Identifying and analyzing emerging trends in campaigns and elections.

Posts Tagged ‘Rep. Debbie Halvorson’

Nebraska Sen. Johanns to Retire

In House, Senate on February 19, 2013 at 11:05 am

In a surprising announcement, first-term Nebraska Sen. Mike Johanns (R), announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election next year. Johanns, a former US Agriculture Secretary, two-term Nebraska governor, mayor, and county commissioner was elected to the Senate in 2008, defeating rancher Scott Kleeb 58-40 percent.

Sen. Johanns appeared to be a lock for a second term, but says he and his wife’s desire to return to “a quieter life” after what will be 32 years in public office at the end of this Congress is what drives his decision.

The seat should easily remain in Republican hands because the Democrats have a weak political bench in the Cornhusker State. With their best possible candidate, former Sen. Bob Kerrey, losing badly to freshman Sen. Deb Fischer (42-58 percent) last November in what was a clear Democratic year nationally, the party leaders and candidates will have a difficult time reaching the realm of competitiveness in 2014.

On the Republican side, the early speculation surrounds popular term-limited Gov. Dave Heineman. Clearly, he would be the party’s strongest candidate should he make the run.

If the governor takes a pass on the race, then look for one or more of the state’s three congressmen to take the leap. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE-1) and Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE-3) are more likely to run than 2nd District Rep. Lee Terry (R). Terry, just appointed chairman of the House Sub-Committee (of Energy & Commerce) on Commerce, Manufacturing, & Trade, may  Continue reading >

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Massachusetts Senate Race Shapes Up; Halvorson Hit by Bloombert; Chafee Down in R.I.

In Governor, House, Polling, Senate on February 1, 2013 at 11:19 am

As predicted, now that the Massachusetts Senate special election is officially underway, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8) jumped into the race. He released an announcement video yesterday declaring his statewide candidacy. From his tweets on Twitter, it is clear that he will attempt to draw a sharp contrast between he and fellow Democratic Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5), his opponent in the party primary to be decided on April 30.

Lynch will position himself as the outsider, versus Markey, who he portrays as the insider, establishment candidate. This might be a very difficult strategy to implement since Massachusetts voters normally support the most entrenched of incumbents.

Congressman Lynch represents downtown Boston and the South Boston area, going as far as Quincy and Brockton before swinging back up toward West Roxbury and Jamaica Plain. Markey, on the other hand, represents the area north of the city commonly known as “Bean Town,” including his home base in Malden and Melrose, before swinging southeast to Revere and then west toward Framingham. Markey will move to secure the left flank of the party base whereas Lynch will attempt to rally the moderates. Markey has a huge financial advantage, beginning the  Continue reading >

Halvorson Strategy Working Early

In Election Analysis, House, Polling on January 25, 2013 at 2:53 pm
Debbie Halvorson

Debbie Halvorson

The first two election surveys have been released for the Feb. 26 special Democratic primary race in Illinois’ 2nd Congressional District, and the polling leader in both instances isn’t who one would expect. Former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL-11), hoping to split the 60 percent-plus, majority African-American voter contingent among at least six well-known black candidates and win with a small plurality coalition of white voters, appears to be in early position to achieve her strategic objective.

The Normington-Petts Democratic survey research firm just completed an internal poll (Jan. 8-10; 400 likely Democratic primary voters) for candidate Toi Hutchinson, who Continue reading >

Brown Shows Interest; No Ohio Re-match; 22 Candidates File in IL-2 Race

In Governor, House, Senate on January 9, 2013 at 12:43 pm

Speculation continues over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown’s political future, but his re-entry path into public life may be clearer after what happened this week. Brown, who lost his Senate seat to former national consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren (D) last month, says he plans to seek public office in the future but has been mum about which office and when.

Because of Sen. John Kerry’s (D) appointment as Secretary of State, a special election to fill his vacated seat will occur later this year. Brown, who despite losing still maintains high favorability ratings from the Bay State electorate, could also run for governor in 2014.

While Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) shows early strength in the Senate race and appears to be on his way of becoming a consensus Democratic Party special election candidate, the gubernatorial contest is not so secure for Massachusetts’ dominant political organization.

Gov. Deval Patrick (D) said a year ago he did not plan to seek a third term in office, thus paving the way for a competitive open seat contest next year. Though Massachusetts is one of the most loyal of Democratic states, Republicans have elected three of its last four governors.
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Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. Resignation is Official

In Governor, House on November 26, 2012 at 1:48 pm

Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL-2)

Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.’s (D-IL-2) resignation from the House became official on Nov. 21, thus starting the special election clock. Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn (D) will make an announcement today setting the election calendar, but local officials in the three-county region that comprises the 2nd District have already asked for a waiver from the scheduling law. Should Quinn agree to bypass the special election timing requirement, judicial approval will be required.

Illinois election law states that the governor has five days to call a special election in the event of a vacancy in Congress or for state office. The vacancy is supposed to be filled within 115 days after the date of resignation, but the county officials are asking that the election be postponed to coincide with their municipal and local elections already scheduled for April 9. The special election law would require that both the nominating and special general elections occur before March 16. Quinn has already indicated that his election calendar plan will be both “… fair to the electorate and as economical as possible for taxpayers,” according to his original statement. It is expected that he will make the election concurrent with the regular municipal election date since the two dates are only three weeks apart.

The election officials have also requested that the governor place the nominating election on the same date as their regularly scheduled municipal and local primary, which is Feb. 26. Since the 2nd District is heavily Democratic, it is this party’s primary vote that will be determinative, as the general election will merely be pro forma. Therefore, it is the February date that becomes critical for this replacement process.

Jackson’s resignation is due to health reasons and an ongoing federal investigation into whether he illegally used campaign funds to cover personal expenses, as outlined in his official letter to Speaker John Boehner.

Expect a large Democratic field to compete in the special primary. Already, former Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL-11), originally elected in the old 11th District but defeated in 2010 after one term, has officially announced her candidacy. She opposed Jackson in the 2012 Democratic primary but secured only 23.6 percent of the vote.

Since Illinois has no run-off, Halvorson is hoping to unify the smaller white vote, which may be enough to secure victory if the African-Americans split among many candidates. IL-2 has a black population of 62.4 percent. Two other majority African-American districts, Tennessee’s 9th CD (Rep. Steve Cohen) and Michigan’s 14th (Rep. Gary Peters), currently send white males to Washington, winning under similar circumstances to what Halvorson hopes will occur in this upcoming special election.

Other individuals said to be considering running to replace Jackson are the former congressman’s brother Jonathan Jackson, prominent local Chicago pastor Corey Brooks, attorney Sam Adam Jr., state senators Toi Hutchison and Donne Trotter, Chicago Aldermen Anthony Beale and Will Burns, and former state Reps. David Miller and Robin Kelly. All are Democrats.

The 2nd District encompasses the south Chicago area in Cook County and includes part of Will County and all of Kankakee.

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