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Posts Tagged ‘Peter Roskam’

Illinois Congressional Match-ups

In Election Analysis, House on March 23, 2012 at 1:19 pm

Now that Tuesday’s Illinois primary produced a slate of nominees for both parties in the 18 congressional districts, the general election cycle officially begins. Illinois is the Democrats’ most gerrymandered state in the nation and the one place where they can make significant gains in House races.

To re-cap, the current delegation stands at 11R-8D. The state loses one seat in reapportionment, which forced GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL-11) and Don Manzullo (R-IL-16) into the same district. Kinzinger, the freshman, proved to be the surprisingly easy 54-46 percent winner Tuesday night and faces only an Independent in the general election. The pairing of the two Republicans in the down-sized state, however, cost the GOP at least one seat.

    The safe Democrats, based upon voter history and quality of GOP opponents are:

  • District 1: Rep. Bobby Rush (D) – Obama ’08: 80.8%
  • District 2: Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) – Obama ’08: 81.1%
  • District 3: Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) – Obama ’08: 58.3%
  • District 4: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) – Obama ’08: 80.5%
  • District 5: Rep. Mike Quigley (D) – Obama ’08: 69.8%
  • District 7: Rep. Danny Davis (D) – Obama ’08: 89.4%
  • District 9: Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) – Obama ’08: 68.6%
    The safe Republicans, based upon voter history and quality of Democratic opponents are:

  • District 6: Rep. Peter Roskam (R) – Obama ’08: 51.3%
  • District 14: Rep. Randy Hultgren (R) – Obama ’08: 50.6%
  • District 15: Rep. John Shimkus (R) – Obama ’08: 42.8%
  • District 16: Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) – Obama ’08: 50.0%
  • District 18: Rep. Adam Schock (R) – Obama ’08: 44.1%

Six districts will set the tone for the general election. The Democrats believe they can make a net gain of four seats. Originally, they thought a fifth seat was in their grasp, but Rep. Tim Johnson (R-IL-13) drew little in the way of primary opposition and the man who Democrats’ believed to be their best candidate appears to have lost Tuesday’s primary. With 2010 nominee David Gill clinging to a lead of 143 votes, now with 100 percent of the vote counted, it appears Johnson will face an opponent he has twice beaten. The 13th is much more Democratic than his previous 15th CD, but the 54.6 percent Obama score is one of the lesser in the state. Johnson now becomes the decided favorite in this new district that stretches from him home region in Champaign to the southwest through Decatur and Springfield.

But the real battles will come in the Chicago suburbs and western Illinois. In the new 8th District, probably the most difficult seat for the Republicans to hold, freshman Rep. Joe Walsh (R) is taking his chances in a tough general election instead of running this past Tuesday against fellow GOP freshman Randy Hultgren in the 14th CD. In a district where President Obama scored 61.5 percent, Walsh will face former Veterans Affairs Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth, a disabled Iraq War veteran, who challenged Rep. Peter Roskam in the 6th District back in 2006 when the seat was open and took 49 percent of the vote. Tuesday, Duckworth notched an impressive 67-33 percent win over former Deputy State Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi who spent over $1 million in the Democratic primary race. Ms. Duckworth begins the general election as the favorite to unseat Walsh.

In the new 10th CD, a district that encompasses the Chicago suburban territory north of the city and hugs Lake Michigan to the Wisconsin border, freshman Rep. Bob Dold (R) must defend his seat that gave 63.0 percent of its votes to President Obama in 2008. Dold is a strong campaigner and had the advantage of seeing the Democrats fight it out in a tough primary that produced attorney Brad Schneider as the nominee. Schneider scored a 47-39 percent win over activist Ilya Sheyman and two others. Sheyman was the liberal base candidate, so the Democratic turnout drive in the general may be lessened a bit. It is unlikely Obama will score as well here as he did four years ago, so Dold has a chance to survive despite the gaudy Democratic political numbers.

Rep. Judy Biggert (R) will face former Rep. Bill Foster (D) in the new 11th District that stretches from her home area in Hinsdale southeast to include Joliet, the latter region brand new to the seven-term congresswoman. The general election will be a major fight here, but the political numbers give Foster and the Ds a clear advantage. Obama scored 61.4 percent under the new district confines. Foster, who lost his 14th District in 2010, has his own weaknesses, so this general election begins as a toss-up with a tilt toward the Dems.

The new 12th CD, anchored in the Democratic stronghold of East St. Louis and moving south all the way to Kentucky, is very much in play for November. Without incumbent Rep. Jerry Costello (D), who is retiring, the Democrats must now rely on former St. Clair County School Superintendent Brad Harriman in a district where the President received 54.7 percent of the vote. This is the only Illinois Democratic seat where the Obama percentage lessened significantly from the previous draw. The Republicans nominated their former lieutenant governor (2010) candidate Jason Plummer. With a strong campaign, the GOP could conceivably steal this seat, thus off-setting some of their other likely Illinois losses.

Finally, freshman Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) must defend his new 17th CD against East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos, who scored a 58 percent win Tuesday night against two Democratic candidates. The 17th was made more Democratic and now actually reaches into the city of Rockford from its traditional population anchor in the Quad Cities region. Obama posted a flat 60 percent here in 2008, meaning Schilling has tough sledding in 2012 with the President again leading the ticket. Still, this is a competitive race and with a strong campaign, Schilling has a chance to win a second term.

Disabled Veteran Tammy Duckworth Seeks Office

In House on July 8, 2011 at 8:58 am

In the Chicago suburbs, former 2006 congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth (D), who lost to Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL-6) 49-51 percent in their open seat contest of that year, is again entering elective politics. She will now run in the newly created 8th district in Illinois, which should elect a Democrat in the general election.

Already in the race is former Deputy state Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) who is set to report more than $400,000 raised for this campaign. Duckworth was one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers in the nation during the ’06 cycle, attracting more than $4.65 million in her losing House campaign. The new candidate, a disabled Iraq War veteran, recently resigned her position as Assistant Secretary for the Department of Veterans Affairs in order to return to Chicago to run for office.
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More Clarity to New Illinois Map has Republicans Feeling More Competitive

In Reapportionment on June 1, 2011 at 5:24 pm

The Illinois legislature made some final changes to the base congressional map, such as putting Reps. Tim Johnson (R-IL-15) and John Shimkus (R-IL-19) back in separate districts instead of pairing them, and then sent the legislation on to Gov. Pat Quinn (D). Democrats will make substantial gains in the state but, now that the political numbers have become public, the Republicans feel they are more competitive.

Originally, some analysts believed the Democrats would change the 11R-8D map to 13D-5R. Illinois loses a seat in reapportionment, thus explaining the difference in the total number. Taking a careful look at the political performances in races other than the 2008 presidential contest show that Republicans could fare better, possibly confining their losses to a net of three or four seats instead of five.

More information is unfolding as incumbents and party officials make statements. Once the map is signed into law, expect the Republican Party to file a lawsuit, challenging the fact that only one Hispanic district was drawn. Hispanics are a greater population than African-Americans in the state (2.02 million to 1.87 million according to the 2010 census) yet, under this new map, they have only one seat (Rep. Luis Gutierrez’s 4th district) versus three for African-Americans (Districts 1-Bobby Rush, 2-Jesse Jackson, Jr., and 7-Danny Davis. Republicans will argue that the “packing” of Hispanics should void the map. They clearly believe the drawing of a second Hispanic seat will help them in surrounding areas.

Turning to the political data, combining the results of the 2008 presidential race (Barack Obama defeating John McCain) with the 2010 Senate (Republican Mark Kirk beating Democrat Alexi Giannoulias) and gubernatorial races (Gov. Quinn nipping state legislator Bill Brady), a better feel can be obtained for the new 18 districts.

The Obama race cuts both ways. First, it is legitimate to believe that the Democratic number skews high in this race because the president is, of course, Illinois’ native son and the state’s 2008 numbers were among his best in the country. On the other hand, he will be back on the ballot in 2012, so the Republican incumbents and challengers will have to overcome his presence while fighting in substantially new territory.

Taking all three aforementioned races into consideration does make Republican prospects appear a bit better. First, there are six seats where Democrats swept each of the 2008 and 2010 studied races. They are new districts 1 (Rush), 2 (Jackson), 4 (Gutierrez), 5 (Mike Quigley), 7 (Davis), and 9 (Jan Schakowsky). These Democratic incumbents are clearly safe, realistically for the balance of the ensuing decade.

One district gave the Democratic candidate two of three victories. Dan Lipinski in the IL-3 will represent a reliable Democratic district, but one in which a Republican could win under certain circumstances. Mark Kirk, in 2010, carried the district by a 48-46 percent margin. The average Republican vote extrapolated over the three studied races is 44.0 percent.

Another Democratic seat only turned in one D victory in the three races. The downstate 12th district of Rep. Jerry Costello actually yielded Republican victories in the Senate (51-43 percent) and governor’s (50-44 percent) races. The average Republican vote is 48.3 percent, suggesting that this race could become competitive in an open seat situation, but is likely safe for Costello since 93 percent of the territory is from his old 12th CD.

Two seats are strongly Republican. The new 15th district that houses Rep. John Shimkus, is the most solid GOP seat in the state, scoring an average of 63.0 percent in the three races. Rep. Aaron Schock’s18th CD registers 62.7 percent.

Seven seats saw Republicans winning two of the three studied campaigns, with the president carrying the district in every case. Three of these districts, however, show the Republican average as dropping below 50 percent. The new open 8th CD is likely to go Democratic in an incumbent-less race. The GOP average there is 45.3 percent. The new 11th CD, where Rep. Judy Biggert would likely run, but is already being opposed by former Rep. Bill Foster (D-IL-14), turns in a 44.3 percent average Republican vote. And, in the Quad Cities region, freshman Rep. Bobby Schilling only sees an average Republican vote of 48.7 percent, but the seat is culturally more conservative than this partisan voting history suggests. In a re-match with defeated Rep. Phil Hare (D), Schilling would have a fighting chance to survive.

Rep. Peter Roskam’s 6th district appears favorable for him with an average Republican vote of 55.7 percent. Three potential pairings exist for the GOP, which is their biggest problem. Rep. Tim Johnson could challenge Shimkus in the new 15th, or run for re-election in the new 13th, where is house now resides. IL-13 is still majority Republican, but certainly not as strong as District 15. It is likely that Reps. Randy Hultgren and Joe Walsh will square off in new District 14, with Reps. Don Manzullo and Adam Kinzinger doing battle in the new 16th. Both latter districts produce an average 55.7 percent Republican vote.

Now that the political numbers are becoming known, it appears the Democrats can count seven wins in their column with three more seats leaning their way. The Republicans appear solid in five with one more leaning toward their party. Two seats figure to be toss-ups. Should the Democrats sweep the state in 2012, then a 12D-6R party division is the likely outcome. If Republicans rebound, then a 10D-8R final score is in the realm of possibility.
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