Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Reid Ribble’

Our Rundown of 23 Former Congressmen and Congresswomen Who May Run Again

In House on July 22, 2011 at 10:14 am

At this point, early in the 2012 election cycle, nine former members of Congress have announced that they will run again next year. An additional 14 confirm they are considering mounting another congressional campaign effort, but have not yet made a final decision.

Those who have announced their candidacy are highlighted in blue. The names in italics are possible candidates:

Arizona
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) – AZ-1 challenger (Rep. Paul Gosar); one term; elected 2008
Matt Salmon (R) – AZ-6 open seat; three terms in AZ-1; elected 1994

Florida
Alan Grayson (D) – FL-8 challenger (Rep. Dan Webster), or new seat that could be drawn in the Orlando area; one term; elected 2008

Georgia
Jim Marshall (D) – GA-8 challenger (Rep. Austin Scott); four terms; elected 2002; possible candidate

Illinois
Bill Foster (D) – IL-11 open seat; two terms in IL-14; elected early 2008

Indiana
David McIntosh (R) – IN-5 primary challenger (Rep. Dan Burton); three terms in IN-2; elected 1994

Michigan
Jim Barcia (D) – MI-5 open seat; five terms; elected 1992; possible candidate
Mark Schauer (D) – MI-7 challenger (Rep. Tim Walberg); one term; elected 2008; possible candidate

Minnesota
Rick Nolan (D) – MN-8 challenger (Rep. Chip Cravaack); three terms; elected 1974

Nevada
Dina Titus (D) – NV-3 challenger (Rep. Joe Heck) or new seat; one term; elected 2008. Though not announcing for a particular district until after redistricting is completed, ex-Rep. Titus is running for Congress; she recently resigned her position with the Civil Rights Commission to return to Nevada to begin assembling a campaign.

New Hampshire
Carol Shea-Porter (D) – NH-1 challenger (Rep. Frank Guinta); two terms; elected 2006

New York
Mike McMahon (D) – NY-13 challenger (Rep. Michael Grimm); one term; elected 2008; possible candidate
Scott Murphy (D) – NY-20 challenger (Rep. Chris Gibson); one term; elected 2009; possible candidate
Michael Arcuri (D) – NY-24 challenger (Rep. Richard Hanna); two terms; elected 2006; possible candidate

Ohio
Charlie Wilson (D) – OH-6 challenger (Rep. Bill Johnson); two terms; elected 2006; possible candidate
Jim Traficant (I) – OH-17 (will draw a different number since Ohio loses two seats) challenger (Rep. Tim Ryan); nine terms; elected 1984; possible candidate
Zack Space (D) – OH-18 (will draw a different number since Ohio loses two seats) challenger (Rep. Bob Gibbs); two terms; elected 2006; possible candidate

Pennsylvania
Kathy Dahlkemper (D) – PA-3 challenger (Rep. Mike Kelly); one term; elected 2008; possible candidate

Texas
Nick Lampson (D) – TX-14 open seat; four terms TX-9; one term TX-22; elected 1996 (TX-9); elected 2006 (TX-22); possible candidate
Steve Stockman (R) – TX-14 open seat; one term TX-9; elected 1994; possible candidate
Ciro Rodriguez (D) – TX-23 challenger (Rep. Quico Canseco); four terms TX-28; two terms TX-23; elected 1996 (TX-28); elected 2006 (TX-23)

West Virginia
Alan Mollohan (D) – WV-1 challenger (Rep. David McKinley); 14 terms; elected 1982; possible candidate

Wisconsin
Steve Kagen (D) – WI-8 challenger (Rep. Reid Ribble); two terms; elected 2006; possible candidate
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House Freshmen Debt

In House on February 18, 2011 at 8:29 am

While all the talk in Washington is about fiscal responsibility, the new House freshman class seems to command better standing than many other past first-term groups when comparing their public policy rhetoric to campaign practices.

Looking at the 2010 campaign finance statistics, 158 of 435 winning candidates ended their electoral cycle carrying some amount of campaign debt, slightly more than 1/3 of all victorious candidates, according to the year-end financial disclosure reports as published by the Federal Election Commission. Ninety-three are from veteran member campaigns, meaning much of their debt may be from previous election cycles.

Of the 63 freshmen carrying debt, not including members with a break in service or those elected in post-2008 special elections, the great preponderance are Republicans (56R-7D), mostly because GOP candidates won so many more races. Of the pure freshmen in the current 112th Congress, 87 are Republican compared to just nine Democrats.

Only two freshmen have over $1 million in campaign debt. Rep. Quico Canseco (R-TX-23) is showing the highest amount of red ink, but 52% of the $1.146 million is owed to himself in the form of a candidate loan. The second member to carry a seven-figured debt is Rep. Diane Black (R-TN-6). Her total is $1.046 million, but the entire amount is owed to herself.

Just five new members are carrying more than $500,000 in debt. They are:
• Bill Flores (R-TX-17) – $739,872
• David McKinley (R-WV-1) – $670,000
• Bill Hanna (R-NY-24) – $536,515
• David Schweikert (R-AZ-5) – $523,000
• Nan Hayworth (R-NY-19) – $504,902

A dozen first-term members hold debts of between $200,000 and $499,999. They are:
• Justin Amash (R-MI-3) – $408,200
• Mike Kelly (R-PA-3) – $382,720
• Scott Rigell (R-VA-2) – $378,000
• Jim Renacci (R-OH-16) – $375,222
• Joe Walsh (R-IL-8) – $361,740
• Jon Runyan (R-NJ-3) – $338,529
• Lou Barletta (R-PA-11) – $258,495
• Chuck Fleishmann (R-TN-3) – $250,000
• Cedric Richmond (D-LA-2) – $236,826
• Tim Griffin (R-AR-2) – $232,897
• Tim Mulvaney (R-SC-5) – $210,000
• Joe Heck (R-NV-3) – $203,000

An additional 13 are between $100,000 and $199,999 in the red:
• Reid Ribble (R-WI-8) – $173,009
• Vicky Hartzler (R-MO-4) – $163,406
• Scott Tipton (R-CO-3) – $158,687
• Dan Benishek (R-MI-1) – $157,000
• Blake Farenthold (R-TX-27) – $156,643
• Rick Berg (R-ND-AL) – $154,250
• Frederica Wilson (D-FL-17) – $154,750
• Bob Dold (R-IL-10) – $143,609
• David Rivera (R-FL-25) – $137,474
• Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1) – $121,959
• David Cicilline (D-RI-1) – $120,000
• Cory Gardner (R-CO-4) – $103,062
• Sandy Adams (R-FL-24) – $100,850

An additional 31 freshmen members have debt, but all are below $100,000 in dollars owed, and 24 have no debt at all.

It appears that the vast majority of freshmen will be debt-free and in strong financial position when the first quarter reporting period draws to an end on March 31. Maintaining such a status is crucial when preparing for the all-important first re-election campaign.

The rise of the independent organizations that put millions of dollars into specific, candidate-related political messages may be largely responsible for reducing not only candidate campaign spending to some degree, but also the individual members’ campaign debts. The final year-end financial figures are just one more indication that the world of campaign finance continues to evolve in new and very different ways. These results again underscore the fundamental changes in free expression that the Citizens’ United Supreme Court ruling has brought to the political marketplace.
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For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PRIsm@performanceandresults.com.