then-incumbent Pete Stark (D) was going to retire. Upon Stark’s decision to run again, all Democratic contenders with the exception of Dublin City Councilman Eric Swalwell withdrew. Swalwell then successfully unseated Rep. Stark 52-48 percent in a Democrat-on-Democrat general election.

Before exiting the Stark campaign, Khanna raised over $1.26 million and had north of $1 million remaining in his campaign account, thus explaining the large early war chest for his Honda challenge. Conversely, Rep. Honda has not been as financially prolific in early 2013, obtaining over $567,000, but ending with less than $375,000 in the bank.

But a just-released Public Policy Polling survey for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (Aug. 2-4; 806 registered CA-17 voters) shows that Khanna has a long way to go if he is to upset this incumbent, as Honda leads the ballot test 49-15 percent. The result is similar to the previously released Lake Research poll (Feb. 17-20; 503 registered CA-17 voters), commissioned for the Honda campaign, that posted the congressman to a 57-13-5 percent

Minnesota Rumblings; Weiner Under Fire

Several developments are unfolding in budding Minnesota congressional races. A new Democratic poll in the state’s 2nd District shows House Education and Workforce Committee chairman John Kline dropping under 50 percent to the man he summarily defeated in 2012, while a serious Democratic challenger is potentially surfacing against Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-MN-3) in the adjoining district.

Victoria Research (July 17-21; 400 registered MN-2 voters), polling for the liberal House Majority PAC, tested former state Rep. Mike Obermueller against incumbent Kline and found the congressman to be leading 45-32 percent. But, the poll appears slanted.

Repeatedly the questionnaire stresses “compromise” in law making and clearly attempts to paint Kline as one not inclined to bend. For example, Obermueller was cast as a person who is “working together with others to achieve common goals.” The inference is that Kline is not. After characterizing Obermueller in this manner, another ballot test was then asked and, unsurprisingly, the Democrat forges into the lead 44-38 percent. Such a push question skews the poll’s overall results.

In any event, however, Kline did not receive a particularly favorable draw in redistricting and his Minneapolis suburban district is marginal in nature. President Obama carried the seat over Republican nominee Mitt Romney, but by only the smallest of spreads, just 0.1 percent of the vote. In the last congressional election, Rep. Kline defeated Obermueller 54-46 percent, a margin of some 29,000-plus votes.

Next door, former news anchorman Don Shelby (D) is confirming that he is considering launching a challenge to three-term incumbent Paulsen.

The 3rd CD, which encompasses the western Minneapolis suburbs of Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Plymouth, and Brooklyn Park, is also a marginal district but trends a bit more Republican though President Obama topped Romney by one point and almost four in 2008.

Paulsen, a former seven-term state Representative and legislative leader, originally won the district in 2008 with a 48-41 percent victory. He has since been re-elected with margins of 59-36 percent and 58-42 percent in 2010 and ’12, respectively. Neither of his re-election opponents, however, spent more than $530,000 against him.

It remains to be seen if either Democratic challenge develops in these Twin Cities’ suburban districts, but the voting patterns will yield competitive campaigns under the right circumstances. It is difficult to see, however, the climate becoming ripe for Democrats under a mid-term turnout model as we will experience in 2014.

Impact of NC Redistricting Upheld

The special three-judge state panel hearing the redistricting challenge to the legislative and congressional maps unanimously, and with a mention that partisanship was left out of their decision, ruled in favor of the state of North Carolina. This means that the Republican-drawn maps will continue to stand.

The judicial panel was comprised of two Democrats and one Republican. The upheld maps sent nine Republicans and four Democrats to Washington from the congressional delegation; a state Senate consisting of 33 Republicans and 17 Democrats; and a state House comprised of 77 Republicans and just 43 Democrats. Prior to the 2010 elections and the subsequent redistricting, Democrats held an 8-5 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 30-20 margin in the state Senate, and commanded a 68-52 House majority.

The decision will undoubtedly be appealed to the state Supreme Court, but a panel with a Republican majority is unlikely to overturn a Democratic special court that found in the state’s favor.

There are two key practical effects from the ruling. First, as it relates to the US Supreme Court’s Shelby County v. Holder opinion, it is now highly unlikely that the maps will be redrawn prior to the next census. Thus, the Shelby County decision will not likely come into play here until 2021. Since North Carolina has live redistricting litigation ongoing, as does Florida, Arizona, and Kentucky, an overturn of the state’s map could have had a major effect upon any new court-mandated drawing.

Second, one of North Carolina’s remaining four Democratic seats, the 7th District of Rep. Mike McIntyre, saw the closest finish of any 2012 US House race. McIntyre was re-elected over former state Sen. David Rouzer with a mere 654-vote margin from more than 336,000 ballots cast. With Rouzer already running again and facing a mid-term turnout model without President Obama leading the Democratic ticket, it makes McIntyre the most endangered Democrat in Congress. A redraw would have greatly helped him. Now without such a boost, does McIntyre even run again? The coming weeks in the southeastern corner of