Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Rep. Dan Benishek’

Battleground Michigan

In Governor, House, Polling, Senate on October 9, 2013 at 11:05 am

There’s a great deal of news affecting Michigan politics this week.

First, Republican senatorial nominee Terri Lynn Land announcing that she will report more than $2 million raised in the quarter ending Sept. 30 is clearly a positive sign for her campaign. Irrespective of the fact that $1 million of the money came as a self-funding donation, the aggregate figure suggests that her campaign is off the ground in a significant way. This, coupled with relatively recent polling data projecting that she and Rep. Gary Peters (D-MI-14), the consensus Democratic candidate, are virtually tied, is making the GOP leaders’ case that the open Michigan Senate race will become a highly competitive national campaign.

At the end of the previous quarter, Rep. Peters had already banked more than $1.7 million. His third quarter entry is expected to top $3 million in aggregate dollars raised. The combined Democrat and Republican monetary amounts is beginning to boost this race into the top national tier.

Second, earlier in the week Public Policy Polling, surveying for the MoveOn.org PAC, examined 24 Republican congressional districts in order to test GOP incumbents against the charge that they are solely responsible for shutting down the government. Though the timing of the polling and slanted questionnaires skews the data, some tangible information did come forth. Of the 24 tested Republican House members, seven found themselves trailing a generic Democratic placebo by nine points or more. Three of the seven hail from Michigan.

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI-7), who scored a strong but not overwhelming 53-43 percent win last November in his post-redistricting 7th CD, trailed the generic Democrat 42-51 percent.

Freshman Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-MI-11), who is already facing a strong Republican primary challenger, placed 15 points behind the generic D, 39-54 percent.

The member faring the worst of all 24 tested, sophomore Rep. Dan Benishek (R-MI-1), drops behind a Democratic placebo by 22 full points, 35-57 percent. While these numbers come from polls  Continue reading >

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Union Sequestration Ads Target Seven Republicans

In House, Senate on March 4, 2013 at 10:52 am

With sequestration taking effect at the end of last week, which triggered an automatic $85 billion reduction in FY 2013 spending increases, a quartet of America’s largest labor unions responded by forming a coordinated effort to fire the 2014 election campaign’s first salvo.

The unions, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), and the National Education Association (NEA), financed television ads in a “six-figure buy” against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and six Republican House members who will likely face competitive re-election campaigns next year.

Obviously, a small “six-figure” buy divided among seven individuals in targeted cable markets in March of the off-year means very little in the scope of cementing a negative image against their targets, but it does provide us a glimpse into where the unions and Democratic Party organizations will  Continue reading >

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