Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Rep. Bill Enyart’

Election Day is Here – Final Predictions

In Governor, House, Polling, Senate on November 4, 2014 at 11:04 am

Today is Election Day, and this long 2014 voting cycle will now finally conclude. When the votes are finally counted, it is probable that the Republicans will gain a significant majority in the Senate and expand their controlling position in the House. But, the governors’ races could yield a much different story.

Senate

As reported yesterday, all indications suggest that the Republicans will score enough conversion victories to assume majority control in the Senate. It appears the GOP will win enough victories to claim 52 seats and it’s possible their total will go higher, maybe even to 53 or even 54 states.

Three races in Kansas (Sen. Pat Roberts), North Carolina (Sen. Kay Hagan), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen) appear to be the closest contests. The Republicans winning any two of this group would secure 54 seats for the party, assuming a run-off in Louisiana eventually goes the GOP’s way, as does Georgia, though chances of Republican David Perdue winning outright tonight have greatly improved.

House

Expect the Republicans to hit the 240 mark Continue reading >

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Primary Time Continues in Illinois Tomorrow

In Governor, House, Senate on March 17, 2014 at 10:46 am

Voters in the nation’s second earliest primary state, Illinois, go to the polls tomorrow to choose their party nominees for the fall elections. Though Texas already held its primaries on March 4, its nomination process is not yet complete because the run-off contests are scheduled for May 27. Since Illinois has no secondary election procedure, all nominations will be finalized tomorrow.

Governor

The most intense race on the ballot is the governor’s campaign, as four Republicans vie for the opportunity to face vulnerable Gov. Pat Quinn, who continues to poll as the nation’s weakest Democratic incumbent.

Businessman Bruce Rauner, spending copious amounts of his own money on television advertising, is leading his three GOP opponents in all polls and poised to claim victory tomorrow night. Three surveys  Continue reading >

Illinois Brings Us the First Official 2014 Candidates

In House, Senate on December 4, 2013 at 11:31 am

Illinois, with its partisan primary scheduled for March 18, became the first state to close its filing period, meaning the state’s 2014 political combatants are now official candidates.

The Illinois macro political picture brings us some interesting asides. First, in the congressional delegation, all 18 US House incumbents are seeking re-election, so the Land of Lincoln will feature no open seat campaigns in 2014. Second, each of the 19 federal office holders (including Sen. Dick Durbin) face general election competition. Third, six of the incumbents are drawing primary opposition, though only one appears even potentially serious at the present time.

Senate

In the Senate race, four Republicans are vying for the right to challenge Sen. Durbin, but only one is an experienced contender. State Sen. Jim Oberweis, who has previously  Continue reading >

Candidate Developments

In House, Senate on July 30, 2013 at 11:06 am

Alabama

With resigning Rep. Jo Bonner (R-AL-1) leaving office this Friday, Gov. Robert Bentley (R) announced the schedule for the upcoming replacement special election. With 11 candidates already running, eight of whom are Republicans, the governor has designated Monday, Aug. 5 as the candidate filing deadline. The party primaries will occur on Sept. 24, with run-offs, if necessary, to be held Nov. 5. The special general will then be Dec. 17.

In the unlikely occurrence of candidates from both parties securing a majority of the vote on Sept. 24, and thus clinching their respective nominations, the general election will then move to the Nov. 5 date. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored.

Arkansas

Key political insiders believe that Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) will announce a challenge to Sen. Mark Pryor (D) later this week. Cotton, a freshman, has been considered a potential Pryor opponent almost the day after he was elected to the House, and now his move looks to become official.

The Arkansas Senate seat will likely fall into the highly competitive category, and this should be one of the most important statewide campaigns during the entire election cycle. It is clearly one of the seats that will determine the Senate majority for the next Congress.

Former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D), who forced then-Sen. Blanche Lincoln into a divisive Democratic primary that added to her political woes in 2010, thus leading to her eventual 57-36 percent defeat at the hands of then-Rep. John Boozman (R), has decided not to pursue another statewide Democratic primary battle. Originally announced as a 2014 open seat gubernatorial candidate, Halter announced this week that he is withdrawing from the contest. The action gives former Rep. Mike Ross (D-AR-4) a clear shot for the Democratic nomination that means a virtual sure general election contest with former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR-3). Early polling had given Ross a large lead over Halter, which clearly played into the ex-lieutentant governor’s withdrawal decision.

Illinois

Beginning with the end of World War II until January of this very year, the southwestern Illinois seat anchored in East St. Louis had been represented by only two men: representatives Mel Price (D; 1945-1988) and Jerry Costello (D; 1988-2013). Now, freshman Rep. Bill Enyart (D-IL-12), who won a 52-43 percent victory over former lieutenant governor nominee Jason Plummer (R), has already drawn a significant challenger for his first re-election.
 Continue reading >

DCCC IDs Their Frontline Candidates

In House on March 6, 2013 at 12:47 pm

DCCC

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released the first of their “Frontline” incumbents, those that will get the most attention from the party as they build for re-election. All are either freshmen from competitive districts, won a tough open seat, or defeated a Republican incumbent in 2012.

Rep. Ron Barber (AZ-02) – Barber, who won a special election to replace resigned Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), had a closer than expected general election against former Air Force pilot Martha McSally (R) winning just 50.4 to 49.6 percent. McSally is likely to return in 2014, and with a more favorable turnout model could conceivably score an upset. The fact that Mitt Romney won the seat 50-48 percent bodes well for the challenger, but it didn’t pull her through last November.

Rep. John Barrow (GA-12) – Rep. Barrow drew a second-tier opponent in what should have been a first-tier GOP conversion opportunity. With a projected lower African-American turnout for 2014,  Continue reading >

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