Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘NJ-9’

Walker’s Convincing Win in Wisconsin; NJ-9 Surprise

In Governor, House on June 6, 2012 at 12:03 pm

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) handily repelled his recall challenge with a 53-46 percent victory over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) with a turnout larger than the 2010 midterm vote that originally elected him. The extraordinary outcome yielded a voter participation rate exceeding 2.5 million voters. In the 2010 midterm election, the total turnout was just under 2.2 million. Walker won that election over Barrett 52-46 percent, so he even slightly increased his margin of victory, too. The 2008 presidential election year turnout saw 2.9 million Wisconsin voters going to the polls, putting the size of the recall participation rate into perspective.

In a separate race, even though the two ran as a team in the midterm, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) also survived her recall, 53-47 percent. Three of the four Republican state senators who were facing recalls also won, but the lone Democratic victory does flip majority control by one vote. Much more in-depth analysis will be forthcoming about this race in the coming days.

In New Jersey’s new 9th Congressional District, in what was projected as a close contest between paired incumbents Steve Rothman (D-NJ-9) and Bill Pascrell (D-NJ-8), recorded the exact opposite result. Veteran Rep. Pascrell, trumpeting his backing from former President Bill Clinton but long thought to be the underdog here, scored an impressive 61-39 percent victory over Rep. Rothman. This is especially stunning considering that two of the three Democratic county party structures officially endorsed Rothman. Pascrell rode a huge turnout and overwhelming 92 percent loyalty factor from his Democratic voting base in Passaic County, thus leading to his strong victory. He will now cruise in the general election.

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Incumbent Pairing in N.J.’s 9th CD Too Close To Call

In House, Polling, Redistricting on May 25, 2012 at 12:13 pm

One of the nation’s hardest-fought intra-party incumbent campaigns will be decided on June 5 – a fierce battle between New Jersey Democratic Reps. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ-8) and Steve Rothman (D-NJ-9). Reapportionment and redistricting have created 13 sets of congressional incumbent pairings, three of which are decided. All but two feature members of the same party opposing each other. New NJ-9 polling data, disputed by one campaign brain trust, suggests a very tight outcome between the two congressmen.

The new 9th District of New Jersey lies to the north and east of Newark, capturing some of the communities directly opposite New York City across the Hudson River including Fort Lee, Secaucus, Englewood, Palisades Park, and Cliffside Park. It’s largest city is Paterson (population: 146,199), where Mr. Pascrell presided as mayor before his election to Congress in 1996. While serving as the city’s chief executive, he simultaneously represented part of Paterson and Passaic counties in the state House of Representatives.

The new 9th will elect a Democrat in the general election, but the party primary is becoming very interesting to say the least. Rothman is from Bergen County, but his home community of Fair Lawn was placed in District 5, where he would have been forced to challenge incumbent Rep. Scott Garrett (R) in a GOP-friendly seat. Rothman represents 54 percent of the new 9th CD constituency versus 43 percent for Pascrell. The remaining three percent comes from Garrett’s current district.

Just two days ago, a Pascrell internal poll was “leaked” to the media showing that Rothman clings to only a one-point, 44-43 percent margin. The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group poll (May 7-8; 406 likely NJ-9 Democratic primary voters) also indicated that Pascrell leads 46-41 percent under a slightly different turnout model. If the overall share of the Bergen County vote drops to 51 percent or below and the Passaic County voter participation share tops 38 percent, the race flips to Pascrell.

The intriguing part about this poll is not so much its finding, which is assumed accurate since Garin-Hart-Yang is a well-known, credible, Democratic polling firm but, rather, the Rothman campaign’s reaction to the numbers. Actually scoffing at the Pascrell team for leaking their numbers to the press – “winning campaigns do not leak their polls” – and saying the survey is wrong without offering their own countering data, suggests that this race is as close as Pascrell says and either man does have a chance to win the primary.

To differ with the unidentified Rothman spokesman who said that “winning campaigns do not leak their polls,” the exact opposite is true. A clearer sign of a campaign in trouble is one where the managers claim to have strong survey data, as Rothman’s people do, but then refuse to release the numbers.

On paper and in practice, Rep. Rothman has a slight advantage but the 75-year old Pascrell has been tenacious in defense of his redrawn seat. Rothman won the official Democratic Party endorsement in Bergen and Hudson counties, giving him preferential ballot placement in those two localities, which is a major plus in a close election. Though Pascrell has the Passaic County line, several prominent elected officials such as Paterson Mayor Jeff Jones and Passaic City Council President and state Assemblyman Gary Schaer have announced their support of Rothman.

It remains to be seen if Pascrell’s planned public push of an earlier endorsement by former president Bill Clinton changes the electorate in any significant way, but the move certainly won’t hurt his standing among these most loyal of northern New Jersey Democratic voters.

On a major primary night featuring voting in six states, including the 53 House Districts in California under a new election law, one of the most engrossing results will be found in this urban northern New Jersey congressional district. The final week fireworks here will be well worth watching.

Incumbents Match Up in NJ

In House, Redistricting on December 30, 2011 at 1:08 pm

Now that the New Jersey congressional map officially has been adopted, a new incumbent pairing has resulted. The state lost a seat in reapportionment, meaning that at least two of the state’s 13 congressmen would have to fight for just one seat.

Since the state’e bipartisan redistricting commission adopted the proposed Republican map, it appeared that Reps. Steve Rothman (D-NJ-9) and Scott Garrett (R-NJ-5) would square off in a new 5th District that contains about 79 percent of the territory from the latter’s current CD. Instead, Rothman announced that he will primary a fellow Democrat, Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ-8), in the new 9th District.

The new NJ-9 is a solid Democratic district and actually contains approximately 54 percent of the territory from Rothman’s current district as compared to just 43 percent from Pascrell’s seat. Rothman’s home of Fair Lawn is in the 5th CD, however, but the town in which he administered as Mayor prior to being elected to Congress in 1996, Englewood, is in the new 9th. Mr. Pascrell’s home of Paterson is also in the latest version of the 9th District.

Thus, Rothman now forces a major intra-party pairing battle that will be settled in the June primary. Though at first glance it appears that Mr. Rothman is the odd man out in this map scenario, it is actually Rep. Pascrell who may find himself on the outside looking in once the 9th District Democratic congressional nomination finally is decided. According to the latest available Federal Election Commission disclosure reports (Sept. 30), Rothman has $1.745 million cash-on-hand as compared to Pascrell’s $1.434 million. So, both men begin what promises to be a difficult race in strong financial position but Rothman appears to have the better overall political posture as the campaign begins.